2009 Fantasy Football Start and Bench Advice: Week 7

10/21/2009 2:50 am by in Start Bench Advice

Here is our Week 7 Fantasy Football Start and Bench Advice for the 2009 Fantasy Football Season. Start ‘EM & Sit ‘Em Advice was meant to be bold, yet calculated. We know that and we understand that. We also understand that fantasy owners aren’t looking for answers to the obvious questions, which is why we have addressed more dilemma-like situations entering Week 7 of the 2009 fantasy football season.


Smitty’s Week 7 Thoughts

Get Ready For The Show!

In Week 5, I advised fantasy owners to trade for DeAngelo Williams before it was too late. Well, now it is too late, but for those that went after him, nice job! You now have yourself a top five fantasy running back moving forward. Who is the player to trade for Week 7 kicks off? I won’t use Greg Jennings this week, as I used him last week, but I will just say that I think I was just one week early on that one. Go get Greg Jennings before Week 7! Again, Jennings isn’t this week’s "buy-low" player, I just wanted to bring up Jennings once more. My Week 7 breakout player and "buy-low" pick is Matt Forte.

Matt Forte is absolutely my number one "buy-low" candidate heading into Week 7, especially in dynasty formats. His value will never be lower! In our Expert Fantasy Football Dynasty league, we just sent out an offer to FantasySharks.com and it was accepted. We sent Frank Gore and Laurence Maroney to FantasySharks.com and we received Matt Forte in return. Steal. I like Frank Gore, I won’t lie, but his dynasty value is a lot lower than Forte’s value. Forte’s just getting started with his soon-to-be long NFL career, and while he has struggled early on in 2009, DeAngelo Williams just proved how quickly all of us can forget a slow start. Forte is the real deal and nothing has changed talent-wise. Doubt is present given his slow start, but that’s the definition of opportunity right there. Chicago will turn to the run more as things get colder and you can just about bet your bottom fantasy dollar that we’re going to see some monster games out of Forte in the coming weeks (if healthy). If forced to rank my top 6 overall players looking forward in dynasty formats, Forte cracks my top 6… Gore, a gem for 2009 if he is fully ready for action this week, wouldn’t crack my top 12. Go get Forte while his fantasy owners are questioning his future (and know that he has already had his bye, which is a huge added bonus for 2009!). Questioning his future isn’t a wise move in my opinion, he is more than proven — He is just off to a slow start, something that should quickly be taken advantage of. The Bears rusher is averaging just 58 rushing yards per game, but that’s going to change rather quickly. I felt extremely strong about my DeAngelo Williams predictions in Weeks 5 and 6… I feel just as strong about this one.

Dynasty Corner

I tend to beat a dead horse, I know, but that’s my style. When I get a feeling about a player, like my feeling on Ronnie Brown heading into 2009 fantasy drafts, I beat the hell out of the advice. Well, here we go again… Go grab Matt Forte right now in all dynasty leagues for all of the reasons I mentioned above. Stop reading, go make your offer, then come back…

Again, beating a dead horse, I won’t budge from my "Buy Chris Wells now" stance in dynasty leagues. His big game is coming and it might be this week or next week. Once that game comes, good luck trying to acquire Wells via trade — Ever.

Start ‘Em If You Need A Running Back Start…

Last week was Jonathan Stewart, which worked out nicely. This week it’s Chris Wells. He got 12 carries last week (to Tim Hightower’s 13). I could be a week early on this one, as I have been on a couple occasions this season, but his time is near and I think that he is a solid Week 7 start if you’re in need at the position. There is risk, as his carries are not yet a guaranteed thing, but I think it’s worth a shot if you’re in need. Not sure if you have better alternatives? ASK OUR STAFF !!!!!!




Week 5 Start & Bench Advice

Should I start Brian Westbrook (@WAS) or Clinton Portis (vs. PHI) ?

tavaner is a contributor of fantasy footballxtreme This is a win/win situation.  Over the last four weeks, both Brian Westbrook  and Clinton Portis have produced RB2 numbers.  Even though Westbrook missed a game due to injury, he’s averaged 11ppg in standard scoring leagues and ranks as a top ten RB in ppr leagues.  Portis‘ ranking is less affected by ppr, as he has received half the receptions that Westy has gotten over the same time span.  If you are in a ppr league, I’d start Westbrook over Portis.  In a standard scoring league, I’d go with Portis, especially with the change in who is calling the plays.

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor Yes, Clinton Portis is coming off a 15 carry, 109-yard rushing game, but I am not buying into him heading into week 7. Philadelphia was embarrassed last week against Oakland, so I expect that defense to pick up the pace this week and it will be the Redskins, and Portis, who will pay the price. On top of his 91 yards through the air, Brian Westbrook gained another 50 yards rushing on just six carries. Six! Sometimes I just don’t get Andy Reid. Bottom line, yes, LeSean McCoy will still be in the mix, but I wouldn’t give this one a second thought – start Westbrook.

Should I start Rashard Mendenhall (vs. MIN) or Jonathan Stewart (vs. BUF) ?

tavaner is a contributor of fantasy footballxtreme Jonathan Stewart would get the start for me in this situation.  Buffalo just gave up a months worth of production in one game to Thomas Jones, and with Carolina’s strong running game, Stewart should be able to build upon the success he has last week (110/1).  Rashard Mendenhall produced a respectable 77 total yards and a score last week despite Ben Roethlisberger throwing 35 times – again.  Mendenhall will have tough running against a strong Minnesota D, but this game looks to be a battle of arms between Brett Favre and Big Ben.

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor In a news story here on FFX last week, I suggested a “wait and see” approach with Jonathan Stewart. Well, the wait is over and it was pretty plain to see he is healthy again. That is great news for his continued progression as a big-time player, but does that mean he is worth a start over Rashard Mendenhall this week? Probably not. Like it or not, Stewart still plays second fiddle to DeAngelo Williams, a bona fide stud, so regardless of matchups, I am going with Mendy here. He has been very solid over his last three games, and Minnesota has been giving up some healthy chunks of yardage on the ground lately. If Pittsburgh gives him 15-20 carries, I expect over 100 yards and at least one score.

Should I start Matt Schaub (vs. SF) or Brett Favre (@PIT) ?

tavaner is a contributor of fantasy footballxtreme While both are good starts in this situation, I go with Matt Schaub against a surprisingly good 49er defense.  Schaub has thrown 90 times in the last two games and I would not be surprised to see this trend continue against a defense giving up only 88 ypg on the ground.  Brett Favre, as mentioned earlier, is in a position that could require him to win the game through the air, and while that will translate to 30+ passes, as long as Adrian Peterson is healthy (and I do expect him to play), he’ll get his 20 touches a game no matter who the opposition is.  Favre threw 45 times against the 49ers in week 3 and he will prove more of a test than either Derek Anderson or Daunte Culpepper have recently been.

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor Matt Schaub is one of the hottest QBs in the league – he’s gone over 350 yards in each of his last two games and has thrown six touchdowns. This week he gets a home start against the 49ers, a team which gave up 329 yards and a pair of TDs to Matt Ryan in week 5. That’s not to say Brett Favre is not playing well, but he pales in comparison. Schaub and that offense are just too hot to sit right now, so he easily gets the nod here.

Should I start Miles Austin (vs. ATL) or Braylon Edwards (@OAK) ?

tavaner is a contributor of fantasy footballxtreme Ahh, a choice between a riddle and an enigma. I would just as soon leave this one alone.  We’ll start with the riddle; Miles Austin had such an impressive game that Wade Phillips announced he’d be on the field for 50 snaps per game. Only thing is that was one game, against KC, and Atlanta is not KC.  Meanwhile, which team will the enigma, Braylon Edwards, face in Oakland?  The one we saw weeks 3, 4 & 5… or the one that stepped out of the DeLorean last week?  Both guys figure to get 8/9 targets in their respective games and in this one I’ll take the guy with more to prove, Edwards.

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor Since the move to the Jets, Braylon Edwards has put up better-than-Browns numbers, but once again he is again suffering from poor QB play. Mark Sanchez is in an expected rookie funk right now, and should he play I don’t expect him to break out of it against an inspired Raider team that shut down one of the better offenses in the league last week. Couple that with the fact that Edwards will very likely have CB Nnamdi Asomugha on him all game, I am not expecting much production. Miles Austin suddenly finds himself a starter in an explosive offense, and he’ll get some chances to score with Tony Romo tossing the rock. I’m not totally sold on him putting up great numbers this week, but there’s no doubt the upside is with him and that is enough for me to give him the start.

Bonus Question straight from our FFX Forums:

Should I Start Tim Hightower (@ NYG) or Leon Washington (@OAK) in PPR?

xyz is a Fantasy Football Xtreme contributor As dolfan51 points out in his post, Tim Hightower has been very consistent this season – from a fantasy points perspective, he is very likely top 15 in most PPR formats. That’s big, because it is nice to have the confidence to start a player and know he will get you a steady 15 to 20 points. On the other hand, you have a boom or bust guy in Leon Washington, playing against a team that has been a sieve against the run all year. Couple of things push me toward Hightower here. First, I’m a sucker for the sure points, and as much as I think the Giants are probably going to be fired up after the beating they took against New Orleans – it’s all the more reason to play him. Hightower will be a great outlet for Kurt Warner in this game, and may finish with near double-digit catches if the Giants use the blitz to try and rattle the passing game. Second, Thomas Jones is running wild right now, so it is hard to say with confidence that Washington will get his touches. He did against the Bills last week, but he’s also had games with only 8 touches. I play Hightower in this spot, but Leon has some upside for more points – albeit with more risk.



2009 Defensive Rankings Against The Run Entering Week 7

Here are the defensive ranks against the run through Week 6.

#
Team
G
Yds
Yds/G
TD
1
Arizona Cardinals
5
298
59.6
2
2
Pittsburgh Steelers
6
447
74.5
1
3
Miami Dolphins
5
382
76.4
4
4
Denver Broncos
6
478
79.7
2
5
New Orleans Saints
5
417
83.4
4
6
Chicago Bears
5
442
88.4
5
7
San Francisco 49ers
5
443
88.6
4
8
Baltimore Ravens
6
547
91.2
3
9
Minnesota Vikings
6
561
93.5
2
10
Tennessee Titans
6
570
95
5
11
Cincinnati Bengals
6
581
96.8
3
12
Jacksonville Jaguars
6
593
98.8
3
13
Seattle Seahawks
6
596
99.3
5
14
Indianapolis Colts
5
516
103.2
4
15
Philadelphia Eagles
5
519
103.8
3
16
Green Bay Packers
5
527
105.4
2
17
Dallas Cowboys
5
532
106.4
2
18
New York Giants
6
662
110.3
8
19
Detroit Lions
6
674
112.3
5
20
New England Patriots
6
677
112.8
1
21
New York Jets
6
694
115.7
4
22
Washington Redskins 
6
708
118
2
23
Atlanta Falcons
5
591
118.2
3
24
Houston Texans
6
750
125
10
25
Kansas City Chiefs
6
782
130.3
6
26
St. Louis Rams
6
795
132.5
9
27
San Diego Chargers
5
705
141
6
28
Oakland Raiders
6
872
145.3
7
29
Carolina Panthers
5
746
149.2
5
30
Cleveland Browns
6
992
165.3
9
31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
6
1,030
171.7
6
32
Buffalo Bills
6
1,091
181.8
8

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4 Comments so far

  1. [...] Slaton and Tom Brady were buy low candidates last week; This week, it is Matt Forte, who should have a big game this weekend. [Fantasy Football [...]

  2. dag2523 October 22nd, 2009 9:53 pm

    Would love to see a few examples of who you’d send for Forte in redraft… Gore? Mendenhall?

  3. [...] more, check your lineups against FF Toolbox starts and sits, Fantasy Football Xtreme, Fantasy Football Goat, The Fantasy Football Geek Blog, Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate for Week 7 [...]

  4. Smitty October 24th, 2009 4:17 am

    dag: Benson and a WR…. Marshall and a RB. Basically any player that is currently on the rise that may fall back down to earth. Thomas Jones and a WR?

    I traded Gore and Maroney, as mentioned above, and I think that’s a great deal in dynasty/keeper formats. It’s an amazing deal. All it’s going to take is one HUGE game before that looks like a monster steal.

    In redraft leagues, another example, but complete example, would be let’s say Braylon Edwards and Thomas Jones…. or Westbrook and Marshall for Forte and a WR… just buy-low and sell-high… post your trades on the forums or Ask Our Staff!

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