Ranking The Rookie Running Backs
1. Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers)
I’ll admit, when Rashard Mendenhall was selected by
the Steelers with the No. 23 overall pick, my initial reaction was that
he could have landed in a better spot. The truth is, Pittsburgh is an
excellent landing spot for Mendy. The elite talent is now going to be the focal point of one of the most powerful offenses in the entire league. How is Joseph Addai looking these days? Addai, like Mendy, was drafted into a situation where another runner was set to start. In fact, Joseph Addai didn’t start one single game in his rookie campaign (2006), but he got
his touches and that potent Indy offensive attack took care of the
rest. Granted, “Fast Willie Parker” is a bit better than a Dominic Rhodes, but let’s not get carried away here with FWP… he had already dropped out of our top 30 overall before Saturday’s 2008 NFL Draft ever began, and he certainly didn’t have a long career ahead of him even before the Mendenhall selection. Guys like Parker aren’t built to be full-time rushers, and they never last. Parker still has talent, don’t get me wrong, but this is Mendenhall’s team now and he is going to be a top 10 fantasy runner for years and
years to come. He should have a nice rookie season, possibly posting
top 12-15 fantasy running back numbers, but his breakout year could be
in 2009. Next year, Mendenhall might be a top 7-9 overall pick.
2. Darren McFadden (Raiders)
This is a great place for Darren McFadden, who is about as explosive as they come. Granted, I do have Mendenhall ranked higher for the long-term, but if forced to draft just for the 2008 season alone, I may go with McFadden.. but it sure is close! You don’t get selected No. 4 overall and ride the bench, so D-Mac is going to get used a ton right from Week 1. I think that Mendy will as well, but because there are some questions about ration of carries between Mendenhall and Parker (at least in the early weeks of the 2008 season), McFadden gets the 2008 edge. Jonathan Stewart also commands consideration with this #2RB spot, but I’m just not thrown off at all with either landing spot for McFadden or Mendenhall, so nothing changes for me post-draft (at least for the top 3 running backs). I predict that McFadden puts up top 11-14 fantasy running back numbers in 2008 and is a top
10-12 overall talent entering fresh 2009 dynasty league drafts.
3. Jonathan Stewart (Panthers)
Let me first start off by saying that I like Jonathan Stewart a lot… and I like his future value a ton. When all is said and done,
this draft class may end up producing three elite talents. That said, I
honestly don’t understand why so many fantasy owners are liking this
Carolina landing spot more than Rashard Mendenhall’s landing spot in Pittsburgh, or Darren McFadden’s landing spot in Oakland. Carolina has a solid QB/WR combo in Jake Delhomme/Steve Smith,
but Pittsburgh is loaded with even more talent… talent that leads to
tremendously effective rushing attacks. As I just stated up above, Joseph Addai is blowing up in Indy, but a lot of his success has to be attributed to
that system. He is a great runner, but he is a system guy and he often
has ample room to run and he is often in great field position. You’re
going to see the same results with Mendenhall in Pittsburgh… the only thing is, I think Mendenhall is even more talented! Again, none of this is to take away from Jonathan Stewart, or his new home in Carolina, but I cannot move Stewart up to the #1 or #2 rookie running back spot based on his situation. I do see Stewart having a real productive season in 2008. If he can stay healthy, which
is a concern of mine, I see no reason he can’t get close to Mendenhall and McFadden numbers in 2008. As for the future, I see no reason Stewart can get up into the top 12-15 overall range for dynasty running backs.
4. Matt Forte (Bears)
The Bears don’t believe in Cedric Benson (broken ankle) anymore, and his recent ankle surgery is
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