2009 Fantasy Football Start and Bench Advice: Week 3

09/23/2009 2:51 am by in Start Bench Advice

Here is our Week 3 Fantasy Football Start and Bench Advice for the 2009 Fantasy Football Season. Start ‘EM & Sit ‘Em Advice was meant to be bold, yet calculated. We know that and we understand that. We also understand that fantasy owners aren’t looking for answers to the obvious questions, which is why we have addressed more dilemma-like situations entering Week 3 of the 2009 fantasy football season.


Smitty’s Week 3 Thoughts

Get Ready For The Show!

Week 3 is finally here… before we jump into Week 3 predictions and projections, first let’s reflect back on some Ronnie Brown action. This time least week, people were more concerned about a RBBC in Miami than they were about the Swine FLU. Last week I wrote:

"Doubt Ronnie Brown all you want — Sure, he didn’t deliver in Week 1, but it is just that… Week 1. DeAngelo Williams scored 18 rushing touchdowns last year, yet he scored roughly eight fantasy points during Week 1 last season. Don’t sell-low based on one week, and consider investing if the Brown owner in your league is looking to jump ship. Take full advantage of that! Brown faces the Colts in Week 2, a rushing defense that ranked 21st last season against the run and is currently ranked 23rd after one week of action. The Colts surrendered 114 rushing yards and 1TD on the ground last week and I firmly believe that fantasy owners can expect at least that out of Brown alone in Week 1. "

I then went on to write this Player Spotlight on Brown, but hopefully you have already read that and you kept Brown (or traded for him) entering Week 2. If you did, nice work. Now get ready for another monster game against that Chargers rushing defense in Week 3. San Diego has surrendered over 100 yards rushing in each of the first two weeks. Brown looked amazing commanding that Wildcat offense and he took 13 snaps in the formation. That’s right, 13! And that’s just Wildcat touches! For more on Ronnie Brown, read his newest Player Spotlight here. I talk enough about him all over the Site, so on to other players!

Did You know?

Through two weeks, Panthers WR Steve Smith leads the league in targets with 28.
Steelers WR Santonio Holmes is second with 25 and my boy Randy Moss is third with 24. Andre Johnson is fourth with 23. We warned fantasy worlds all off-season long that Holmes was ready to breakout after failing to do so last season. He matured a year later than expected, as we projected him to explode last year… regardless, he is dropping points with the best of them this season. As for Randy Moss (and Tom Brady), buy-low. I don’t care if both bust again this week, the duo will take off and owning both on the same fantasy team will lead to many fantasy championships in 2009. Buy-low if for whatever reason someone is ready to jump ship! This is my number one redraft tip of the week!

Surprise Start Of The Week

Start Knowshon Moreno against the Raiders (20th) rushing defense. Moreno had 75 yards on 17 carries in Week 2. He also caught two passes for 22 in that match-up against the Browns. He is about ready to explode at some point and this could be the week he drops some serious fantasy points. Moreno will shine eventually, even if it isn’t this week against the Raiders. Once Moreno takes over and gets all the touches, he will get in a groove during games and that’s when he is at his best. He is a special runner and will prove that he has a nose for the end zone. He could become a strong fantasy RB2 by season’s end. Too bold? Let’s talk at Week 16′s end!

Dynasty Corner

I can’t explain how much I believe in what I’m about to say… If you don’t own either, or even if you own one and not the other, go after Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells now before it’s too late. Neither rookie has had that "big" game yet, but those outings are on the way! Now, it is possible that Wells shares carries all year long, and Moreno could be inconsistent from time to time in that Denver offense, but this is the dynasty section right here… Once Wells has 150 yards and 2TDs in one game, it’s all over. Game over. His dynasty value will climb to new and untouchable heights, even if fantasy owners know inconsistency is still to come for the remainder of 2009. Same goes for Moreno. Right now, Wells and Moreno dynasty owners don’t know what to think and they are vulnerable. They may sell-low in order to benefit their 2009 results. Take advantage. Do not say I didn’t warn you.

Bench ‘Em If You Have Alternatives…

You may want to sit your Indy runners this week if you have better options… The Cards rank 4th against the run so far this season, surrendering just 56.5 rushing yards per game on the ground. Not sure if your options are better than either Joseph Addai or Donald Brown? ASK OUR STAFF !!!!!!




Week 3 Start & Bench Advice

Should I start Larry Johnson (@PHI) or Knowshon Moreno (@OAK) ?

tavaner is a contributor of fantasy footballxtreme Knowshon Moreno is the RB I’d go with in this matchup.  After splitting carries with Buckhalter in the first game Moreno cam away with a 2-1 split in carries in the second game.  As he returns to health and Denver takes on a run defense giving up 125 ypg, Moreno is the one who would be in my starting lineup.

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor This one is tougher than it looks.  Larry Johnson has more carries thus far, but has a tougher road matchup than Knowshon Moreno does.  I think both of these guys could end their days with similar numbers, but I am going to stick my neck out and take Larry Johnson.  He will see the rock 20+ times with a few catches sprinkled in, and that should be good enough for 80 yards rushing and a score.

Should I start Kevin Smith (vs. WAS) or Thomas Jones (vs. TEN) ?

tavaner is a contributor of fantasy footballxtreme I’d be looking for alternatives to each RB as they both face tough matchups.  The Titans have given up 36 and 63 rushing yards in the first two games.  While the Jets will challenge that run defense with their 7th ranked rushing attack  I expect the Jets to focus on the pass.  Kevin Smith is the guy I’d start if I had to pick one.  He’ll be a focus in the run and passing game and should get enough touches to produce RB3 numbers.

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor No question for me, I start Kevin Smith. He will get a dozen more touches than Thomas Jones and is the more dynamic player. Jones also faces a defense which has surrendered less than 100 yards on the ground in TWO games. Look for Smith to go over 100 total yards with a score – and look for the Lions to get their first win in 20 games.

Should I start DeSean Jackson (vs. KC) or Braylon Edwards (@BAL) ?

tavaner is a contributor of fantasy footballxtreme DeSean Jackson has gotten 7/9 targets the first two week.  That’s still better than Braylon Edwards is doing in Cleveland, 5/7.  I’d roll with Jackson in this case as he’s getting more targets, including red zone looks, while Edwards has yet to get a red zone look through two games.  His young QB looks good as well.  In spite of those interceptions while trying to come back, Kolb’s performance impressed.

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor DeSean Jackson would be in my lineup regardless of who is playing QB. The matchup against KC is a good one – the Eagles need to rebound after a bad loss to the Saints, and I think they will. The opposite is true for Cleveland – I absolutely hate the matchup @ Baltimore and Brady Quinn will be harassed all day long. This would be a good week to bench Braylon Edwards and look for other options.

Should I start Santonio Holmes (@CIN) or Steve Smith (@DAL) ?

tavaner is a contributor of fantasy footballxtreme A classic win/win situation.  Both are top five in targets for the NFL.  Both have QBs capable of taking advantage of questionable pass defenses.  I’d start either with confidence. Santonio Holmes would get the nod if I had to choose one.

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor Is it me or is that Cincinnati defense looking good right now? Primary wide receivers have been held in check against the Bengals for the most part; Greg Jennings had zero catches against them last week! For that reason, I would sit Santonio Holmes and start Steve Smith – that Dallas defense proved they can be beat deep and that’s Steve Smith’s specialty. If the Giants’ Steve Smith can pull down 10 passes, the “real” Steve Smith certainly can.

Should I start Ben Roethlisberger (@CIN) or Jay Cutler (@SEA) ?

tavaner is a contributor of fantasy footballxtreme They average 39/37 pass attempts per game respectively.  Neither has had the help of a run game yet and both should do well in their matchups this week.  I’d go with Jay Cutler though as he’ll face a banged up Seattle defense and a Seahawk team missing it’s starting QB.  If the Bears D gives Cutler any short fields to work with he could have another multiple TD game.

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor Once again I’ll say I’ve been very impressed with the play of the Bengals defense through two weeks and I expect them to play inspired this week at home against the Steelers. Therefore, I’ll take Jay Cutler – I think this is the week that offense gets going, and I expect him to go over the 250 yard mark with a couple of TDs.

Should I start Chris Wells (vs IND) or Tim Hightower (vs. IND) ?

tavaner is a contributor of fantasy footballxtreme Tim Hightower is the easy call here.  He’ll get a minimum 50% of the carries and a handful of receiving targets, if not more.  The Colt rushing D ranks 30th in the league and with the split of carries and the clear advantage in receptions over Chris Wells (who has yet to be targeted), it’s no question for me.

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor Until Chris Wells gets more than seven carries, Tim Hightower is the guy you should start. Not only is he getting the majority of the carries, but he is also a primary passing target out of the backfield with 15 catches over the first two games. With roughly 20 touches, Hightower should be considered a very good start against a suspect Colts run defense.



2009 Defensive Rankings Against The Run

Here are the defensive ranks against the run through Week 2.

Rk
Team
G
Att/G
Yds
Avg
Yds/G
TD
1
Baltimore Ravens
2
19
82
2.2
41
0
2
Tennessee Titans
2
26
99
1.9
49.5
0
3
San Francisco 49ers
2
20
106
2.7
53
0
4
Arizona Cardinals
2
22.5
113
2.5
56.5
1
5
New Orleans Saints
2
20.5
118
2.9
59
2
6
New York Jets
2
16.5
121
3.7
60.5
0
7
Miami Dolphins
2
19
129
3.4
64.5
1
7
Pittsburgh Steelers
2
21.5
129
3
64.5
0
9
Buffalo Bills
2
21
130
3.1
65
1
10
Denver Broncos
2
24
140
2.9
70
1
11
Cincinnati Bengals
2
19
164
4.3
82
1
12
Chicago Bears
2
22
181
4.1
90.5
2
13
Jacksonville Jaguars
2
29.5
189
3.2
94.5
2
14
New England Patriots
2
25
207
4.1
103.5
0
15
Minnesota Vikings
2
27
218
4
109
0
16
Philadelphia Eagles
2
29.5
219
3.7
109.5
3
17
Washington Redskins
2
26
229
4.4
114.5
0
18
Green Bay Packers
2
32.5
237
3.6
118.5
1
19
Atlanta Falcons
2
23.5
240
5.1
120
1
20
Oakland Raiders
2
30.5
250
4.1
125
2
21
Kansas City Chiefs
2
33
265
4
132.5
3
22
Detroit Lions
2
30
269
4.5
134.5
1
23
Dallas Cowboys
2
28.5
271
4.8
135.5
2
24
San Diego Chargers
2
32
278
4.3
139
3
25
St. Louis Rams
2
33.5
292
4.4
146
1
26
Seattle Seahawks
2
23.5
333
7.1
166.5
2
27
Carolina Panthers
2
34.5
336
4.9
168
2
27
New York Giants
2
25
336
6.7
168
4
27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2
29.5
336
5.7
168
1
30
Indianapolis Colts
2
37.5
353
4.7
176.5
3
31
Cleveland Browns
2
37
411
5.6
205.5
5
32
Houston Texans
2
34
430
6.3
215
4

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3 Comments so far

  1. [...] is never too early for week 3 start and sit advice. Do not sleep on Ronnie Brown this weekend after a huge Monday night game! [Fantasy Football [...]

  2. cnl1975 September 23rd, 2009 9:35 pm

    Miami will be mentally and physically tired after last week. Traveling from coast to cooast on a short week due to Monday night game, I would not expect them to do very well at all.
    Not to mention SanDiego needs to win a game. I would not count too highly on any Dolphin this week

  3. [...] more fantasy football goodness, visit Fantasy Football Librarian’s weekly roundup, Fantasy Football Xtreme, Fantasy Football Goat’s picks, FF Toolbox’s Week 3 starts and sits, The Fifth [...]

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