Here is our Week 4 Fantasy Football Start and Bench Advice for the 2009 Fantasy Football Season. Start ‘EM & Sit ‘Em Advice was meant to be bold, yet calculated. We know that and we understand that. We also understand that fantasy owners aren’t looking for answers to the obvious questions, which is why we have addressed more dilemma-like situations entering Week 4 of the 2009 fantasy football season.
Smitty’s Week 4 Thoughts
Get Ready For The Show!Trade for DeAngelo Williams before it’s too late. His mediocre Week 3 outing will have some fantasy owners worried. Take advantage. I still see the Panthers runner as a top 4-5 fantasy running back moving forward. Bench Of The WeekBench Ryan Grant against that Vikings defense in Week 4. The Vikings are going stop that run and force Aaron Rodgers to pass in this one. I predict that Brett Favre leads his new team to victory over his old team. Greg Jennings and Rodgers should connect all game long, and both are excellent starts in this exciting match-up, but Green Bay won’t be running much, or at least they won’t be running well, and will have a tough time getting a win. They will pass a ton, though! Dynasty CornerI’ve touched on this a lot already through three weeks (and the off-season), but get ready for both Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells to breakout. Moreno is already playing at that decent fantasy RB2-type level. Wells will get there. Trade for both now in dynasty leagues before it’s too late. If they remain healthy, both should be top 12 fantasy running backs of the future and one should be a top 5-10 fantasy back in just his second season. We have talked up Shonn Greene a lot here at FFX, and especially this past off-season, but his time could be near. The Jets struggled to run the ball in Week 3, and even though that New York coaching staff says that they have no plans to mix things up heading into Week 4, it is only a matter of time before Greene gets his shot. The Jets traded up to get him in the 2009 NFL Draft and he was the No. 1 runner on their board entering day one of that ‘09 draft. Assuming he stays relatively healthy, Greene is the future of that rising Jets’ attack. I admit I didn’t give Thomas Jones enough credit heading into Week 1, as the explosion was there in that Week 1 battle, but where was he in Week 3? This was my concern… 31-age rushers just don’t play at an elite level, and if they start off looking elite, they breakdown before mid-season. The odds are against Jones finishing the season as the Jets’ starter. For more on this topic of 30+ rushers, read our 30 Year-Old Running Back article. Look for Greene to shine later on down the road. It could be one week from now, or it could be five weeks from now… his time is near and that offense is exciting and on the rise! We could be looking at the next Matt Forte if everything falls into play and the rookie stays healthy. Start ‘Em If You Need A Running Back Start…Donald Brown – If you are thin at the running back position, or have starting rushers on a bye, consider starting Brown this week. He should get more carries each and every week and he is the kind of player that can get you 70 total yards and a score when you need him… Not sure if you have better alternatives? ASK OUR STAFF !!!!!! |
While Tampa Bay on paper looks like a good matchup for Clinton Portis, so did the Rams in week 2 (88 yds, 0 TDs) and the Lions in week 3 (48 yds, 0 TDs). This is not the Portis we know and love, so it leads me to believe he is either playing hurt or in the early stages of decline. On the opposite end of the spectrum is a suddenly rejuvenated Willis McGahee who already has 190 yards rushing and leads all RBs with 5 TDs – this in spite of splitting carries with Ray Rice. I’ll go against the matchups and take McGahee this week.
Clinton Portis had a tough time last week in Detroit contributing less than 50 yards in a losing effort on barely a dozen touches. Going up against a TB run D, next to last in the NFL, this is the game Portis owners have been waiting for. He won’t get a softer matchup this year. He’s still a risky start. Willis McGahee at NE is a tougher call but just as much of a boom/bust start as Portis. NE gives up less than 90 rushing yards a game, but Baltimore features a balanced offensive attack. A wild card here is now the NE offense handles the Ravens defense – which they’ll now have seen twice in three weeks. McGahee could see some short fields.
Advantage Portis, but not by much.
Brandon Jacobs had gotten off to a slow start until last week’s matchup with the Buccaneers got him back on track with nearly 100 yards and a score. This week the Giants are away to play the Chiefs – another good matchup on paper for the big guy. And while Marshawn Lynch could very well be chomping at the bit his first game back from suspension, I want to see how that backfield will shakeout with Fred Jackson before I commit him to a start. Jacobs is the call here.
It will be tough for Marshawn Lynch owners to keep him out of their lineups this week, but if there is a better option, and Brandon Jacobs is one of those options, I’d start him. Jacobs gets a team giving up almost 120 rushing yards a game, twice that in passing yards. The Giants are into the soft part of their schedule and Jacobs is still numero uno in that rushing offense. Lynch faces a tough run D in Miami, but I expect him to be worked into the offense — three weeks is a long time and he’ll have to get his timing back.
This one is a bit up in the air with Kevin Smith’s shoulder injury still iffy and us not really knowing if he will start yet. That said, if Smith is playing he is in my lineup. For the most part, unless we are talking about sitting him for another stud RB, I don’t sit Smith for anyone. Knowshon Moreno is not a stud by any stretch of the imagination, so he rides my bench this week against Dallas.
Until we know the extent of Kevin Smith’s injury it tough to start him at all.
Knowshon Moreno is the guy I’d start, with modest expectations. He is getting the goal line looks and touches. While he’s being out-produced by Buckhalter at the moment, I feel it’s only a matter of time before he’s a must start RB2. If Smith does play this week it would be more of a gut call. He’ll get the ball enough to be a RB3/flex but will he hold up long enough to get the touches against a tough Chicago D?
Santana Moss is the epitome of boom or bust, one of those guys that can win you a game, like he did for a lot of teams last week, or lose you one with a poor outing. This week the matchup with Tampa is too good to pass up, so I give him the nod over Mario Manningham who still has a lot to prove before I can justify giving him a start in any given week.
This weeks win/win coin flip. They’ll both get enough targets to make them low end WR2s. Both are capable of doubling that total and both could lose looks in games where the run games could be featured in the 4th quarter if not throughout the game. If you start 3 WRs either of them would be good starts.
Here are the defensive ranks against the run through Week 3.
Rk |
Team |
G |
Yds |
Yds/G |
TD |
1 |
Baltimore Ravens |
3 |
153 |
51 |
0 |
2 |
Tennessee Titans |
3 |
182 |
60.7 |
1 |
3 |
Miami Dolphins |
3 |
198 |
66 |
2 |
4 |
San Francisco 49ers |
3 |
200 |
66.7 |
0 |
5 |
New Orleans Saints |
3 |
201 |
67 |
2 |
6 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
3 |
230 |
76.7 |
1 |
7 |
Denver Broncos |
3 |
235 |
78.3 |
1 |
8 |
Arizona Cardinals |
3 |
239 |
79.7 |
1 |
9 |
New York Jets |
3 |
248 |
82.7 |
1 |
10 |
New England Patriots |
3 |
265 |
88.3 |
1 |
11 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
3 |
266 |
88.7 |
2 |
12 |
Minnesota Vikings |
3 |
276 |
92 |
0 |
13 |
Chicago Bears |
3 |
284 |
94.7 |
2 |
14 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
3 |
300 |
100 |
2 |
15 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
3 |
318 |
106 |
3 |
16 |
Detroit Lions |
3 |
334 |
111.3 |
1 |
17 |
Dallas Cowboys |
3 |
344 |
114.7 |
2 |
18 |
Buffalo Bills |
3 |
352 |
117.3 |
4 |
19 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
3 |
358 |
119.3 |
5 |
20 |
New York Giants |
3 |
364 |
121.3 |
4 |
21 |
Indianapolis Colts |
3 |
377 |
125.7 |
3 |
22 |
Washington Redskins |
3 |
383 |
127.7 |
1 |
23 |
Green Bay Packers |
3 |
386 |
128.7 |
1 |
24 |
Atlanta Falcons |
3 |
408 |
136 |
2 |
25 |
Seattle Seahawks |
3 |
418 |
139.3 |
2 |
26 |
San Diego Chargers |
3 |
427 |
142.3 |
4 |
27 |
St. Louis Rams |
3 |
444 |
148 |
3 |
28 |
Oakland Raiders |
3 |
465 |
155 |
3 |
29 |
Carolina Panthers |
3 |
548 |
182.7 |
3 |
30 |
Cleveland Browns |
3 |
553 |
184.3 |
8 |
31 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
3 |
562 |
187.3 |
2 |
32 |
Houston Texans |
3 |
614 |
204.7 |
8 |
Join the forum discussion 
on this post
I’m in a PPR league and I have to choose three from McGahee, Moreno, Rice, Benson and DBrown and I’m sitting McGahee and Moreno.
As far as Rice and McGahee, it just appears that power backs have done very little against NE this year. Turner was largely ineffective, as was Jones the prior week. The best offensive production against NE this year was from Fred Jax in week 1 and he did most of his damage on screen passes. I like Rice in PPR and think Kelley Washington is a sleeper to put up a 5/80 line or thereabouts.
As far as Moreno, I think the Cowboys shutting down the Giants and Panthers running game has to give you pause, particularly in non-ppr. The Cowboys have been scorched this year by downfield passers and given up some big plays on blown coverage, but DEN is not the type of offense to exploit that weakness. I expect the Cowboys will game plan for DEN similarly to what they did with CAR and make Orton beat them, possibly from behind. I would expect to see Moreno catch some passes with an opportunity to make plays in space, but its also possible a big Cowboy lead could effectively take him out of the game.
I agree with Smitty on Brown. The Seahawks run defense has been awful this year (even excluding Gore’s two big runs in wk2) and I can see Brown ad Addai toting the rock 15-18 times each, both going for 75-100 yards and a score.
On another note, I think the Bengals D is worth a play this week.
Always great stuff, ctrencher!
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