Here is our Week 13 Fantasy Football Start and Bench Advice for the 2009 Fantasy Football Season. Start ‘EM & Sit ‘Em Advice was meant to be bold, yet calculated. We know that and we understand that. We also understand that fantasy owners aren’t looking for answers to the obvious questions, which is why we have addressed more dilemma-like situations entering Week 13 of the 2009 fantasy football season.
Fantasy Football Start & Sit Advice: Smitty’s Week 13 Thoughts
Week 13 Fantasy Football Roundtable Debate:Each week Fantasy Football Xtreme is a part of a fantasy football roundtable debate, where a group of fantasy Sites attack the same question and we interlink the content within each of our Sites. This week’s question for debate is: QUESTION FOR WEEK 13: Who are your top start/sit candidates headed into week 13?The Sites involved include: FantasyFootballXtreme, rotoprofessor.com, JunkyardJake.com, lesterslegends.com, fantasypros911.com, kffl.com, top-fantasy-football.com, footballjabber.com, HattyWaiverWireGuru.com My answers to the question for this week: Smitty’s Start Of The WeekMy start of the week this week is LeSean McCoy at Atlanta. The Falcons are 23rd in the league against the run, but they will be without starting quarterback Matt Ryan (toe) and will most likely be without stud running back Michael Turner. Once the Falcons get out to an early lead, look for McCoy to grind it out between the tackles. I see McCoy having well over 100 rushing yards and at least 1TD in Week 13 against the Falcons. Smitty’s Bench Of The WeekMy top sit of the week is Kevin Smith at Cincy. First off, the Bengals are ranked 3rd in the league against the run this year. I actually feel that Smith is the perfect sell-high candidate in dynasty leagues. I don’t have much faith in him moving forward in 2009 and I don’t see that Lions’ rushing attack being even close to consistent in 2010. His value is relatively high right now, so if you’re in a dynasty league that still allows for trading, act now. If you’re in a redraft league, your trade deadline has most likely passed, so I say bench Smith if you have safer alternatives (like Justin Forsett, Fred Jackson, etc). |
The last time Thomas Jones saw Buffalo in week 6, he put up 227 total yards and a TD on 24 touches. Not too shabby for an old guy, but it’s not like the Bills have been able to stop anyone on the ground – they are dead last and give up over 165 yards per game. Jones has not slowed a bit since that matchup and has been given the rock an average of 24 times in the Jets’ last five games – going over 75 yards rushing in all of them. LeSean McCoy does not have the resume of Jones… yet, but since taking over for Brian Westbrook, he has been more than solid with over 200 total yards and a TD in the Eagles last two games. Both are good starts this week, but I will go with my gut and say McCoy – the Falcons are not great against the run themselves, and the Eagles may decide to emphasize the ground game a bit more with DeSean Jackson looking doubtful to play.
This one really boils down to matchups. Knowshon Moreno gets the Chiefs, who rank near the bottom of the league in run defense, and Kevin Smith lands the Bengals, who are ranked #3. Going with matchups is not always the end all to line-up decisions, but when two guys are real close, using matchups is as good a way as any to make a call. There is some risk that Correll Buckhalter negates any advantage Moreno gets, but I’ll take that chance and give him the start.
The Bills decision to start Fred Jackson last week makes this one a little messy. Will the Bills new coach stick with his gut and ride Jackson the rest of the way, or will Marshawn Lynch work his way back into the rotation and render both guys impotent in fantasy line-ups? Only time will tell, but my gut tells me Lynch is still the better player and will not go quietly. All that said, LaDainian Tomlinson has a matchup that should have his owners licking their chops. Just a few short years ago, LT would have been good for 150 total yards and a few scores against a team like Cleveland – these days, half that is a very good day for the 30 year old. I’ll split the difference and say LT will finish with just under 100 total yards and a score, so I’ll give him the nod here. Jackson could easily match those numbers if given another 20 touches this week against the Jets – but it is hard to bank on that happening.
Even with one of these QBs facing a tough Ravens defense, this is a win/win situation. I’m a big fan of Aaron Rodgers and I feel he’ll have success against this Baltimore secondary. He’s throwing the ball 35+ times a game over the last month and with Baltimore making it tough, but not impossible, for Ryan Grant to run, I expect Rodgers to successfully put it up early and often. Donovan McNabb has the easier matchup, by far. Opposing QBs have torched the Atlanta secondary for multiple TD games during the past three weeks (including Jake Delhomme). McNabb is another guy averaging in the mid 30s for passes-per-game, but with the exception of Sand Diego in week 10, Donovan has produced a steady, but uninspiring, 242 ypg and 1.7 TDs pg. I’d start Rodgers at home, even though McNabb may face a short field a time or two with Matt Ryan out.
This is another win/win situation, but I’d have to go with Ricky Williams who has averaged 112 ypg rushing the football the last three weeks (to go with 3TDs). With 20+ carries per game over the same time span, a rookie QB behind center and a home game, Williams is showing he has a lot left in the tank. Marques Colston is coming off a great Monday night football game, but it was his first game over 100 yards since week 6 and first receiving TD in a month. It’s tough to produce when 7 targets is a high water mark for the last five weeks and he only saw 5 against New England. I’d start Ricky with confidence — New Orleans is too loaded with offensive talent for Colston to shine consistently.
Here are the defensive ranks against the run through Week 12.
Rk |
Team |
G |
Yds |
Yds/G |
TD |
1 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
11 |
824 |
74.9 |
3 |
2 |
Minnesota Vikings |
11 |
898 |
81.6 |
3 |
3 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
11 |
901 |
81.9 |
5 |
4 |
Green Bay Packers |
11 |
980 |
89.1 |
3 |
5 |
San Francisco 49ers |
11 |
1,043 |
94.8 |
9 |
6 |
Baltimore Ravens |
11 |
1,074 |
97.6 |
7 |
7 |
Tennessee Titans |
11 |
1,116 |
101.5 |
9 |
8 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
11 |
1,125 |
102.3 |
8 |
9 |
Dallas Cowboys |
11 |
1,130 |
102.7 |
4 |
10 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
11 |
1,173 |
106.6 |
6 |
11 |
New York Giants |
11 |
1,186 |
107.8 |
15 |
12 |
Miami Dolphins |
11 |
1,188 |
108 |
13 |
13 |
New York Jets |
11 |
1,190 |
108.2 |
8 |
14 |
Arizona Cardinals |
11 |
1,195 |
108.6 |
8 |
15 |
Indianapolis Colts |
11 |
1,198 |
108.9 |
8 |
16 |
New England Patriots |
11 |
1,207 |
109.7 |
3 |
17 |
Denver Broncos |
11 |
1,210 |
110 |
6 |
18 |
Seattle Seahawks |
11 |
1,218 |
110.7 |
9 |
19 |
Detroit Lions |
11 |
1,242 |
112.9 |
9 |
20 |
New Orleans Saints |
11 |
1,279 |
116.3 |
14 |
21 |
San Diego Chargers |
11 |
1,299 |
118.1 |
8 |
22 |
Houston Texans |
11 |
1,320 |
120 |
14 |
23 |
Atlanta Falcons |
11 |
1,334 |
121.3 |
9 |
24 |
Chicago Bears |
11 |
1,382 |
125.6 |
10 |
25 |
Washington Redskins |
11 |
1,407 |
127.9 |
6 |
26 |
Carolina Panthers |
11 |
1,446 |
131.5 |
12 |
27 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
11 |
1,480 |
134.5 |
11 |
28 |
St. Louis Rams |
11 |
1,634 |
148.5 |
16 |
29 |
Cleveland Browns |
11 |
1,759 |
159.9 |
13 |
30 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
11 |
1,764 |
160.4 |
12 |
31 |
Oakland Raiders |
11 |
1,772 |
161.1 |
17 |
32 |
Buffalo Bills |
11 |
1,816 |
165.1 |
16 |
Here are the defensive ranks against the pass through Week 12.
Rk |
Team |
G |
Yds |
Yds/G |
TD |
Int |
1 |
Washington Redskins |
11 |
1,874 |
170.4 |
11 |
7 |
2 |
New York Jets |
11 |
1,933 |
175.7 |
7 |
11 |
3 |
Carolina Panthers |
11 |
1,994 |
181.3 |
12 |
12 |
4 |
New York Giants |
11 |
2,009 |
182.6 |
18 |
9 |
5 |
Denver Broncos |
11 |
2,035 |
185 |
10 |
8 |
6 |
Green Bay Packers |
11 |
2,117 |
192.5 |
21 |
18 |
7 |
Buffalo Bills |
11 |
2,176 |
197.8 |
9 |
21 |
8 |
San Diego Chargers |
11 |
2,196 |
199.6 |
14 |
11 |
9 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
11 |
2,229 |
202.6 |
17 |
18 |
10 |
New England Patriots |
11 |
2,240 |
203.6 |
19 |
13 |
11 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
11 |
2,316 |
210.5 |
24 |
12 |
12 |
Baltimore Ravens |
11 |
2,324 |
211.3 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
11 |
2,348 |
213.5 |
12 |
8 |
14 |
Chicago Bears |
11 |
2,356 |
214.2 |
21 |
10 |
14 |
Houston Texans |
11 |
2,356 |
214.2 |
14 |
10 |
16 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
11 |
2,373 |
215.7 |
12 |
12 |
17 |
Oakland Raiders |
11 |
2,374 |
215.8 |
10 |
7 |
18 |
New Orleans Saints |
11 |
2,393 |
217.5 |
9 |
22 |
19 |
Minnesota Vikings |
11 |
2,441 |
221.9 |
15 |
9 |
20 |
Indianapolis Colts |
11 |
2,456 |
223.3 |
9 |
13 |
21 |
Dallas Cowboys |
11 |
2,474 |
224.9 |
15 |
7 |
22 |
St. Louis Rams |
11 |
2,482 |
225.6 |
15 |
8 |
23 |
Miami Dolphins |
11 |
2,563 |
233 |
13 |
10 |
24 |
Cleveland Browns |
11 |
2,567 |
233.4 |
16 |
6 |
25 |
Seattle Seahawks |
11 |
2,619 |
238.1 |
20 |
10 |
26 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
11 |
2,672 |
242.9 |
19 |
9 |
27 |
Atlanta Falcons |
11 |
2,779 |
252.6 |
18 |
8 |
28 |
San Francisco 49ers |
11 |
2,822 |
256.5 |
11 |
11 |
29 |
Arizona Cardinals |
11 |
2,841 |
258.3 |
16 |
11 |
30 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
11 |
2,842 |
258.4 |
19 |
7 |
31 |
Tennessee Titans |
11 |
2,934 |
266.7 |
25 |
11 |
32 |
Detroit Lions |
11 |
3,095 |
281.4 |
27 |
6 |
Be sure to check out our 2009 Fantasy Football Weekly Player Projections, which are updated daily.
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Also, be sure to utilize our ASK OUR STAFF feature if you have tough decisions to make heading into Week 13 of the 2009 fantasy football season.
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