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1:23 pm
May 17, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
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Any serious fantasy football owner knows that a stud running back will likely face a significant decline in fantasy production at the age of 30. Are there exceptions? Is the exact age of decline really 30, or is it 29? How about 31?
The information below will answer a lot of those questions, but in a nutshell, most stud running backs start the decline process at the age of 29, and few are able to play at an "elite" level at the age of 30. A handful of runners have proved productive at age 31, like Priest Holmes, Thomas Jones, Curtis Martin, and Emmitt Smith, but only Curtis Martin (1,697/245/14TDs) was able to produce extremely dominating numbers at the age of 31. As you will read below, Priest Holmes began his 31-age season in a dominating fashion (14TDs in eight games), but he ended up suffering a season-ending injury by mid-season and was never the same again. For the most part, whether it be by way of injury or not, very few running backs will dominate at 31 years of age and it is still extremely rare for NFL running backs to dominate at age 30.
Below we will breakdown some of the biggest running back downfalls of the past and we will also talk about what might be in store for players like LaDainian Tomlinson (30 this season), Brian Westbrook (30 this season), Larry Johnson (29 this season), Jamal Lewis (30 this season) and Thomas Jones (31 this season) entering 2009?
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1:49 pm
May 17, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
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Thoughts, observations or predictions?
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2:03 pm
May 17, 2009
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totfc
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i hope LT has a year or two left atleast ! i think it all depends on the team they are on also and how much the offense needs to depend on a solid running game. LT will lose some ffb value but will be productive for the team for a couple more years imo. i think jamal lewis and thomas jones are both washed up, but look what jones did last year…. who knows until they play the games right.
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2:30 pm
May 17, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
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totfc said:
i hope LT has a year or two left atleast ! i think it all depends on the team they are on also and how much the offense needs to depend on a solid running game. LT will lose some ffb value but will be productive for the team for a couple more years imo. i think jamal lewis and thomas jones are both washed up, but look what jones did last year…. who knows until they play the games right.
Well, history suggests that he could have another solid season left at the age of 30, but two more seasons is VERY unlikely. Having a dominate season at 31 is almost more rare than rushing for 2,000 yards.
LT2 has just so many carries to his name, that's the downside. I venture to say he will play dominate in games played, as I say in the article, but I think his body won't hold up on a full season. He might surprise and last 10-12 games and play like a top 10RB in each one of those games, but missed games seems likely given the history of 30 year-old rushers.
It's an interesting topic and one that still leaves much room for debate.
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5:32 pm
May 17, 2009
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haimez40
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| Hall of Fame | posts 3594 |
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LJ will last forever!!!!LOL I seriously think he has a big bounce back season(I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record).
I think LT2 owners should be woried he looked noticably slower on his cuts last year. I'm not worried about his straight ahead, but his classic side step seems to be very diminished. I don't see him being consistent, but will still have some good games.
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I am driving the Josh Johnson bandwagon……All Aboard
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8:00 pm
May 17, 2009
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SomeRandomOwner
| | First Place | |
| Stud | posts 296 |
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LT will have numbers similar of that from two years ago,.. but not as high… still in the area of 1300 rushing yards, 14 TDs
Westy is there to help educate his back up to understand that you dont need 300+ touches a year when you have 80+ receptions.
LJ,.. faught the law,.. and the ladies will start slapping back.. so settle down already,.. and just remember,.. your lucky to still be playing.. too bad its not at a great level of three years ago.
Jamal Lewis,… too bad that your coach bleeds green, and he is going to trade away Braylon and get back your replacement…
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"To get more yards, it's best to move the ball from the line of scrimmage down the field."
"Usually the team with the most points wins the game!" – John Madden aka Capt. Obvious
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5:34 pm
May 18, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
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haimez40 said:
LJ will last forever!!!!LOL I seriously think he has a big bounce back season(I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record).
I think LT2 owners should be woried he looked noticably slower on his cuts last year. I'm not worried about his straight ahead, but his classic side step seems to be very diminished. I don't see him being consistent, but will still have some good games.
Haimez, I hope you're right, but this sounds like "bias alert" to me!!
We all have bias takes, this is your bias drug of choice. We have accepted that about you. :)
LT2 has much more going for him than LJ, that's for sure. But that's my opinion. Predicting how the body will hold up is tough work.
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8:20 pm
May 18, 2009
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JRMRRT
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| Hall of Fame | posts 4168 |
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I always tell people to trade any RB at age 28 regardless of what they did the year before because that is the year you will get the most value and still have had a good 6 years of production. I own AP and most here know he's my man crush…sorry AP you gone at 28 too.
P.S. glad I drafted Gatrell Johnson
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12 team, full dynasty: Schaub, Stafford, Henne, AP, J Stew, Mendy, Chester, G Johnson, F Summers, AJ, Marshall, Roddy, Colston, Manningham, Jacoby Jones, Robiskie
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10:08 pm
May 18, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
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JRMRRT said:
I always tell people to trade any RB at age 28 regardless of what they did the year before because that is the year you will get the most value and still have had a good 6 years of production. I own AP and most here know he's my man crush…sorry AP you gone at 28 too.
P.S. glad I drafted Gatrell Johnson
Good thing AP is only 24 :)
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1:50 pm
May 19, 2009
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JRMRRT
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| Hall of Fame | posts 4168 |
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Smitty said:
JRMRRT said:
I always tell people to trade any RB at age 28 regardless of what they did the year before because that is the year you will get the most value and still have had a good 6 years of production. I own AP and most here know he's my man crush…sorry AP you gone at 28 too.
P.S. glad I drafted Gatrell Johnson
Good thing AP is only 24 
That's what I'm saying too!!
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12 team, full dynasty: Schaub, Stafford, Henne, AP, J Stew, Mendy, Chester, G Johnson, F Summers, AJ, Marshall, Roddy, Colston, Manningham, Jacoby Jones, Robiskie
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5:08 pm
May 19, 2009
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FarFromHome
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| Hall of Fame | posts 2061 |
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i liked the article….only exception to the rule i believe is westbrook…limited carries early on and him not being your typical nfl rb…he has 2 good season left..
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"…and on the 7th day god rested….but on that day the greatest fantasy football mind was born…his name was FarFromHome…and he was good…" Genesis 13:15
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11:58 pm
May 19, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
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FarFromHome said:
i liked the article….only exception to the rule i believe is westbrook…limited carries early on and him not being your typical nfl rb…he has 2 good season left..
Should be interesting to see if Westy can do it. Remember, injury can't be blamed on a Westy downfall, if there is a downfall… because injury is part of a lot of these 30+ downfalls.
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9:10 am
May 20, 2009
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SomeRandomOwner
| | First Place | |
| Stud | posts 296 |
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Smitty said:
FarFromHome said:
i liked the article….only exception to the rule i believe is westbrook…limited carries early on and him not being your typical nfl rb…he has 2 good season left..
Should be interesting to see if Westy can do it. Remember, injury can't be blamed on a Westy downfall, if there is a downfall… because injury is part of a lot of these 30+ downfalls.
I think Westy downfall is the rookie RB they have behind him.
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"To get more yards, it's best to move the ball from the line of scrimmage down the field."
"Usually the team with the most points wins the game!" – John Madden aka Capt. Obvious
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