So, below is our most recent 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (six rounds with commentary), which is based off of standard scoring (non-PPR) and the line-up requirements of: 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRS, 1TE, 1K, 1DST. Enjoy!
Draft Completed: 6/21/09
There is no question here. AP can score 18+ touchdowns during any given season. If you have the No. 1 pick in any format, don’t hesitate taking Peterson.
If healthy, double-digit scores and 60-70 receptions almost feels like a lock. Hopefully the little guy can stay healthy with a heavier workload, but his smaller-type frame is a unique one… one that we believe can hold up on 240-250 carries.
FFX was one of the only fantasy football informational sites out there that had this guy pegged as a top 5-10 fantasy back heading into 2008 – The exact article title is: Turner To Be A Top 10RB? Expect more of the same this year!
Health is always a concern with S-Jax, but the 25 year-old can be a top 2-3 overall player during any given season. With a much improved offensive line, and with Donnie Avery about to breakout, Jackson is primed for a monster season.
A top 4 ranking can be argued heading into 2009. Forte is the real deal and the addition of Jay Cutler might only make Forte more dangerous!
Many have this guy ranked as low as top 12-15 overall — Use ADPs to your advantage heading into your August drafts, because this rusher is still a top 5-8 fantasy talent, we don’t care what anyone says.
While we’re a bit skeptical about his long-term value given his smaller-type frame, he is without question a top 10 overall pick entering 2009. Again, this is a redraft mock, but it’s worth mentioning that Johnson is a great sell-high player in dynasty formats.
It just feels wrong to rank him this low after a 20TD season, but Jonathan Stewart makes it tough to slot Williams any higher than this. Was 2008 a fluke? Only time will tell, but after that 2008 campaign, D-Will has to be a top 8-12 pick. Just be sure to draft Stewart at almost any cost if you plan to roll with Williams as your first player taken.
While many are doubting LT2 entering 2009, we suggest that fantasy owners take full advantage! Even with the 30 Years-Old RB Theory hanging over his head, LT2 has another top 10RB season left in the tank. Potential steal of the draft!
With Tom Brady back in 2009, we expect another 15+ touchdown season out of Randy. What has changed? Nothing! It’s back to business as usual in New England. As you will read later, Brady is the real bargain this year!
It was tough slotting Fitzgerald below Moss at first glance, but given that Fitzgerald is still inside our top 12 overall, clearly we’re giving him insane respect. Moss is the home run and Fitzgerald appears to be a safe top five lock at his position.
Again, it can be argued that Johnson deserves to be the first receiver taken on draft day, but his injury history has us slotting him in the third spot. He is still in our top 12-14 in all formats. This is the first season we have ever ranked three receivers inside the top 12 overall.
Westbrook’s ADP is falling fast due to his ankle injury (and presence of LeSean McCoy). Use this fantasy worldwide panic to your advantage and just be sure to handcuff Westy to McCoy — Together, the duo could produce top five overall fantasy numbers in ‘09. Westy might be the steal of 2009 drafts when all is said and done.
Portis will be 28 when the season begins, so his downfall is certainly on the horizon. He should have one more solid season left, but he has carried the football over 2,000 times during his seven NFL seasons — Shaun Alexander fell off the face of the earth during his 29-age season, but he did crank out elite numbers at the age of 28. Can Portis with 2,000 carries in the rear view?
Injuries are always a concern when it comes to Jacobs, but if the Giants give him the right amount of carries and do not overwork him, he should crank out 900-1,000 yards rushing and double-digit touchdowns. If the Giants overwork him early on, Jacobs will kickoff the season on pace for 1,400 yards and 15TDs, but he won’t reach those totals if he isn’t on the field come Week 8.
The Colts will be much improved this year, especially in terms of the offensive line. Expect Peyton Manning to bounce-back in a major way in 2009, which means Wayne is in for a big season.
While we have our long-term concerns with Slaton, it’s tough to let him fall any further than this. Most will consider us crazy for ranking him this low entering ‘09, but we have some sophomore slump concerns given his 200-pound frame. This is a redraft mock, but sell-high in dynasty leagues!
Johnson is an elite receiver now — Our only concern is with that Lions’ offense. Hopefully Matthew Stafford gains control of that offense quickly. The good news is that if the Lions start playing from behind often, Calvin will see a ton of targets.
Colston’s microfracture surgery was a minor one compared to most – Expect him to be a top five wide receiver in 2009 and beyond!
Not everyone agrees with this one here at FFX, but some staffers here (especially Smitty) feel that Brown could be one of the biggest steals in 2009 fantasy football drafts. Brown was as good as Adrian Peterson for the first eight games of the 2007 NFL season, but an ACL injury cut that campaign short. His first season back from injury was last year, and while it usually takes runners who suffer ACL tears a full season of playing on the knee before they bounce-back to form, Brown showed flashes of brilliance at times during that first season back. The team has major faith in Brown, as that Dolphins’ coaching staff made the runner a major part of that exciting Wildcat package last season — Expect a surprisingly solid fantasy season out of Brown in 2009! How solid? Try top 8-10 fantasy running back numbers! Enjoy getting him even later than this, as Brown’s ADP is easily in the third- to fourth-round right now.
Barber might not have a long NFL career, at least as a full-time starter, but he has a good 1-2 years left before his value starts to drop. Since this is a redraft fantasy football mock draft, this is the perfect spot for Barber. If not overworked, Barber should rush for roughly 900-1,000 yards and have a strong shot at scoring double-digit touchdowns. The right amount of carries is the key to Barber’s 2009 health and success. Getting overworked could lead to injury, just like we mentioned up above with Jacobs!
As stated above with Wayne, Manning and that Colts passing attack should rebound in a major way in 2009. That offensive line will be much improved and Manning will look more like a 35-40TD passer this season.
It can be argued that Brees deserves to be the No. 1 quarterback taken on draft day, but it’s awfully close. Consider Manning, Brees and Brady all extremely close in ‘09.
With defenses planning to shutdown Turner in 2009, and with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, White could have his best season yet.
Below is an older mock draft we did back in January of 2009. How quickly things change. To continue viewing the mock draft listed above, click here. Again, below is an older mock draft for your viewing pleasure.
Below is an Early 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft. This is a One-Man Fantasy Football Xtreme Mock Draft that is six rounds in length. I have provided commentary for each round. Keep in mind that this mock draft is based off of a standard scoring format (non-PPR).
*** The below mock draft was performed BEFORE the 2009 NFL Draft, so view our most recent mock draft here.
Draft Date: 1/3/09
SMITTY: DeAngelo Williams was a beast in 2008, rushing for 1,518 yards and scoring 20 total touchdowns. While I can’t help but be excited for Williams‘ 2009 run, I think the safest draft approach in 2009, when it comes to Williams, is to let someone else take him in the top five. I think Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook and Steven Jackson will all be safer bets in 2009. If Jonathan Stewart was not in the picture over in Carolina, I’d probably slot Williams No. 3 or No. 4 overall… It’s not like Williams won’t get similar carries in 2009 as he received in 2008, as J-Stew was playing quite a bit last season, but will the 15+ touchdowns be there for Williams again in 2009? His 1,518 yards was absolutely sick, but he only caught 22 passes last year and it was really his 20 total touchdowns that landed him the No. 1 fantasy running back slot in 2008. I could change my mind on this as the 2009 season approaches (know that), but for now I say draft DeAngelo No. 6 overall at the earliest.
Keep an eye on Ronnie Brown this off-season. I have him slotted extremely high in this mock draft, I know… That said, I’m kind of making a statement here. Ronnie Brown is one of the most phenomenal ACL recovery stories fantasy worlds have witnessed at the running back position (view our Injury Dictionary)… Brown didn’t finish the 2008 season insanely strong, but considering that he suffered a torn ACL in Week 7 of last year, the runner played brilliantly in 2008… In fact, at times Ronnie looked like a top 5RB. The mediocre performances should make the Miami running back cheaper than he should be come draft day, but a strong playoff campaign could change all that — Keep that in mind. So, given how well Brown played in 2008 at less than 100% , and given how much that Miami offense depends on Brown (Wildcat formations), I expect the 5th-year player to have a monster ‘09 campaign!
SMITTY: The biggest steal in this round could be LaDainian Tomlinson. He could also be the biggest flop. LT2 will be one of the toughest players to value heading into 2009 — His ADP will likely be all over the place all the way up to August drafts. You either believe or you don’t… I’m not going to spend much time on that… just know that he will likely fall into the second-round in 2009 — That is good news for those of you who project a top 5-10 running back season out of the guy.
I truly anticipate 2009 being the year Peyton Manning explodes again. I think the Colts QB will carry fantasy owners all season long, much like he did in back in 2004, the season that he tossed 49 regular-season touchdowns. Manning scored 417.65 fantasy points that year… to put that into perspective, Drew Brees, this past season’s top fantasy QB, scored 372.35 points (using the same scoring format). I’m not saying Manning will absolutely toss for 49TDs in ‘09, but I expect a 400+ point campaign out of the passer… and I’m not going to rule out 40+ touchdown passes.
Clinton Portis might be a little low at No. 21 overall, but I just couldn’t slot him ahead of all those fine players above him. I think 15-22 is a safe spot for Portis.
I like Steve Slaton a lot heading into ‘09, and I think he could have a fantastic NFL career, but for now, I just can’t place him inside my top 12 overall. I think fantasy worlds will see Slaton go in the top 10-12 in a lot of August drafts, and while he could possibly earn that draft value, I just see Ronnie Brown, Maurice Jones-Drew, Joseph Addai and Marion Barber as safer options. Even Marshawn Lynch could prove to be a more secure RB1 in 2009. I know this slotting of Slaton will upset some Slaton believers out there, but not everybody can sit at the big boy’s table.
SMITTY: As I said above, Manning is my clear No. 1 fantasy QB heading into ‘09, but Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Tony Romo all arguably have the talent to finish as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback during any given fantasy season… I predict this upcoming season to be the “Year of Quarterbacks.”
In 2009, Roddy White will finally get WR1 respect – It’s well deserved. Marques Colston, Steve Smith (CAR) and Greg Jennings could all slip relatively far come August (late third-round), which means waiting on wide receivers could prove to be the best plan of attack come ‘09 fantasy draft day.
Where will Larry Johnson and Thomas Jones finish in 2009? Will either back fall this far come August? My guess is that LJ will, but T-Jones will not. It’s tough to slot either back at this point in January, 2009, especially after Jones just scored 15 total touchdowns in 2008… but my gut tells me that Jones won’t even come close to repeating his 2008 numbers this upcoming fantasy season. Selecting Jones anywhere near the bottom of round two could lead to serious disappointment.
SMITTY: Willie Parker is a tough runner to rank heading into ‘09, but the key to drafting FWP next season is to also grab both Mewelde Moore and Rashard Mendenhall. With all three runners handcuffed together, FWP should make an outstanding fourth player, and quite possibly a very secure RB2.
If you take a look at last year’s stats, you will notice that Braylon Edwards pulled in just 55 receptions on 138 targets. That’s a lot of targets! It’s no secret that Edwards led the league in 2008 in dropped passes, but he also went through four quarterbacks. The drops need to be acknowledged, because Edwards dropped a lot of catchable passes, but if you’re doubting Edwards in 2009, I urge you to reflect on his 2007 campaign (80 receptions, 1,289 yards and 16TDs)… and i urge you to reflect on his 2008 quarterback situation… You can’t throw an eighty-catch season with 16 scores out the window due to one bad season under four passers. Braylon in the fourth-round could end up being one of the biggest steals in 2009 drafts. In fact, Braylon at the bottom of the third-round could end up being one of the biggest steals in 2009 drafts.
Another interesting receiver to analyze based on 2008 Target Stats is Wes Welker. Welker had an unbelievable 150 targets in 2008. He also had 112 receptions for 1,165 yards, but he only managed to score three times. With Tom Brady expected back in ‘09, Welker should have no problem scoring at least 7-10 times… Welker could be a steal this upcoming fantasy football season!
Pierre Thomas could go as high as the late second-round to early third-round in 2009, but for the moment, I just can’t rank him ahead of potential low-end WR1s.
As for sleepers… Santonio Holmes and Dwayne Bowe could both end up being this year’s version of Roddy White.
SMITTY: Keep an eye on Earnest Graham’s ADP as the off-season moves along. With Cadallic Williams (patellar tendon) likely out for all of 2009, and with Warrick Dunn entering the 2009 season at the age of 34, opportunity is once again there for Graham (unless the Bucs draft a rookie runner early). It will be interesting to see how Graham’s mock draft value fluctuates in the coming months.
Chad Ocho Cinco and Plaxico Burress could both be bargains in 2009 drafts. Both are big risks in ‘09, but given the cost, both should be worth the investment. Chad will likely rebound in ‘09, and could even get traded out of Cincy this off-season… and Burress just finished serving his four-game suspension and could return to New York next season. Even though Plax will not play during the 2008-2009 NFL Playoffs, Giants GM Jerry Reese is expected to sit down with him after the playoffs to discuss his future with the team. I suspect that the team will bring Burress back in 2009, but he still has a lot of legal issues to work out — Monitor his situation!
SMITTY: Players that I think could soon climb their way into the above round, if not higher, are Ryan Torain, Cedric Benson, Laurence Maroney, Ted Ginn, LenDale White, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Lance Moore, Leon Washington, Owen Daniels, Steve Breaston, Anthony Gonzalez, Hines Ward and a few others.
Players like Warner (impending free agent), McNabb, L. White, Gonzalez, Ward, Ginn and Breaston could especially move up quickly depending on their playoff performances. Even without strong playoff outings, any single one of these players is capable of being drafted inside the first six rounds in 2009.
Also, Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain and Ray Rice are all currently slotted in a row at 65, 66 and 67. By August we might have a clear indication as to what runner will be starting in Baltimore in 2009… so two of those three Ravens rushers will likely fall out of the top six rounds come August… and the one anointed starter could possibly move up a handful of rounds, if not higher.
Another player to watch is Matt Cassel. Cassel stepped up in a major way in 2008, replacing an injured Tom Brady… he will likely land a huge contract this off-season, unless he gets franchise tagged, so keep in mind that his value could be all over the map come August. Also keep an eye on both Rashard Mendenhall and Cedric Benson… both players could see a huge bump in fantasy value if the opportunity is there.
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Feel free to post comments here, Xtremers! Who are your sleepers? What players will end up being 2009 busts?
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