Any serious fantasy football owner knows that a stud running back will likely face a significant decline in fantasy production at the age of 30. Are there exceptions? Is the exact age of decline really 30, or is it 29? How about 31?
The information below will answer a lot of those questions, but in a nutshell, most stud running backs start the decline process at the age of 29, and few are able to play at an "elite" level at the age of 30. A handful of runners have proved productive at age 31, like Priest Holmes, Curtis Martin, and Emmitt Smith, but only Curtis Martin (1,697/245/14TDs) was able to produce extremely dominating numbers at the age of 31. As you will read below, Priest Holmes began his 31-age season in a dominating fashion (14TDs in eight games), but he ended up suffering a season-ending injury by mid-season and was never the same again. For the most part, whether it be by way of injury or not, very few running backs will dominate at 31 years of age and it is still extremely rare for NFL running backs to dominate at age 30.
Below we will breakdown some of the biggest running back downfalls of the past and we will also talk about what might be in store for players like LaDainian Tomlinson (30 this season), Brian Westbrook (30 this season), Larry Johnson (29 this season), Jamal Lewis (30 this season) and Thomas Jones (31 this season) entering 2009?
Year |
Age |
Games |
Att |
Yrds |
TDs |
Avg |
Rec |
Yrds |
TDs |
1997 |
24 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1998 |
25 |
16 |
233 |
1008 |
7 |
4.3 |
43 |
260 |
0 |
1999 |
26 |
9 |
89 |
506 |
1 |
5.7 |
13 |
104 |
1 |
2000 |
27 |
16 |
137 |
588 |
2 |
4.3 |
32 |
221 |
0 |
2001 |
28 |
16 |
327 |
1555 |
8 |
4.8 |
62 |
614 |
2 |
2002 |
29 |
14 |
313 |
1615 |
21 |
5.2 |
70 |
672 |
3 |
2003 |
30 |
16 |
320 |
1420 |
27 |
4.4 |
74 |
690 |
0 |
2004 |
31 |
8 | 196 |
892 |
14 |
4.6 |
19 |
187 |
1 |
2005 |
32 |
7 |
119 |
451 |
6 |
3.8 |
21 |
197 |
1 |
2007 |
34 |
4 |
46 |
137 |
0 |
3.0 |
5 |
17 |
0 |
= Slow decline in motion |
|
= Official downfall |
As you will see below, almost no NFL runners are able to stay productive when they enter a season already 31 years of age. In fact, it’s tough enough for some of the league’s best rushers to remain productive at age 30, but Priest Holmes was one of those rare exceptions to the rule. At 30, Holmes produced one of the best fantasy running back seasons ever in the history of fantasy football. He rushed for 1,420 yards, pulled in 74 passes for 690 yards and scored 27TDs — That’s insane at 30 years of age! Holmes then started his 31-age season on a tear, scoring 14TDs in eight games, but his season was cut short due to a season-ending injury. Per start, Holmes was elite at age 31, but because injury took him out after eight games, 2004 can be considered that "downfall" season for Holmes. "The Priest" rushed for just 451 yards and scored just 6TDs in 2005, the season he entered at 32 years of age. Holmes played just one more season after that, but only rushed the football 46 times for 137 yards.
Year |
Age |
Games |
Att |
Yrds |
TDs |
Avg |
Rec |
Yrds |
TDs |
2000 |
23 |
16 |
64 |
313 |
2 |
4.9 |
5 |
41 |
0 |
2001 |
24 |
16 |
309 |
1318 |
14 |
4.3 |
44 |
343 |
2 |
2002 |
25 |
16 |
295 |
1175 |
16 |
4.0 |
59 |
460 |
2 |
2003 |
26 |
16 |
326 |
1435 |
14 |
4.4 |
42 |
295 |
2 |
2004 |
27 |
16 |
353 |
1696 |
16 |
4.8 |
23 |
170 |
4 |
2005 |
28 |
16 |
370 |
1880 |
27 |
5.1 |
15 |
78 |
1 |
2006 |
29 |
10 | 252 |
896 |
7 |
3.6 |
12 |
48 |
0 |
2007 |
30 |
13 |
207 |
716 |
4 |
3.5 |
14 |
76 |
1 |
2008 |
31 |
4 |
11 |
24 |
0 |
2.2 |
1 |
9 |
0 |
= Slow decline in motion |
|
= Official downfall |
Again, the rule of thumb with stud running backs is that they can usually play at that elite level when entering a season at 29, and on rare occasion when they enter a season at 30, but Shaun Alexander didn’t even make it to 30. Alexander had one of the best fantasy running back seasons ever in 2005, at the age of 28, but he missed six games the following season and was never the same again. He went from scoring 27TDs at age 28 to scoring 7, 4 and 0 at the ages 29, 30 and 31.
Year |
Age |
Games |
Att |
Yrds |
TDs |
Avg |
Rec |
Yrds |
TDs |
1994 |
21 |
16 |
314 |
1282 |
11 |
4.1 |
52 |
522 |
1 |
1995 |
22 |
16 |
289 |
1078 |
11 |
3.7 |
56 |
475 |
3 |
1996 |
23 |
13 |
198 |
587 |
7 |
3.0 |
56 |
428 |
0 |
1997 |
24 |
16 |
264 |
1054 |
7 |
4.0 |
47 |
471 |
1 |
1998 |
25 |
16 |
324 |
1319 |
6 |
4.1 |
86 |
908 |
4 |
1999 |
26 |
16 |
253 |
1381 |
7 |
5.5 |
87 |
1048 |
5 |
2000 |
27 |
14 |
253 |
1359 |
18 |
5.4 |
81 |
830 |
8 |
2001 |
28 |
14 |
260 |
1382 |
12 |
5.3 |
83 |
765 |
9 |
2002 |
29 |
14 |
212 |
953 |
8 |
4.5 |
80 |
537 |
2 |
2003 |
30 |
11 |
209 |
818 |
10 |
3.9 |
45 |
290 |
1 |
2004 |
31 |
14 |
195 |
774 |
3 |
4.0 |
50 |
310 |
1 |
2005 |
32 |
- |
1 |
65 |
0 |
4.5 |
44 |
291 |
1 |
= Slow decline in motion |
|
= Official downfall |
Marshall Faulk’s decline actually began in 2002, a season he entered at the age of 29. Now, he still had two more relatively productive campaigns at ages 29 and 30, but that 2003 season was the season that Faulk missed five games — He was never the same ever again. Faulk only rushed for 774 yards and scored just four total touchdowns in 2004, the season he entered at the age of 31. Faulk declined in fantasy value due to injuries from when he was 30, but because he still had 11 touchdowns in 10 games played, we consider his downfall season the season he entered at the age of 31 (2004).
Year |
Age |
Games |
Att |
Yrds |
TDs |
Avg |
Rec |
Yrds |
TDs |
1995 |
22 |
16 |
368 |
1487 |
14 |
4.0 |
30 |
261 |
1 |
1996 |
23 |
16 |
316 |
1152 |
14 |
3.6 |
46 |
333 |
3 |
1997 |
24 |
13 |
274 |
1160 |
4 |
4.2 |
41 |
296 |
1 |
1998 |
25 |
15 |
369 |
1287 |
8 |
3.5 |
43 |
365 |
1 |
1999 |
26 |
16 |
367 |
1464 |
5 |
4.0 |
45 |
259 |
0 |
2000 |
27 |
16 |
316 |
1204 |
9 |
3.8 |
70 |
508 |
2 |
2001 |
28 |
16 |
333 |
1513 |
10 |
4.5 |
53 |
320 |
0 |
2002 |
29 |
16 |
261 |
1094 |
7 |
4.2 |
49 |
362 |
0 |
2003 |
30 |
16 |
323 |
1308 |
2 |
4.0 |
42 |
262 |
0 |
2004 |
31 |
16 |
371 |
1697 |
12 |
4.6 |
41 |
245 |
2 |
2005 |
32 |
12 |
220 |
735 |
5 |
3.3 |
24 |
118 |
0 |
= Slow decline in motion |
|
= Official downfall |
Again, Priest Holmes was able to dominate at the start of his 31-age season, scoring 14TDs in eight games, but injury took out Holmes at mid-season and he was never the same again… Curtis Martin is really the only recent player to ever play at an "elite" level for a full-season at age 31. Martin was phenomenal during that 31-age season, but as you can see above, he just couldn’t reproduce that dominance at the age of 32. Martin is the exception to the rule when it comes to playing at a high level at 32 years of age. Other rushers, like Holmes and Emmitt Smith, have had a cup of coffee with 31-age dominance, but only Martin truly pulled it off.
Jerome Bettis rushed for 941 yards and 13TDs at the age of 32 — Bettis averaged just 3.8 yards per carry during that 2004 season with the Steelers, and during the two seasons prior, he only rushed for 811 yards and 666 yards… and during those two prior seasons, he didn’t reach 10 scores in either. Bettis’ 32-age season in 2004 was quite an anomaly and his success that season had much to do with the Steelers’ goal line situations that season. While we wouldn’t categorize this 32-age season by Bettis as an "elite" and dominating season, it is one of the most interesting 32-age seasons ever by a running back.
While he was clearly declining compared to his previous year’s stats, Emmitt Smith was able to crank out 1,203 rushing yards and 9TDs at the age of 31. Emmitt was never the same again after that 31-age season. Smith had 1,397 yards rushing and 13TDs at the age of 30.
Eddie George managed to rush for 1,031 yards at the age of 30, but his touchdowns dropped from 12 to 5 that season. George played just one more season at the age of 31 and rushed for just 432 yards.
Barry Sanders retired after his 30-age season, a year he rushed for 1,491 yards and 4TDs. He rushed for 2,053 yards and 11TDs one year earlier at the age 29. We can only speculate as to how good Sanders would have been if he had played through 31.
Eric Dickerson ran for 1,311 yards and 7TDs at the age of 29 (1988), but ran for 677, 536, 729 and 91 at ages 30-33. He had 1,659 rushing yards and 14TDs at the age of 28.
LT2 had a solid year last season (at 29). No one really talks about his quiet 1,110-yard season with 12 total scores. Instead, everyone is busy predicting LT2’s decline. Are the doubters predicting the obvious, or will Tomlinson be one of those rare studs that can put together one more elite campaign at the age of 30? If anyone can enter an NFL season at the age of 30 and still produce it’s Tomlinson… Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk and Thomas Jones proved it possible, so it’s not crazy to think that LT2 will take care of business in 2009. However, the numbers working against LT2 are his 2,658 NFL carries. He has carried the football under 300 times just once during his dominating career, and that was last year. Is that a sign of decline? My prediction is this: Tomlinson will dominate in the games he plays in 2009, but injury will strike after Week 8 or 9 and then the runner will never be the same from that point forward. I know that is speculative, but those 2,658 carries will come into play as the body naturally breaks down at the age of 30.
Like Tomlinson, Westbrook didn’t get a lot of credit for his 2008 campaign. He managed to rack-up 1,338 total yards and 14 total scores on just 14 games, but it’s the missing of games that seems to have fantasy owners concerned entering 2009. While Westy did have a decent 2008 fantasy season, he did drop off a ton from his prior season. In 2007, Westy produced 2,104 ru/rec yards and scored 12 times. That’s a relatively big drop off, but that doesn’t mean Westbrook can’t put together one more solid season. I predict that Westy follows the same path as LT2 in 2009. I predict that Westbrook produces in solid fashion to start the 2009 season, but his injuries will get worse and will linger throughout the entire second-half of the 2009 season. We will never see the same Westy after that, as injuries, not lack of talent, will hold him back. Enter LeSean McCoy — The combo of the two will produce top 5 fantasy numbers at season’s end, though.
While Johnson is an extra year younger than Westbrook and Tomlinson, he is in an awful situation over in Kansas City. He may or may not get cut, and that may or may not improve his 2009 opportunity, but as of now LJ has a lot going against him. His team doesn’t believe in him and he is entering 2009 at the age of 29. While he doesn’t have near as many carries as Tomlinson or Westbrook, he does have a 416-carry season in the rear view. Our guess is that fantasy owners will never see a 10-plus touchdown version of LJ ever again. Rushing for 1,000-yards one more time isn’t out of the question, but we wouldn’t count on it.
Many doubted Thomas Jones entering last season, but he had a fantastic 2008, cranking out 1,312 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns at the age of 30… but he will turn 31 just before the 2009 season kicks off, so history suggests that Jones will be a non-factor when all is said and done in 2009. Curtis Martin has really been the only runner in recent history to dominate at the age of 31, and given the Jets traded up to draft Shonn Greene in 2009, a downward spiral seems inevitable for T-Jones. Enter Shonn Greene!
Jamal Lewis had a decent 2008 campaign, rushing for 1,002 yards and 4TDs on 16 games. Lewis has rushed for under 1,000 yards just once in his eight NFL seasons. That’s a remarkable stat. Even more impressive, Lewis has played at least 15 games in seven of his eight NFL seasons. Lewis has been amazingly durable. Will he be one of those rare runners to enter a season at the age of 30 and still perform at a high level? We doubt it. If we had to guess, Lewis, like so many other elite runners, will stumble early at the age of 30. Durable or not, Lewis carries around a lot of weight and if 30 is the magic downfall number for most stud running backs, a guy Jamal’s size will have a tough time staying on the field. Sorry Lewis owners, but you won’t find us hanging on for one more ride. Enter James Davis!
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Any thoughts? Predictions? Observations?
Would you consider Portis to be on that list as well? He is 28 I believe but his wheels have been running for a long time. It great info to know but a shame that the life span of a stud RB is a small window.
For 2009 the first name that popped into my head is Thomas Jones followed by any one of the Patriot RBs. And lastly would be the start of the decline of Brian Westbrook.
I am curious about guys like Michael Turner who are a bit older but were not every down backs throughout much of their careers. Do they last longer, to 31 or 32 or is the deciding factor age rather than touches?
I view all of the aforementioned RBs as RB2 candidates, at best, period. Depending on your league, it is likely that you can find better value by either drafting a top WR; a younger, less risky RB2 with more upside such as Steve Slaton, Brandon Jacobs; or even a top-flight QB than you would get by drafting one of these aging studs.
We have a rookie draft before the actual NFL draft. I am going to keep my 4th pick of the first round, Michael Crabtree. I don’t expect more than 900 yards or so this season but it is a keeper league so next year he will cost me $16. I also selected Gatrell Johnson and Cedric Peerman, they will be $5 this season and $10 in 2010.
Do you think G. Johnson has any shot of taking over for L.T. in 2010? In order to keep him I would have to let Mike Walker go, he will cost me $4 this year and $8 in 2010.
ThomasMagnumPI: I don’t think it matters too much, as the body can only function at a certain level at certain ages. I mean, a guy like Turner could have another year left because he started late, but my guess is that we would have more examples of that if that were really the case. History is a strong indication and it suggests 30 is the last year most studs will perform at a high level, and only a select few will get it done at 31. And only the Steelers can get a 3.8 per carry back 13TDs at the age of 32
cnl1975: Johnson has a shot. We will have to see him in action, though. I like him and would give him the shot, but the Chargers could draft a runner next year. That happens often and running backs fall far these days, so any team can land a bargain rusher, like Shonn Greene this year and R. Jennings. Those guys all fell extremely far and a team like San Diego could take advantage next year.
[...] a good piece this weekend over at Fantasy Football Xtreme about a few running backs nearing or hitting that age when production begins to decline significantly. All of these guys have substantial fantasy relevance — LaDainian Tomlinson, [...]
Oh let us not forget about Larry Johnson who I think will be dethrowned by Charles.
Jamal Lewis is the other back I was noticing as well. He’s be up there in age however the Browns want him to be very active like T. JOnes was for the jets last year.
Thanks for the great info Smitty, again always usefull.
LT will shock the Fantasy Football world with top 5 #’s in 2009!!!
Thanks, Wutthecrapman. I agree, LJ is a tough runner to count on this year. Jamal is just too big I think. Anything can happen, and again, 30-age rushers can still get it done on rare occasions.
Yea, footballjunkie81… it is possible at 30. A handful have done it and if anyone can produce at 30 to get into that rare class, it’s LT2. Again, I think he will turn heads like you say, but get hurt after mid-season. Maybe he makes it to Week 10 or 12. Who knows…
[...] Whether they left or not, many running backs, especially recently, have seen a large decline in their performance after turning 30 years of age, as reported by FantasyFootballXtreme. [...]
[...] Whether they left or not, many running backs, especially recently, have seen a large decline in their performance after turning 30 years of age, as reported by FantasyFootballXtreme. [...]