It’s never too early to crank out a 2010 Fantasy Football Mock Draft. The below fantasy mock draft is based on a standard scoring league (non-PPR) that has line-up requirements of 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 1K and 1DST.
Things change quick in the world of fantasy football, so it will be interesting to see how different things look as we officially hit the 2010 fantasy football off-season. Come August, this mock draft could look rather strange, but that’s the way this game of fantasy football goes. Enjoy the first of many 2010 fantasy football mock drafts.
Also, don’t forget to check out our always updated 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings and Cheat Sheets.
Updated Last: 12/9/09
What can anyone say but "wow" when talking about Chris Johnson’s 2009 fantasy football season? Johnson has been absolutely phenomenal so far this year and he just keeps getting better with every carry. Will it continue in 2010, or will Johnson vanish into mediocrity like so many runners do after elite fantasy seasons? I know most people’s initial reaction to such a question is to laugh, but it happens every year. Matt Forte had a top three fantasy running back season during his rookie year in 2008 and he was drafted as a top 3RB in most every 2009 fantasy football draft… He busted. There is probably no bigger bust at running back this year than Matt Forte. How quickly fantasy owners forget, too. Let’s take a trip down memory lane. Forte’s top 3-4 overall value heading into 2009 drafts will be comparable to CJ’s top 1-2 overall value heading into 2010 drafts… Forte looked that good heading into 2009. Well, the good news for those looking to draft Chris Johnson in 2010 is that Johnson produced excellent numbers in 2008 and is again putting opposing defenses on blast in 2009 (and some)… so he is more proven than Forte was entering 2009… So what is the downside for Chris Johnson in 2010? Well, there is no downside… at least in 2010. This is a yearly league mock draft, so we’re not taking into account anything but 2010 values in this mock, but I will touch on CJ’s dynasty value just because it’s worth talking about… Given his 200-pound frame, and upright running style, Johnson might not have more than 2-3 more dominating years left in this league. He could hang around in this league for more than 2-3 years, sure, but it’s tough for running backs to last more than five or so years in the NFL and 2009 is already Johnson’s second heavy duty season. So does this mean that Johnson isn’t our number one ranked dynasty player heading into 2010? No. He actually still is our number one ranked dynasty player heading into 2010, we just wanted to mention that CJ might not drop elite numbers for 5-7 years like most CJ owners are hoping. Ok, back into a redraft state of mind… Johnson should have no problem racking up 1,800-2,000 total yards and 14+ total scores in 2010. The upside is there for a lot more, but those seem like relatively safe numbers.
You’re not crazy if you still have Adrian Peterson ranked No. 1 heading into next year. He has the ability to rush for 2,000 yards during any given season, and 15-20 scores is always in reach for AP. Peterson’s value could depend a lot on what happens with Brett Favre next year. If Favre stays and plays well, Peterson should have no problem rushing for well over 1,500 yards and should score at least 16-17 times. If Favre stays and struggles, AP could struggle a bit early on in 2010, at least until Sage Rosenfels gets in the line-up and starts producing. Will Favre return in 2010? No one knows the answer to that! Will Favre play well in 2010 if he does return? No one knows the answer to that one either. It’s going to be a wait and see approach when it comes to Favre, but AP owners should know that Rosenfels is a good quarterback and the Vikings should still be airing it out in 2010 even if Favre isn’t under center. All the Favre uncertainty only makes Chris Johnson more appealing at 1.01, though.
Maurice Jones-Drew is a beast and he has proven it so far in 2009 during his first full season as the Jaguars’ starter. Through Week 13, he has already rushed for 1,077 and 13TDs scores. He has also pulled in 42 receptions for 279 yards. A case can be made for MJD going No. 2 overall in 2010 fantasy football drafts. It’s tough to say this, but AP going No. 3 overall isn’t out of the question in 2010.
Through Week 13, Michael Turner is averaging 86.4 rushing yards per game. He is also averaging exactly one touchdown per outing. If Turner wasn’t missing time with an ankle injury this season, he would be on pace for 1,382 and 16TDs. That’s top 3-4 material right there, if not higher. Count on Turner in 2010 — He still has fresh legs and he should have no issues cranking out 1,200-1,300 rushing yards and 14+ scores in ‘10.
Ray Rice was one of our biggest breakout candidates heading into 2009. He showed flashes of brilliance during his 2008 rookie season — We saw the signs and Rice is certainly delivering. Through Week 13, Rice is on pace for 1,166 yards rushing and just over 9 total scores… although, his most impressive work so far in 2009 has been in the passing game, as he has pulled in 64 receptions for 599 yards in just 12 games… that means Rice is on pace for 85 receptions for 798 receiving yards. So, all together the stud Ravens runner is on pace for just over 1,964 rushing/receiving yards, 9 total scores and 85 receptions. Any questions regarding this 1.05 ranking?
Drew Brees is on pace for 4,714 passing yards and just over 38TDs in 2009. Brees is currently winning fantasy football leagues all by himself in 2009. Will he continue to dominate in 2010? Why wouldn’t he? The Saints passing attack is maturing each and every week. If Marques Colston is seeing double teams, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem step up. This Saints passing attack is the most dynamic in the league. The running game might be hit and miss this season from a fantasy perspective, but the team has a tremendous stable of fantasy rushers. Between Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, the Saints rushing attack would deliver if called upon. The thing is, who needs to run when you have that air attack they have in New Orleans? Expect Brees to have a monster 2010 fantasy football season — Expecting 35+ scores isn’t crazy.
Tom Brady didn’t bounce-back from his 2008 ACL injury as quickly as we would have liked in 2009. His first four weeks of the 2009 NFL season were rough on fantasy owners, but he has been on a 36-TD pace since Week 5 and 35-40TDs in 2010 isn’t out of the question. If he finishes the 2009 fantasy football season on fire, Brady could very well go this high in August drafts… if he averages a quiet (but effective) 2TDs per outing moving forward, Brady might just enter 2010 as one of our bigger draft day steals.
Injuries are always a concern, as Frank Gore has a long history of knee injuries. He has stayed on the field relatively well as of late, and if that continues, he will certainly earn 1.08 value.
Larry Fitzgerald is on pace for 110 receptions, 1,292 yards and 13TDs. Those are better numbers than any runner you will find below. This is a non-PPR fantasy football mock draft, but if it was a PPR, you could imagine we’d raise him up a grip of spots. Fitz is our top ranked fantasy football wide receiver in all formats moving forward.
The runners right around this 1.09 seem a bit risky, at least compared to the runners listed above. It’s time to go with a consistent receiver when that happens. That’s the smart way to draft these days. Receivers can win leagues, remember that!
We have a strong feeling that DeAngelo Williams will either be the steal of 2010, or the bust of 2010. If he finishes like the monster runner that he is, he won’t likely fall outside of the top 9-12 overall… if he finishes in just decent fashion, he might slip into the middle of the second-round come August/September. If he slips, that’s where "steal of the draft" comes into play. The presence of Jonathan Stewart is going to continue to make trusting in D-Will a bit tricky, but if you can handcuff the two runners in 2010, just like we recommended in 2009, you should get your first-round production our of your RB1 slot no matter what. On top of that, J-Stew is very flex worthy, if not RB2 worthy most weeks. Owning both Carolina backs is a strong strategy in 2010. Given we’re only 13 weeks into the season, a lot can change, especially with situations like this one… know that.
Same thing said about AJ above applies here. It’s time to go on a wide receiver run to ensure draft value. Reggie Wayne is a lock for 1,200+ and 12 or so scores. Those numbers are too solid to pass up on this late in the first-round.
Ok, we’ve been in Steven Jackson’s corner year after year when so many others have been scared off by injury. Well, believe it or not, we have our concerns about the runner staying healthy in 2010. Yes, he has had a relatively healthy 2009 so far (through Week 13), but he is being abused this year and he has already carried/caught the football A TON so far in his young NFL career. Even if the 2009 season stopped today, Jackson’s NFL carry total would be 1,491 and if you add in receptions, the beast-of-a-runner would be sitting at 1,765 total rushes/receptions. That’s a grip of touches for just six NFL seasons. Too many. Look, no one is arguing that Jackson isn’t having a phenomenal 2009 season this year, as he has reached the 100-yard mark in seven of his 12 outings, but he has reach the end zone just four times in those 12 starts and the Rams offense might not be much better in 2010. This is all bad news for Steven Jackson and he could miss some time in 2010. Will he still produce like a top 10RB per start? We say yes, but injury awaits the runner if you ask us and that’s why he has fallen out of the first-round entering 2010. It’s tough to drop him much further than this, though, but keep all of the above in mind if you own Jackson in dynasty leagues. Again, this fantasy football mock draft is a redraft one, and it’s a non-PPR mock, but I feel it’s necessary to drop some dynasty nuggets when appropriate.
Bust candidate, or steal-of-the-draft candidate? If Jay Cutler doesn’t get any better in the coming weeks, look for us to drop Forte a bit, but only because his ADP will likely drop a bit too. Forte still has the talent. We can totally understand if you want to jump ship, it’s arguable for sure, but we don’t believe that Forte is the next Anthony "A-Train" Thomas. He will rebound.
I know, I know… he is coming off a six-carry game in Week 13 and that came days before we pimped him as our start of the week entering Week 13… We don’t care. The future is bright for this tremendously talented pass-catching running back. We wouldn’t be shocked to see him fall into the third-round come August, or go as high as 12-14. His ADP will depend on his off-season and early pre-season play… and of course his finish to the 2009 fantasy football season will surely alter his future value. If McCoy finishes the year with back-to-back monster games, he will surely enter 2010 with higher expectations than a third-round talent. For now, this feels bold enough to prove our point, but not too high that you stop reading and close the window.
After a rough string of games since his lingering knee injury, Calvin Johnson is back to form. With Matthew Stafford finally looking solid, Calvin could be in for a 1,400-yard, 12-14TD season in 2010. He could be the steal of the second-round come August drafts.
Drafting quarterbacks in even the second-round use to be laughable given how close QBs use to be from year to year. However, now it seems that any team with that top QB wins their league. Manning is as capable as any of the top three (Brees, Manning and Brady) of finishing as fantasy football’s top scorer. Draft him with confidence as your second drafted player if you aren’t comfortable with the available runners or receivers.
Will he drop off in production in 2010? Or, will Randy Moss be the steal of 2010 fantasy football drafts? It’s tough to tell when a receiver will drop off in production, but Moss will only be 33 next season… a handful of receivers have played elite football at that age, Terrell Owens being just one of those guys. In dynasty mock drafts, we could see Moss falling further than this, but not in redraft mocks. The guy could grab 15-18TDs next season… fantasy owners shouldn’t pass on this kind of upside at this point in a draft.
Knowshon Moreno, if healthy, should get all the carries entering his second NFL season. We’re predicting things here, so clearly we will adjust our expectations if things play out differently in 2010. The sky is the limit for this kid, but it’s hard to rank him any higher than this until he gets ALL the carries in Denver. Moreno’s draft value could look VERY different come August if he goes nuts down the stretch in 2009.
Marques Colston is solid. He does come with some injury risk, but with Drew Brees throwing him the football, and if healthy entering August, he should be among the top 5-6WRs taken come draft day.
Rashard Mendenhall has some risk attached to his name, but the upside is there for very strong fantasy RB2-type numbers in 2010. Ten scores is in reach if all goes well for the remainder of the 2009 NFL season. If he gets banged up between now and August, his August ADP could be all over the place. Let someone else take Mendy higher than this — We feel that wide receivers like Calvin Johnson and Reggie Wayne are much safer grabs above this draft slot.
A bit high? Probably, but we’re obviously assuming that he enters 2010 as the unchallenged starter in AZ. If getting 20+ carries, Chris Wells could produce top 10RB numbers.
This feels strange. It was just 4-5 months ago when everyone was writing this runner off. We admit, we did too. He looks good this season, though… he runs with authority and he looks like a starter again. It’s tough to use a second-round pick on Benson, but it might be even tougher to watch someone else make the investment and land it. We wouldn’t take him any higher than this, though. This feels bold enough — For now.
This is a bit high, but his numbers support it. With Philip Rivers airing it out with much success over in San Diego, it’s safe to expect another stellar fantasy season out of Jackson in 2010.
And now on to Rounds 3 & 4…
Rounds three and four could change A TON between now and August, 2010. Players like Mike Sims-Walker could climb the ranks, or drop in the ranks… the same goes for players like Anquan Boldin. Will Boldin be in AZ in 2010? Where will Cedric Benson land in 2010 yearly drafts come August? Do we have him too high in the second-round, or does he belong in this third-round above? Will his 2009 fantasy success carry over into 2010? What about the 2010 rookies? Is C.J. Spiller ranked too low at 3.4, or too high? Is Spiller even the top ranked rookie runner headed into 2010? These are all tough questions to answer when the 2009 fantasy football season isn’t even over yet. Will both Greg Jennings and Roddy White rebound in 2010? Or, will both wide receivers bounce back in Weeks 14-17 and increase their 2010 values before we even hit the off-season? Will LaDainian Tomlinson revive his career for one more season in a different uniform? Are we not giving Kevin Smith enough credit heading into his third NFL season, as we have him slotted at 3.10? With Matthew Stafford maturing, the Lions might actually give Smith some room to run next year.
Will Joseph Addai be starting in Indy come September, or will Donald Brown take over in his second season in the NFL? Addai looks good once again, and we admit it makes it tough ranking him right now. At a glance, I have to say Austin Miles seems a bit high, but it really seems deserving, doesn’t it? He is a top 5WR in most scoring formats through Week 13. Hard to believe? Ronnie Brown’s Lisfranc Fracture could be career altering, so honestly, we just couldn’t slot him inside the top four rounds of this mock draft… That hurts to say, as most of you know I was probably the biggest Ronnie Brown believer heading into 2009… the reality is that the Lisfranc injury is a nasty one and Brown will be 28 entering next year. Twenty-eight isn’t the dreaded age of decline, but it is certainly an age that makes it tough to recover from severe career-threatening injuries and the Lisfranc Fracture is just that. We wish Brown all the luck in the world, but it’s time to observe and react in this game of fantasy football and it’s time to react on Brown (avoid him in 2010). Shonn Greene could be ranked a bit high at 4.08, but his draft value and 2010 ADP will depend solely on the health of Thomas Jones. If Jones finishes strong, and he is still shockingly playing well through week 13, Greene could be quite the steal in 2010 drafts. Could T-Jones deliver again in 2010 at the age of 32? It’s highly unlikely, although we doubted him heading into this season. Still, 32-age rushers are slim to none in terms of playing at an elite fantasy level. Prove us wrong, Jones! We dare you!
It’s entirely possible that players like Sidney Rice, Ronnie Brown, Brett Favre, Thomas Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton, Chad Ochocinco, Braylon Edwards, Donald Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis, Brent Celek, Philip Rivers and others could work their way into the top 40 overall come August 2010. It’s quite early to be sure on any of that, and some might argue that T-Jones still has a year left. Those types of things are very arguable and we welcome that on our fantasy football forums. For now, though, we just don’t envision those players just mentioned cracking the first four rounds in 2010 fantasy football drafts — For now, at least.
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[...] our non-playoff friends (and even those in the playoffs), a look at the first round of 2010 fantasy drafts. Chris Johnson No. 1. [Fantasy Football [...]
Good list – fun to start thinking about next year already. I know that PT has struggled to get consistent carries, but I just can’t see Bush going ahead of him – unless of course they add someone in the offseason. Also don’t see two rookies in 3rd and 4th rd unless they get perfect situations – this year’s crew certainly didn’t warrant their preseason rankings – in redraft. LT – rd round – really?
I’d predict P.Rivers to land in the 4th round ahead of Schaub due to injury concerns from Slaton, A.J. & Schaub. We also shouldn’t rule out the possibility of M.Vick landing with another team like Cleveland which could even push him up in next year’s draft. Probably not a 4th or 5th rounder but fantasy relevant none the less. QB’s like Bradford & Tebow could also make for a deeper QB situation dropping most of the early QB grabs in redrafts next year (other than the obvious 4) IMO. QB’s like Romo,Rivers,Schaub & McNabb are probably going to be absolute steals for those drafting a solid core early, and while the trend on RBBC’s continues it almost seems ideal at the moment to go WR/WR if you miss out on the Jackson’s & Johnson’s during the first round of redraft.
[...] Oh yeah, it’s already time to gear up for the 2010 season. FFXtreme has you covered with their 2010 Fantasy Football Mock Draft. Take a look to see which player is drafted ahead of Adrian [...]
Chris Johnson’s 3TDs in Week 14 just locked himself in that No. 1 spot. If anyone had their doubts before Week 14, now you know. Beast.
Brandon Marshall just jumped up a grip of spots, eh?
is jamaal charles the second coming of chris johnson? watch out, this kid might creep up on us (if he hasn’t already). check his stat line the last four or five weeks
I wouldn’t call him the next Chris Johnson just yet
But he definitely deserves to be in this mock. Much of his recent success and monster play has been after we mocked this draft up, but he will certainly be in our next one and ranked relatively high. Count on it.
smitty, time for you to throw out a few players for 2010! michael turner in 08 and then rice and ronnie brown this year. throw us a bone so we can salivate as we look to explode next year. it’s never to early to make bold calls on rising studs. thanks for all of the advice this year. i finished second in a 12 team league. i’ll take that shiznit!
ctbarbee: You can bet I’ll have the next 1-2 breakout (Rice/Turner-like) players soon enough, but I’m going to hold off and let the season/playoffs play out before I crown the next 1-2 up-and-coming studs. Stay tuned.
sounds good. you have forte way too high in this draft. over moreno and mendy??? forte just doesn’t seem to have explosion and hit the hole hard. i like his receiving skills but his career ypc are low and he has no top end speed to take it to the house. my early breakout predictions for 2010 are beanie wells and jamal charles (if he can stay healthy). shonn green is a sleeper too with that offensive line, especially if they kick thomas jones to the curb.
i also look to see donald brown take over next year for addai. he’s too explosive and while addai is fundamentally sound, he lacks explosion and is injury prone. both addai and forte hit the hole like a wet marshmellow. lol!
I’d like to give Smitty his props. Recommending Ray Rice and Ronnie Brown were superb picks that most other folks were not highly recommending. This type of advice is why I joined FantasyFootballXtreme. The other thing that I like is that Smitty follows his own advice with his own teams in drafting and trading. I really appreciate how passionate Smitty is when he writes about someone like Ronnie Brown, which made me try and grab him in the third rounds as much as I could in all of my leagues. I still haven’t recovered from that loss yet.
Where do you see Sticky Ricky Williams going next year? When he has been the only guy he has played really well.
hey smitty, do you rank gates as the number one tight end going into 2010? i see on the redraft board you have in at 4. and ditto to the guy who gave you props. your bold calls and committment to fantasy are just plain sick! thanks!
electricrelish: Thanks my friend, I’ll toss your comments on the testimonials page! Get ready for a big 2010!
mj10: Ricky is playing well, but Brown won’t just go away. The problem is both will suffer when Brown comes back, because Brown will command carries, but he will need some help carrying a full load of carries, so both will share in 2010. Even if Ricky wasn’t there, MIA would draft someone and I just don’t see how this isn’t a big sharing situation in 2010. Injuries are huge and can change player values quickly. Very quickly.
ctbarbee: Thanks for the props as well. The Rankings are a staff average, fYI, but Gates could EASILY be the top TE next year… but he could just as easily end up at the 4 spot. It’s tough ranking TEs right now. How can you argue against Vernon Davis and Dallas Clark going in the top three? I like Gates, and I think his decreased value heading into next season will only be to your advantage. He will finally be a bargain TE I think..
Also, I will be updating this Mock very soon and Jamaal Charles will be up in that top 20, don’t worry !!!!
You guys have the best site in the fantasy realm, correctly pimping the right players at the right time. So, I’m surprised to see Rodgers that far down. He has played amazingly well and consistently this year. With his rushing yards and TDs, he will continue to outperform Manning. As the Packer D improves, their offense will toy with other teams. But, if you don’t move him up, please move Sims-Walker down. Those guys should never be listed too closley. It’s unnatural. Anyways, you guys rock.
MurphyNichols: A lot will change in the next update, but Sims-Walker is a huge sleeper of ours next year.. a sleeper despite his breakout season. Some doubt him because of his slow finish to the 2009 fantasy season, but we love his future. Rodgers will likely move up in the next update, but it is tough bumping any single one of those players down. The next update to this mock will be fun and very interesting.
Thanks for the props, MurphyNichols.
smitty, as you know, charles got nasty today…is he really the next chris johnson!?!?!!?!?!?
I wouldn’t go so far as to call him the next CJ, but top 15 overall pick, sure. You will see him vault up in the next update to this mock (should be out real soon for you guys!).
Make sure all of you check out the 2.0 version of this mock… as guys like Jamaal Charles clearly saw a change in value after this mock was posted. See where we slotted Jamaal Charles in the 2.0 version here!
[...] Fantasy Football Extreme posted an early 2010 mock draft and they don’t have Brandon Jacobs in the top 40 picks. Apparently they are not sold that he will fully recover in 2010. [...]