Our Fantasy Football Player Spotlights are fantasy write-ups that are dedicated to one specific player at a time. Want to know who is On The Rise and On The Decline? Want to know who to Buy Low and who to Sell High? From Fantasy Football Busts to Fantasy Sleepers, our Player Spotlights will give you that extra advantage during both the fantasy in-season and off-season.
Also be sure to check out our Weekly Fantasy Projections, Start and Bench Advice and Fantasy Football Articles.
If you take a glance at early 2009 fantasy football mock drafts, Terrell Owens is falling into the 3.08 to 4.02 range. That's solid value if you ask me. Owens is 35, so his dynasty value is questionable right now, but some receivers have been able to put together extremely solid fantasy seasons at the age of 35. Galloway was 35 back in 2007 and he managed to pull in 57 passes for 1,014 and 6TDs. To be fair, though, we have to talk about Marvin Harrison, who fell off the face of the earth during his 35-age season. At 34, Harrison pulled in 95 balls for 1,366 yards and 12TDs, but he only grabbed 20 passes for 247 yards and 1TD the following season, which was the season he entered at the age of 35. It's tough to predict how an NFL receiver will respond to age, but I think it's safe to say that Owens is one of the most physically gifted players in the league. He has more natural ability than either Galloway or Harrison. Galloway was blessed with unmatched speed, and Harrison will go down as one of the smartest receivers in recent history, but Owens has so much natural ability it isn't even funny - Even at 35. His age does concern me, don't get me wrong... Owens could miss a handful of games this upcoming season, possibly 3-4, but that's merely speculation on my part, but that's all we can do at this point. If Owen struggles to finish inside the top 12-15 overall for fantasy WRs in 2009, I truly believe it will have nothing to do with decreased ability, though. I honestly believe that only missed games will kill his overall numbers in '09. I project Owens to be a top 12-15 fantasy WR per start. Redraft leaguers should grab Owens around his current ADP, which is again around the 3.08 to 4.02 range - That's insane value!
If you're looking for value at the end of the first-round this upcoming August, Frank Gore is your guy! Gore's current ADP is right around the 1.12 - 2.02 range. Getting a late first-round pick is usually dreaded, but this year those 1.11 and 1.12 draft slots are money! The WR/WR strategy is a solid one this season if you hold a late first-round pick, but now I'm looking at using such back-to-back selections on a Gore/Westbrook combo. For more on Westbrook entering 2009, read my most recent article on Westy under fantasy articles. As for Gore, the guy is only 26 and he is the focal point of that San Fran offense. Gore has been hard at work this off-season and the stud was "noticeably slimmer" at the team's mid-May OTAs. I know many have concerns about his knees, and I once did myself, but Gore has only missed three games during his three starting seasons in the NFL. It's time to start trusting Gore's 26 year-old knees! Need more reasons to like Gore in '09? Well, the 49ers have brought back fullback Moran Norris. Norris was in Detroit last season, but it was Norris that paved the way for Gore back in 2006, the season the stud ran for 1,695 yards, pulled in 61 receptions for 485 yards and scored nine total touchdowns. Gore even had nine 100-yard games that year. Getting Norris back is huge for Gore, especially mentally. Let others doubt Gore this August - Just don't let him fall past you in that 1.11-2.04 range! Gore is actually in my top six overall heading into 2009, so you can imagine how pumped I'm going to be if I start landing the guy with second-round picks!
Smitty just posted a must-read article on how Brian Westbrook is a 2009 must-own. I urge all of you to read it. His perspective makes a lot of sense. He basically touches on how Brian Westbrook is starting to become a bargain grab as we near August and all yearly leaguers should take advantage of his bargain value. As the article states, the key to drafting Westbrook this upcoming season is making sure you handcuff him to rookie LeSeaon McCoy. I couldn't agree more. I have to be honest, I have had my doubts about Westbrook this year, and his knees, feet and ankles concern me, but McCoy really is a great runner and the combo of the two will turn out to be a quality RB1 in '09. With the security that McCoy brings to the table, it's amazing that Westbrook is falling past the 2.04-2.05 area. Westy as your second player taken is money! Westy owners just have to nab McCoy. It is the most important part.
I see a lot of Clinton Portis posts on our forums and I think it's time to address the runner's value heading into 2009. Here is my advice when it comes to Porits in dynasty formats: Trade him! Why? His downfall is on the horizon. Could he crank out one more 14-15 game season? Sure, it's possible, but when a smaller-type runner has carried the football over 2,000 times and he is still being treated like a top 15-18 overall pick in dynasty formats, it's time to consider a trade-in. We have talked about "Lateral Trading" before here on FFX and that might be the best route to take if you currently own Portis in a dynasty league. Not familiar with our "Lateral Trading" advice? No problem. Here it is in a nutshell: Take a lateral step (trade one player for another) into a quietly similar talent, but you want to trade into a player that has more youth or upside... possibly players that have a bit of risk or questions... basically target extremely undervalued players. Need an example? How about trading Portis for a Marshawn Lynch or even a Darren McFadden? Now, the most important part about this trade technique is targeting guys that are quietly as good - Remember that. If you don't view Lynch as a possible equal, or McFadden for that matter, target different players! You want the player to have hidden value, possibly so much hidden value that they are a quiet equal, if not a better long-term investment, than the player your giving up. You're essentially buying low and selling high. In the Portis for Lynch example, you're taking advantage of the fact that Lynch is scheduled to miss the first three games of the '09 season - The missed time is the hidden aspect of the trade that is really masking the fact that you're getting the better dynasty player in the deal. Fantasy owners hate suspensions - Use info like that! The thing that's great in the Portis for McFadden example is that McFadden is ranked so much lower than Portis in dynasty formats (even though I think McFadden is going to surprise in '09), one might even be able to upgrade at another position in the swap... let's say you have Anthony Gonzalez... try upgrading him into aBraylon Edwards. Get the point? Shaun Alexander's final elite season was at the age of 28 and he fell off the face of the earth when he entered that 29-age season. Given Portis' 2,000 career carries, and given that he will be 28 when the '09 season begins, Portis' 28-age season (this season) could be his last elite season (like Alexander's 28-age season) - And that's if Portis can even stay healthy this upcoming year). Sell Portis, but sell smartly like suggested above!
If you have a roster spot to burn in one of your deep dynasty leagues, consider scooping up Texans rookie running back Arian Foster. Foster is no sure thing, as he is currently battling for a roster spot, but I honestly think that he will soon grab that back-up running back job over in Houston. From there, all he needs is opportunity. Don't get me wrong, I realize how good Steve Slaton was last season as a rookie, and you won't hear me say that Slaton doesn't have serious talent, but I am a bit skeptical about his long-term value. I know this isn't what Slaton owners want to hear, and many will strongly disagree with me on the topic of Slaton, but sophomore slumps happen all the time and often times struggling sophomores never reemerge. Looking for examples? How about Cadillac Williams and Anthony "A-Train" Thomas. Both were top 15 overall fantasy picks heading into their sophomore campaigns and both failed fantasy owners in a major way. Now, not every running back runs into a sophomore slump, but I don't think Slaton has the frame (5-9/200) of a full-time rusher in this league. Could Slaton have a long career if his carries were limited? Sure, but it doesn't sound like Houston is interested in limiting his workload - I predict this will lead to injury. Will Arian Foster benefit? Maybe, but all I know for certain is that Foster has enough upside to keep an eye - Slaton owners should strongly consider picking him up, at least until the back-up running back battle is over in Houston.
With Browns running back Jerome Harrison making waves in OTAs, now might be the right time to try and workout a trade for rookie running back James Davis. His value has dropped recently due to the recent Harrison hype, and while Harrison is a relatively talented runner, I still firmly believe that Davis is the most talented back on that Browns roster. If you haven't had your 2009 rookie draft yet, this is even better news, as Davis could slip into the late second-round or even the early third-round. That's bargain value right there! I can't guarantee that Davis will get the opportunity that he needs in order to succeed at the next level, but the talent is present with this running back and that's all we can go on at this point. There are two extremely talented dark horse running backs in this 2009 rookie class and Davis is one of them -- Bernard Scott is the other.
Is it a good idea to trade Andre Johnson in dynasty leagues? I say yes, but only if the price is right. Johnson's value will never be higher and if you can make a lateral step into another stud-like receiver like Anquan Boldin, you might be able to request an upgrade at another position (in the same deal). I talk about lateral trading a lot on FFX and A.J. is the perfect player to use if you want to use this trading technique. The idea is you take an overvalued player that you currently own and downgrade him into a player you quietly see as almost an equal. Essentially, it's selling high and buying low. It's not that I don't see A.J. as a possible top 2-3 fantasy wide receiver this season, but a player like Boldin could play just as well as A.J. during any given season -- Both are that good. So, to get Boldin and be able to ask for another upgrade at another position, you could be setting yourself up quite nicely heading into 2009. An example would be Andre Johnson and the 1.09 for Anquan Boldin and the 1.03. Using another player upgrade instead of a draft pick, you might get away with a trade like: Andre Johnson and Jay Cutler for Braylon Edwards and Peyton Manning. The point is to target players you quietly like almost as much as the player on your roster that you believe you can sell-high. Then sift through all of the relevant rosters and come up with a two-for-two that gets you a major upgrade at another position. Now go build a dynasty!
One player to monitor this off-season is Bills WR Steven Johnson. He probably isn't a player that you'd draft in upcoming yearly drafts, but he is a guy to keep an eye on in larger dynasty leagues. The second-year player has been impressive thus far in camp, and according to a BuffaloNews.com report, he has received high praise from his quarterback. "If you guys could watch some of this tape of the past couple practices of him getting off of the press, it's ridiculous," quarterback Trent Edwards said. "It's making some of the best corners on our team [look bad], getting right by them. He's shifty, he moves well, he comes out of his breaks well and I'm happy he's one of our receivers." Don't release quality talent to scoop this youngster up, but like I said, keep an eye on him in larger dynasty leagues and grab him if he continues to impress in the coming months.
If you're looking for a huge deep sleeper entering 2009, Bengals rookie RB Bernard Scott is your man! Scott has HUGE upside entering this upcoming fantasy season, but he comes with a bag full of risk. The good news is that he can be grabbed in the second-round in 2009 fantasy football rookie drafts, and you can draft him after Cedric Benson in 2009 redraft leagues (for now). The stud college rusher ran for 2,165 yards and 39 touchdowns in college last year and had 1,892 yards and 27 touchdowns during his junior season. The guy is a big-time player and can throw down MONSTER performances at any given time. He had 292 yards rushing and 7TDs in Abilene Christian's '08 Division II playoff win over West Texas A&M. If that doesn't impress you, I don't know what will? So, you might be asking yourself, where is the risk? Five arrests in four years! The good news is that all five of Scott's arrests have been either expunged or dismissed. Will he stay out of trouble? Clearly we don't know the answer to that, but the sky is the limit if this kid can leave all of that in the rear view. My advice is to grab Scott in all redraft and dynasty leagues. He may be somewhat of risk, but again, he won't cost you more than a middle-round pick in 2009 redraft leagues and you can likely get Scott in the second-round in 2009 fantasy football rookie drafts. Some may even question you if you grab Scott as high as an early second, but I'll be honest... I think Scott is worth grabbing in the late-first in 2009 rookie drafts!
We were invited to participate in an early 2009 Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft - That draft is currently in the second-round and you can follow the draft live as it happens by reading our most recent fantasy article. We will be updating it frequently. So, where did Frank Gore go in this draft? Surprisingly, he fell to 2.06! If Gore's value continues to drop as we head toward August, you're going to see me trading down in a lot of upcoming expert drafts. I'm not going to trade into the 2.06 and expect Gore to last to that slot again, but if this undervaluing continues in the coming weeks and months, I might strongly consider trading down any pick I get in that 2-7 range so that I may land Gore, a player I consider to be a top 5-7 overall player in 2009, at bargain value. It's all about draft value and Gore is starting to look like one of the bigger early-round steal candidates for the 2009 fantasy football season. Also keep in mind that the runner is only 26, so trading for Gore in all dynasty leagues and formats is strongly advised! He might be a bigger steal in dynasty formats than redraft formats.
We have been receiving a handful of emails today on Raiders WR Chaz Schilens. Everyone wants to see him moved up on our fantasy rankings -- Don't worry, he jumped up a ton on the rankings as of this afternoon. The 6-4 beast-of-a-receiver has been running with the first-team and was reportedly the best and most impressive receiver at mandatory minicamp. He is quickly becoming a lot of people's favorite dark horse receiver this off-season. As I said, he is 6-4 and runs a 4.4 forty. He also has a 43-inch vertical and that could be a big reason why the Raiders passed on Michael Crabtree in April's draft (at least that's what some reports suggest). His ability to go up and aggressively get a jump ball could really help him hang onto that starting job that he apparently already has. Don't expect too much, especially with JaMarcus Russell under center in Oakland, but don't overlook this kid either. He is definitely worth owning in deep dynasty leagues and FFX Spotlight worthy!
Sammie Stroughter reportedly has everyone buzzing in Tampa Bay. The 5-9, 189-pound rookie receiver has been lining up with the first-team as of late. He is being called a "natural hand-catcher" and he is picking things up quick over in Tampa Bay. We have already grabbed Stroughter in both of our dynasty expert leagues and we recommend that all of you Xtremers grab him as well in larger dynasty leagues (if he is even available). Don't drop a proven producer for the unproven rookie, but we have a good feeling about this kid and his path to the starting line-up isn't all that long.
I've been talking about Earl Bennett for quite some time now and it's time start trading for the guy while his value is extremely low. If he is available on waivers in your dynasty league, consider yourself very lucky and scoop him up. Most of us won't be that lucky, though, as he isn't likely to be available in most medium-to-large size dynasty leagues. For those that do not see him on waivers, start trying to quietly trade for the receiver. Someone is going to have to step up in Chicago at receiver, as Jay Cutler is going to make one of those Bears wide receivers a star... Will it be Devin Hester? Johnny Knox? How about Juaquin Iglesias? I'd be lying if I said I knew for sure that both Bennett and Knox will shine, but those are the two I believe in. Knox has tremendous speed and Bennett is the possession receiver. Will Cutler turn two Bears WRs into a Brandon Marshall and a Eddie Royal? Probably not, but one should shine -- Cutler knows how to speed along the careers of young WRs!
Reggie Bush claims to be about 75 percent healed from his December microfracture procedure and he is expected to be very limited when organized training activities begin on Tuesday. Bush has missed 10 games during the past two seasons due to repeated issues with that oft-injured left knee of his. However, Bush does expect to be a "full-go" during training camp, but don't be surprised if Bush kicks things off slowly in early 2009. Microfracture can often be a tough thing to bounce-back from, but if Bush doesn't push it, he should be fine come mid-season. A healthy Bush is exactly what Pierre Thomas owners should be hoping for. The two runners play completely different roles in that Saints offense and both are going to be far more dangerous when on the field at the same time. A healthy Reggie will give Thomas the kind of success that Deuce McAllister (1,057/198/10TDs) had during Bush's rookie season, when Bush had 88 receptions (2006).
The Seahawks have just signed rookie RB Devin Moore. We were extremely high on Moore earlier this off-season -- The only reason he dropped on our fantasy big board was because other teams weren't taking notice. Well, quietly Moore has found himself in a solid fantasy situation, as only Julius Jones and Justin Forsett (another guy to keep an eye on in the deepest of leagues) stand in his way. My advice, again in the deepest of dynasty leagues, is to consider scooping up both Moore and Forsett. Only do this if you have spots to burn, but my guess is that one of those two will be starting for the Seahawks by season's end. If you only have room to stash one of these guys on your bench, I'd say Moore has the most upside to eventually start in Seattle.
Looking for a big-time sleeper tight end in dynasty leagues? Or, are you looking for a guy to grab late in your upcoming redraft leagues? Consider investing in Eagles TE Brent Celek. Word out of Philly is that Celek is the unquestioned starter entering '09. The guy had a decent year in 2008 (27/318/1), but he didn't get the keys to the starting line-up until late in the '08 season. He did his real damage during the playoffs, where he grabbed 19 balls for 151 yards and three touchdowns. Ten of those catches, 83 of those yards and two of those touchdowns came in the NFC title game alone. If you're in a dynasty league, make sure this kid isn't a free agent. If you're planning on buying low at the tight end position come August, keep Celek on your radar.
Many are wondering if Santonio Holmes is capable of top 10-15 wide receiver numbers in '09. I say that he is. Having those kind of expectations does come with some risk, but Holmes had a great 2007 (52/942/8) and looked much like that same receiver during the playoffs in '08. Given Holmes' 18.1 yards-per-catch average in 2007, a 1,200-yard season isn't out of the question if he can pull in 70-80 balls. Not possible in Pittsburgh? Think again. In 2007, Roethlisberger was a top 5-6 fantasy QB in most scoring formats, posting 3,158 yards passing with 34 total touchdowns, while ranking 16th in attempts. That's quite impressive. And while some are getting the feeling that a monster season is out of the question for a Pittsburgh receiver, keep in mind that Hines Ward has average 84.5 receptions per season over his last eight seasons. Given that Ward is 33, this could be Holmes' time to shine and the best part is that he may only cost you fantasy WR3-type value in '09.
Witherspoon owners should rejoice at the prospect of this LB returning to his natural position at WLB where his skills and talents can be maximized. I'd try to acquire Witherspoon before less attentive owners realize that this shift should translate into 80+ solo tackles, 100 total tackles with a handful of forced fumbles, sacks and passes defensed. There will be more than enough plays to go around for both Witherspoon and Laurinaitis to be considered LB2s this year.
He is my pick for the impact rookie linebacker for 2009 and the first one I'd select, after Curry! With the recent release of Pisa Tinoisamoa in St Louis, Laurinaitis is set to start at MLB and rack up a ton of tackles for a defense that should be on the field quite a bit each Sunday. Laurinaitis is a blue collar type of LB that will be around the ball, giving him an opportunity to approach 100 tackles with 80+ solos a conservative guess. He worth an early second round pick in rookie only drafts and begins the year as a legit LB2 with potential for more.
Looking for a deep rookie sleeper at the wide receiver position? Well, Johnny Knox might just be your guy. Knox has great hands and posted a 4.34 forty at the 2009 NFL Combine. In just two years at ACU, Knox pulled in 121 receptions for 2,227 yards and 30TDs - That's an impressive two-year resume. The Bears also drafted rookie receiver Juaquin Iglesias this year, and both Earl Bennett and Devin Hester still have a lot of upside, but we really like Knox given his current value. We actually just landed him in the 7th-round in our 2009 Expert Fantasy Football Rookie Draft. That's almost no risk and all reward right there! Jay Cutler knows how to speed along a rookie's learning process, as he proved with Eddie Royal in Denver last season. Don't be surprised if Knox matures fast and the Bears utilize his tremendous hands and speed right out of the gate in '09.
It seems that many fantasy owners are forgetting how "on-the-rise" Santonio Holmes is in this league. Yea, there is some risk with Holmes, as he busted in 2008 (821/5) after looking so promising in 2007 (942/8). Despite taking a step backwards last season, Holmes was able to step it up during the 2008 NFL Playoffs. Holmes was Super Bowl XLIII MVP, pulling in nine passes for 131 yards and a touchdown. Some say that Holmes put together one of the most dominant fourth-quarter drives by a wide receiver in Super Bowl history. If you don't remember, Pittsburgh was down by three with less than three minutes left on the clock.. on the drive, Holmes pulled in 73 yards on four catches, including that intense six-yard sideline touchdown grab behind three defenders. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie put some solid pressure on Holmes during Super Bowl XLIII, yet Holmes was able to shine. For some reason Holmes can be had as a fantasy WR3 in 2009, but he can EASILY hand you fantasy WR2 numbers!
Shonn Greene was my dark horse entering this '09 draft and I'm really liking his future value with the Jets. First off, what a draft for the Jets! Greene has first-round talent in my opinion, so to be able to move up and grab Mark Sanchez and then land Shonn Greene in the third-round -- Wow is all I can say. As for Greene, I quietly have him ranked as my third-best fantasy rookie running back. Now, I have Joseph Addai in one of my dynasty leagues and I'd be tempted to take Donald Brown over Greene in that league if I had the 1.03 or 1.04 pick, but that is the only situation where I can see myself not ranking and taking Greene as the third rookie rusher. Thomas Jones will start 2009, but Greene is the future and that Sanchez-Greene duo is going to turn heads in the near future.
The Jaguars just selected Liberty RB Rashad Jennings with the 250th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. This is a great move for the Jaguars, but this could hurt MJD in terms of goal line touches. MJD owners shouldn't be worried at all, though, as the "Human Bowling Ball" is going to get his in 2009. The selection of Virginia OT Eugene Monroe No. 8 overall is huge for MJD entering this season. He could be a top 1-2 overall player in PPR formats and at least top 3-5 in non-PPR formats. I love MJD this year and Jennings is only going to keep the little guy fresh and healthy. Jennings is a must-have handcuff, though!
As we enter day two of the 2009 NFL Draft, Iowa RB Shonn Greene still does not have a home. I really like this kid. I can't predict where he will go in today's second day of the 2009 NFL Draft, but the former Iowa rusher is by far the number one player left on my draft board. In 2008 at Iowa, Greene scored 20 touchdowns, rushed for 1,850 yards and hit the 100-yard mark in every single 2008 game he played. Every single game! That's 13 straight games, which includes his Outback Bowl performance. Greene also scored in every single game but one and scored 14 of his 20 touchdowns in his final six outings. Greene is the kind of running back that could shock fantasy worlds much like Chris Johnson did in his rookie season. Monitor where he lands today - You might see him go to the Bengals or the Browns and then you will be squeezing him into your top five overall for 2009 rookies.
Chris Wells probably landed in the most ideal spot so far for rookie runners. Coach Whisenhunt comes from that Pittsburgh Steelers attack and wants to get back to that between-the-tackles running -- Wells is a perfect fit! I still like Knowshon Moreno as my number one overall rookie in this 2009 class, but I like both Moreno and Wells a ton and believe that both can be top 5-10 fantasy running backs of the future. Both Moreno and Wells could rush for 1,000 yards in their first seasons. Both are in great long-term situations!
Joseph Addai owners, and I am one of them, are currently pulling out their hair, as the Colts just selected RB Donald Brown with the 27th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. While this definitely isn't what Addai owners wanted, DeAngelo Williams survived the drafting of Jonathan Stewart thus far. I like Brown, I think he is a good running back, but Joseph Addai can still put up second-round fantasy numbers in 2009 and beyond (and will now be a big-time bargain for redraft leaguers this upcoming season). Brown still has a lot to prove and the Colts aren't going to just shove Addai aside. That said, Addai owners better see about getting that 1.04 pick in their 2009 rookie drafts - Handcuffing would be a great move regardless of how much we still like Addai.
As you probably already know, the Denver Broncos have selected Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno with the No. 12 overall selection in the 2009 NFL Draft. My initial reaction was shock, but only because the Broncos have addressed the running back position all off-season. Why now throw even more money at the position? That said, all of those Denver running backs, aside from maybe Ryan Torain, are merely mediocre talents, and Torain can't seem to stay healthy. Knownshon Moreno is in a solid long-term situation and I firmly stand by my predictions that state this kid is the next top 5 overall fantasy talent. It could take a season for him to get to that level, but he is a future fantasy stud in the making!
With Tony Gonzalez now in Atlanta, Dwayne Bowe could see more targets than ever. Bowe was top five in targets for receivers last season and you can bet that Todd Haley is going utilize Bowe every chance he gets. With Matt Cassel now under center in Kansas City, Bowe's dynasty future looks bright, especially in PPR formats. Cassel may or may not be the answer, and certainly this trade hurts him from a fantasy perspective, but I like Bowe in Kansas City! Tyler Thigpen is a good quarterback and having both of those quarterbacks on that K.C. roster provides great fantasy security for Bowe owners. Don't be surprised if Bowe kicks off the season in the top 5-10 for fantasy receivers. Even though I believe Kansas City will surprise some people in 2009, just like I predicted with Atlanta last year, that Chiefs defense is going to get scored on and that equals a lot of third- and fourth-quarter passing for that Chiefs offensive attack. Bowe is in for a big 2009!
The word on the wire is that Browns WR Braylon Edwards will soon be in a Giants uniform. Well, there are conflicting reports, but two sources suggest that the Browns and Giants are expected to get a deal done before the 2009 NFL Draft later this month. This move will really help Edwards' stats. The Browns are falling apart. With Edwards, they might move the ball on occasion and Edwards could still manage top 10-15WR numbers in 2009... But in New York, Edwards might just get back to that top 5-10WR form we witnessed over a year ago. Make no mistake, even with the drops, Edwards is an elite fantasy talent and capable of being a top 5WR during any given season. He just needs the targets and a situation where he can grab touchdowns. A Giants uniform will get him those touchdown opportunities! We will let you know if the deal goes down - As we said, there are conflicting reports on this!
Looking for a very deep sleeper at the wide receiver position? Well, consider grabbing Seahawks WR Ben Obomanu. Obomanu reportedly ran with the first-team on Tuesday as the Seahawks opened minicamp. He isn't a flashy grab, as Obomanu has almost no experience. He missed the entire 2008 season due to a broken clavicle, and he caught just 12 passes in 2007, but he is a player to monitor if you're in the deepest of leagues. With Nate Burleson battling back from a torn ACL, the opportunity is there for Obomanu in 2009. Now he just has to stay healthy.
Reggie Bush is one of my favorite buy-low dynasty players right now, especially in PPR formats. Bush recently stated that he expects his role in the Saints' offensive attack to increase this upcoming NFL season. There is some speculation that New Orleans will draft a running back in the upcoming 2009 NFL Draft, but my gut tells me that they will not. Pierre Thomas should be the main man between the tackles in '09, but Bush will be the versatile player that he once was back in 2006, when Deuce McAllister was the between the tackles guy. Bush is at his best when defenses cannot focus on him, and with Thomas in the backfield in 2009, defenses will have their hands full. Keep an eye on Bush's knee issues in the coming months, as he had microfracture surgery this off-season. That is the only concern I have when it comes to Bush this upcoming season. If healthy, he is low-end RB1. In non-PPR formats, I predict that he ends up being a sneaky RB2 at season's end.
Jay Cutler is obviously the most talked about fantasy player right now on our Fantasy Football Forums. Everyone is asking how this trade will affect everyone involved, from Cutler himself down to Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall and even Greg Olsen. It's tough to speculate how solid Cutler is going to be in 2009, because so much can, and probably will, happen in the coming weeks and months. The Bears could sign a wide receiver like Torry Holt, or they could draft a solid rookie receiver like Hakeem Nicks or Jeremy Maclin - Holt could help keep Cutler inside the top 8-10 for fantasy QBs in 2009 and a stud rookie could do the same for Cutler in 2010. My quick and initial advice on the matter is to not sell-low. You just can't. Culter won't be a top 5 fantasy QB in 2009, but Cutler owners just have to ride the wave right now.
Now that Jay Cutler is a Chicago Bear, Brandon Marshall fantasy owners have to be worried about the receiver moving forward. Kyle Orton might be a better quarterback than most think, as the options and offensive attack in Chicago were limited, but this Cutler trade CAN'T be a good thing for Marshall owners. While I'm concerned, and definitely convinced that Marshall won't be quite as good without Cutler under center in Denver, I think Marshall still has top 10 dynasty wide receiver value. Marshall is an elite talent and could still pull in 5-6 catches per game in '09 and grab at least 9-12 scores, but because of his looming suspension and recent hip surgery, Marshall is definitely a buy-low and sell-high candidate right now. If you can get him cheap do it - If you can sell him for a Braylon Edwards and some, as Smitty suggests in his lateral trading examples, do it!
I can't figure out why so many fantasy owners are giving up on Chad Ocho Cinco. Granted, the guy comes with a lot of risk in 2009, but his ADP is right around the 56-60 range overall. That's a steal. Chad is only 31, and with T.J. Houshmandzadeh now in Seattle, No. 85 could be in for a huge bounce-back season. Fact: Houshmandzadeh is older than Chad Ocho Cinco, as Housh turns 32 later this year and Chad just turned 31. Don't get me wrong, I don't advise anyone to draft Chad earlier than his 5th- to 6th-round ADP, but my advice is to take a chance on Ocho Cinco this season if the price is right. Carson Palmer is reportedly 100 percent healthy and Chad should have a chip on his shoulder to start the year. If you think Chad isn't capable of having a 200-yard/3TD game on any given Sunday, you're forgetting how talented the receiver is and you're thinking Chad is older than he is!
Ronnie Brown is one of the most underrated fantasy running backs entering 2009. Brown suffered a torn ACL right in the middle of the 2007 season, but he showed flashes of brilliance last season, which was his first season back from injury. Typically runners struggle that first season back from ACL surgery, but Brown didn't. He didn't crank out top 5-10 running back numbers last season, but he did score 10 touchdowns on just 214 carries and was the focal point of that impressive wildcat offense. The Dolphins did a great job last season given their offensive limitations, and I only see things getting better for Miami in 2009. The word on the wire is that Miami won't have much of a RBBC (running back by committee) in 2009. I truly believe that Brown can be a top 10-13 fantasy back in 2009 -- And the best part is that he will only cost you a third-round pick!
In the right environment, Chris Wells could turn into a future top 5-10 fantasy running back. Some call this 2009 rookie running back class weak, but I say it's extremely strong. In fact, I believe that both Knowshon Moreno and Wells have a great shot at being top 12 overall fantasy talents by 2010. Bold? Absolutely, but these two studs are loaded with talent... if healthy, only a bad landing spot could ruin their 2009+ fantasy potential. Even though Moreno is currently my No. 1 ranked rookie rusher, I have Wells ranked right behind him. These two are so close and so talented, either one could be a top 8RB in their rookie season. Wells, who stands at 6-1 and weighs 235 pounds, was reportedly clocked as low as 4.34 and as high as 4.42 in the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. That's ridiculously fast for his size. Wells is locked into my top 2 overall heading into early 2009 fantasy football rookie drafts.
Angelo Crowell was on IR last year after undergoing a procedure for chondromalacia (runner's knee), which is strange, as the original timetable had him out for 4-6 weeks. Regardless, from 2005-2007 he has produced 125, 95 and 140 total tackles over those years. He has played both SLB and WLB, and with the Buccaneers needing both, I'd be very surprised if he isn't in their starting line-up to begin the season. From a fantasy perspective, start off by treating him as a LB3 with the upside for more.
Good-bye DL stud, hello LB sleeper. Yes, he played LB in college -- 8 years ago. Yes, his main responsibility is to rush the passer, but if I'm an OC, the left side of that Packers defense is going to see so many different screens, slot receivers, players in movement and gimmicks.. that the learning curve will last well into November. If you have to grab him do it as a LB3, but be sure it's a late, late pick. It's tough to be optimistic about his fantasy value as the learning curve could be steep.
When recently asked what the identity of the Rams would be in 2009, St. Louis executive vice president Billy Devaney talked about how the Rams offense is built around RB Steven Jackson. “There isn’t any secret — our best player on the team is Steven Jackson,” Devaney said. “We’re going to build our offense around Steven Jackson. There isn’t any secret about that. … First and foremost, we’re going to try to run the ball and try to establish ourselves as a strong running team.” The Rams should be much improved in the offensive line and blocking departments this upcoming season, as the organization made former Browns center, Jason Brown, the league’s highest-paid center in the league. St. Louis also signed FB Mike Karney to block in front of Jackson in 2009. Both are great signings. In our eyes, Jackson is a top 3-5 fantasy running back in all leagues and formats entering 2009 -- even PPR formats! Especially PPR formats!
Want a deep sleeper wide receiver for the 2009 season and beyond? Pick-up Josh Morgan! As we just posted on our breaking news, the 49ers reportedly expect the kid to be a "top flight" receiver in this league. Morgan is no lock to be an elite fantasy talent, but he is absolutely worth rostering. He shouldn't be available in any dynasty or keeper leagues, but it appears that many fantasy owners still haven't received the memo on this one... If Morgan is available, grab him immediately! He might shine as early as this upcoming fantasy season, as the third-year breakout year is starting to become the second-year breakout year. Expect to hear a lot more about Morgan in the coming weeks and months.
Don't overlook Darren McFadden in 2009. A combination of injuries and lack of carries last season should make him quite the bargain come August drafts. Where do you grab the second-year running back this upcoming fantasy season? Well, don't grab him until at least the middle of the fourth-round or the beginning of the fifth. Why? Because you don't have to. McFadden's current ADP is in the fifth- to sixth-round range, which will be a bargain in hindsight if you ask me. In 2008, McFadden only had five games with more than 9 carries, and he only had one 100-yard performance. Given the fact that his shoulder is reportedly 100%, and because he did average 4.4 yards-per-carry last season when he did carry the football, I think McFadden is going to be a very nice surprise given his projected 2009 draft value. Invest!
Eighteen. No, that's not Terrell Owens' new jersey number, that's the number of teams not interested in signing the stud. The list, so far, includes: Cowboys, Giants, Redskins, Ravens, 49ers, Vikings, Falcons, Browns, Chargers, Eagles, Jets, Titans, Rams, Saints, Texans, Jaguars, Dolphins, Raiders, Buccaneers. That list should grow a little more at the very least, but keep in mind that a couple of teams could reconsider... like the Vikings. I expected a few teams to stay clear of Owens, but this is getting ridiculous. Owens has at least one more top 10-12 wide receiver season left in the tank and someone is going to step up and take a chance. The team that ends up taking a chance on Owens, assuming the team has a solid passer, will likely look brilliant at season's end. I know Owens is 35, but very few NFL players have ever had his work ethic... he is a beast and I think that this parade of rejection is going to be painful to reflect back on for some NFL GMs come September.
After pleading guilty to misdemeanor illegal possession of a firearm on Thursday, Marshawn Lynch will receive no jail time. “Today I pled guilty to a misdemeanor violation of having a firearm in a vehicle,” Lynch said in a statement reportedly emailed to Pro Football Talk. “I am embarrassed by my recent arrest and conviction. I deeply regret that I placed myself in this situation." So what does this mean for fantasy owners in 2009? Well, the running back’s case will be reviewed by the league under the Personal Conduct Policy, and given Lynch's involvement in that hit-and-run accident last season, I wouldn't be shocked at all if he got slapped with a four game suspension. I have a feeling that Commissioner Goodell might step it up in the punishment department this year. He has actually been somewhat lenient as of late if you ask me, but I really believe all that is about to change, at least with those repeating mistakes. I'm guessing here, but I say four games!
If you haven't heard, the recent disorderly conduct charge filed against Broncos WR Brandon Marshall has been dropped and the case was dismissed. Marshall's attorney has stated that Marshall should have never been charged in the first place - There is a chance that Marshall escapes without a suspension, but we still think the league will come down on him in some way shape or form. While some will celebrate after this, I still say that this guy cannot be trusted from a fantasy perspective. If you own Marshall, use this recent news to your advantage and sell-high. I know many Marshall owners are going to suggest that reacting to this most recent charge, which was dropped, is a bad move, but I just don't trust Marshall for the long-term. I'm not the only one, as rumors are circling around Denver right now suggesting that his long-term value is now clouded in the eyes of that Broncos organization. Stay tuned, as Marshall could still face a suspension just for the recent arrest alone.
Derrick Ward is now in Tampa Bay, which means that the door is about to open for Ahmad Bradshaw. I have been extremely high on Bradshaw, and honestly I think he is far more gifted than Ward. I know that statement will anger some Ward fans, but Bradshaw is a beast in all areas! Given that Brandon Jacobs is 6-4, 264 pounds, there is a good chance that Bradshaw is going to start some games in 2009. Even if Jacobs remains relatively healthy all season long, which is possible of the team limits his carries a bit, Bradshaw can still be a force for fantasy owners! The Giants organization is reportedly "eager" to see what Bradshaw can do in that "Wind" role of the Earth-Wind-Fire combo... I think No. 44 will shine! If you own Bradshaw in dynasty leagues, don't sell because he doesn't have a ton of trade value right now. If you don't own him, see if you can acquire him now before it's too late. I can't promise the opportunity will for sure be there, but the talent is. Bradshaw is the real deal!
Brandon Marshall was arrested again! According to an ESPN report, the receiver was booked in an Atlanta City jail on Sunday on a disorderly conduct charge. What does this mean for his future fantasy value? It's way too early to know for certain, but my initial guess is that Marshall is going to miss a handful of games in 2009. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell can suspend Marshall even without a conviction, and given that Marshall reportedly promised to stay out of trouble after last year's legal issues, you can bet that good old Roger Goodell is going to make an example out of the Broncos receiver. This is Marshall's fourth arrest since March of 2006. Fourth! For some reason there are a lot of Marshall believers even right now after this breaking news, so I say shop the guy before it's too late. Eddie Royal's stock just went up, but I still have my concerns about Denver in general heading into 2009. First Cutler is shopped and now he is pissed - Now this! Denver is in trouble!
If you haven't heard, Kellen Winslow was traded to the Bucs today. Is the tight end worth more in Tampa Bay? My initial guess is no way. I don't know that the move lowers Winslow's value all that much, but it sure doesn't raise his value that's for sure. If I'm a top tier tight end, I like the combination of Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson over Luke McCown and... um, who is the back-up in Tampa right now? Oh, yea, Brian Griese! Jeff Garcia is gone and McCown appears to be the 2009 starter. Not good. McCown could impress, but we highly doubt he ends up being a better option than either Quinn or Anderson. If you're trying to figure out where to slot Winslow this season, I say anything higher than 5-7 is too high. If Tampa does something drastic at the quarterback position, clearly I'd change my stance here.
It was learned early this morning that soon-to-be rookie WR Michael Crabtree has a stress fracture in his foot. Initial reports suggested that Crabtree was going to immediately have the same surgery that 2008 rookie RB Jonathan Stewart had. He will now wait until after his Texas Pro Day (March 26) to have the surgery. "I don't know where that report came from," Crabtree said. "It [stress fracture] has been there for about a year and it's never caused me any pain. I can play with it the rest of my life. It won't stop me from running. I'm going to run." I still stand by my "don't freak out" stance. Crabtree is still the our No. 1 ranked rookie receiver heading into the 2009 NFL Draft, and unless he suffers a setback, or a report surfaces suggesting that his fracture won't heal properly, he is on his way to being a stud at the NFL level. Get on or get off the wagon!
If you haven't heard, WR Michael Crabtree has a slight stress fracture in his left foot and his foot will require surgery. The incoming rookie is expected to be sidelined for at least 10 weeks, which means he will likely cancel his NFL pro day. If all goes well, and we do believe he will have the surgery, doctors reportedly feel that he can be ready for training camp. Fantasy owners shouldn't freak out and drop Crabtree on their rookie rankings. Jonathan Stewart was in this same situation last year and had the same type of surgery, yet Stewart went No. 13 overall to the Panthers. Crabtree should be everyone's No. 1 ranked rookie WR heading into 2009. He has Calvin Johnson upside and his lack of speed should not concern anyone. Think Larry Fitzgerald. When you can go up and get a ball that no one else can get, you do not need blazing speed. Crabtree is fast enough!
We have taken a lot of heat so far this off-season because of our extremely high ranking of incoming rookie running back Knowshon Moreno. Our staff average rankings have the back ranked No. 8 overall on our 2009 Dynasty Rankings. Yea, I said overall! Bold? Yea, well that's how we roll! Our only concern with Moreno has been his college playing weight of 207 pounds - Well, Moreno clearly hit the weights this off-season, as the stud weighed in at 217 pounds today at the combine. At 5-11, 217 pounds, Moreno has an ideal NFL RB frame. In 2008, the Georgia running back produced three 3TD-performances, rushed for over 100 yards seven times and scored in every single regular season game but two. With the added weight, Moreno is now inside my personal top 5-10 overall in dynasty formats. Crazy? I've been called worse. This kid is for real!
With the combine finally getting underway, a guy I am keeping an eye on is Florida wide receiver Percy Harvin. He is certainly not getting the press Michael Crabtree is, but I think he could be the best of this bunch when it is all said and done. He is only average size at 5’11” and 195 lbs, but this kid has blazing 4.35 speed and has a knack for finding the endzone – looking over his rushing and receiving stats you’ll find he scored a TD once every 9 touches! That makes him a threat to score any time he touches the ball and he should have an immediate impact in the NFL. It still remains to be seen which team drafts him, but if he can hook up with an established offense that already has a true #1 WR (the Texans for instance), his career could take off quickly (think Eddie Royal). If you are a dynasty player, Harvin is someone who could very well be available at the tail end of round one and that would be a major steal.
After reading Smitty's Spotlight on Knowshon Moreno, I decided to get to work on my Shonn Greene Player Spotlight. Smitty then beat me to it, but what he said was exactly right. This 2009 RB draft class is phenomenal. I even think it's better than last year's draft class. I know some may call that crazy, but we have seen rookie RBs rise and fall fast in this league. A-Train for example. I'm not saying that Matt Forte is going to fail, I actually like him the most from last year's draft class, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Steve Slaton fall from the elite. He is talented, but he doesn't have the frame to run between the tackles for the long-term. Chris Wells and Shonn Greene are built to grind it out. Greene is my No. 1 ranked rookie and Wells and Moreno are closely behind. This class will surprise and 2-3 of these rookie RBs will be top 10RBs of the future! Fact: Shonn Greene rushed for 100+ in every college game last season.
We currently have Knowshon Moreno ranked as our No. 1 rookie running back coming out of this 2009 NFL Draft class. Does that mean that Moreno is a lock to be our No. 1 ranked rookie rusher come September? The answer is absolutely NO! This draft class is so good, landing spots can determine everything. For now, predictions and guessing have to do and Moreno currently has a kung-fu grip on the top spot. Moreno is so talented, we truly believe that with 10 added pounds, top 5-10RB production is possible by 2010. That being said, don't think for a second that Chris Wells and Shonn Greene can't be top 10RBs of the future either. The odds are against all three being NFL studs, we know that, but Greene is serious talent and and reminds us a lot of Ronnie Brown (before ACL tear). Greene rushed for 1,850 yards and 20TDs last season. Stud!
According to reports, the Chiefs have offered Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley the team's head coaching job and Haley has accepted. This is great news for Dwayne Bowe and that Chiefs passing game. Haley's play calling and aggressive passing attack are a big reason why the Cardinals shocked the world last season. Bowe already had top 10WR upside written all over him, but the addition of Haley could make Bowe one of the biggest WR steals in 2009 fantasy football drafts. His current ADP is right around the 5th- to 6th-round range, so use that information to your advantage (and monitor it as it changes), but expect Bowe to shine during this upcoming fantasy football season.
It's official -- The New England Patriots have placed their 2009 franchise tag on quarterback Matt Cassel. What does this mean? Well, no one knows quite yet, but two scenarios will likely play out. The organization will either trade Matt Cassel, 26, or they will keep him as insurance to Tom Brady (ACL). If they do keep Cassel, New England will be committing roughly $30 million to just Brady and Cassel alone in 2009. That's a lot of money for two quarterbacks. The franchise tag for quarterbacks in 2009 is $14.65 million. It's tough to guess which scenario is most likely to go down, as conflicting reports are surfacing on Brady's rehabilitation. Things should be more clear as we head toward March - Until then, fantasy owners just have to wait and see. As for ranking Cassel in 2009, we'd suggest you slot him right around the 10-12 range. The upside is there for more, but until he has a new home, he may only be guaranteed to start a handful of games, if that, in 2009. Stay tuned.
There are some great discussions going on right now in our forums about the top players at each position for the upcoming season. I’m here to tell you that Andre Johnson has assumed the role of the #1 fantasy WR in the game in all formats. He had his skeptics after a 2007 season that saw him miss seven games due to injury, but came back strong this past season and posted career highs in receptions (115), yards (1,575) and touchdowns (8). Even with the injury in 2007, it was obvious Johnson was on pace for tremendous output – 107/1500/12. There are very few guys in the league with his combination of size, speed, agility and toughness - and he comes baggage-free! The Texans are an emerging force in the league and have an established QB in Matt Schaub, complimentary receiver in Kevin Walter, and new-found RB stud in Steve Slaton. All of this bodes well for the 27-year-old stud and I expect more of the same for years to come.
Breaking News indicates that Saints RB Reggie Bush had microfracture surgery on his left knee after he was placed on injured reserve in mid-December. The recovery timetable for microfracture surgery is tough to predict, as the procedure affects players in different ways and not every microfracture sugery is the same. The team expects Bush back in time for June minicamps, but it's tough to say how healthy he will be even if on the field come June. Bush has had issues with his left knee for over two years now, and he missed the final four games of the 2007 season with a torn PCL... the team might be ready to give Thomas 20+ carries per game. Even if Bush was healthy right now, Thomas is already the between-the-tackles runner now in New Orleans... that is no news flash... but Bush entering 2009 banged up is going to make Pierre Thomas extremely valuable heading into August drafts. Is he second-round material? We will dig into this in the coming months.
DeAngelo Williams is our number one ranked fantasy running back for the 2009 fantasy football playoffs. If the Eagles win their Wild Card match-up this weekend, the Panthers will face the winner of the Cardinals-Falcons contest. If Minnesota beats the Eagles this weekend, the Panthers will then face that mean Vikings defense, but I still see Carolina advancing no matter who they play in their first contest (Divisional match-up). But, honestly, I don't see the No. 3 Vikings beating the No. 6 Eagles, which means that I expect DeAngelo to have a solid first-round match-up... either way, rough match-up or not, Williams could possibly play three games this playoff season and that makes him the No. 1 fantasy back this playoff season. The real question isn't, Is Williams the No. 1 fantasy back during the NFL Playoffs... the real question is, Where do fantasy owners slot this guy for 2009?
During the Bucs Week 17 outing against the Raiders, Cadillac Williams reportedly suffered another torn patellar tendon, but this time he injured his left knee. When Caddy suffered this same injury (but right knee) last season, many feared that the injury would be career-threatening. Given that Caddy suffered the injury in Week 4 of 2007, and didn't play until Week 12 of this season, he is most likely going to miss all of 2009... if not a lot longer. This situation opens the door once again for Earnest Graham. Graham, who was placed on injured reserve in November due to an ankle injury, has been medically cleared to walk without crutches and he is expected to begin rehab soon. In fact, the runner should be ready for OTAs and training camp. If Caddy would have finished out the season healthy, Graham wouldn't be an extremely attractive fantasy option heading into 2009, but things change quickly in this league! Make sure Graham hasn't been dropped in your dynasty league(s)!
As Zach just wrote in the spotlight below, where does DeAngelo Williams get drafted in 2009? It really is a tough question to answer right now. If you have been living under a rock due to a early 2008 fantasy collapse, DeAngelo Williams just finished as the No. 1 fantasy running back in 2008. The stud runner just threw down Tomlinson-type (of old) numbers on 16 games, rushing the football 249 times for 1,340 yards and 20 total touchdowns. Twenty! Let me repeat myself... Twenty! How can one not consider this guy a first-round pick next year? But, as Zach and a few of us have already said, the key in 2009 is to BE SURE you reach big-time for Jonathan Stewart. The combo is a lock - That Carolina rushing attack should be gold once again next season and the two backs together is extremely secure! More on this topic to come!
With Reggie Bush out for the season, Pierre Thomas is sure to get all the touches in Week 16 against that awful Lions rushing defense (32nd). What a match-up! Thomas was already a top 5-7RB start this week against the league's worst rushing defense, a unit that gives up 168.7 rushing yards and 1.85 RU TDs per contest... but Bush officially being listed as out is music to the ears of Thomas owners. This week, fantasy owners can comfortably expect 100-120 rushing yards and at least one touchdown. Everyone knows Thomas will be a beast this week, but what does the future hold for this guy? Is the runner a legit RB2 entering 2009? If so, that makes him a second-round pick? I like Thomas, I talked the guy up before he was even the back-up runner in New Orleans, but I'm not ready to draft him as my second selected player come August, 2009. For now, I call him a great flex prospect in 2009 and beyond. He is just too high-risk as anyone's No. 2 overall player -- For now.
I've been reading a lot of threads on our Fantasy Football Forums and I have to say, I'm a bit shocked that so many are considering benching Michael Turner this week at home against Tampa Bay. Granted, the Bucs have only surrendered five rushing touchdowns (tied for 2nd) on the season, but they give up over 111 rushing yards per game, which ranks 19th in the entire league. This is an excellent match-up for Turner this week and he is a must-start. Fantasy owners shouldn't even be considering benching "The Burner," who ranks inside the top three for fantasy backs in almost all scoring formats. Again, I feel like I shouldn't have to write this up heading into Week 15, but I have seen numerous threads where some fantasy owners are even considering starting Dominic Rhodes, or D. Ward, over Turner. Not good logic. "What have you done for me lately, Turner?" Try six 100-yard games in 14 starts, four multiple-touchdown performances, one 200-yard outing and one 4TD-contest. NEVER BENCH TURNER!
Is Jonathan Stewart a solid flex-option entering Weeks 15 and 16? I say yes. The Panthers go up against one of the league's worst rushing defenses in Week 15 (Broncos), so both DeAngelo Williams and Stewart should continue their outstanding play heading into this upcoming week. Week 16 might be a different story, as the Panthers face the Giants, but Brian Westbrook just proved in Week 14 that match-ups do not mean all that much when all is said and done. That Panthers rushing attack looks amazing and that line is blocking at an insane level. Williams is a borderline RB1 in the final two fantasy weeks, and is actually a great RB2... Stewart is a good flex for sure. Use him!
Can Maurice Jones-Drew be counted on in Weeks 14-16? The answer is yes... and no. MJD has an extremely tough match-up in Week 14 against the Bears, so definitely use another option if that option is strong... but I will tell you what is going to happen... many fantasy owners are going to be extremely disappointed in MJD after his Week 14 performance against Chicago, and then their knee-jerk reaction will be to sit the little guy in Weeks 15 and 16. That is going to be a mistake, in most cases, as MJD faces the Packers (27th against the run) in Week 15 and the Colts (25th against the run) in Week 16. If you make it through Week 14, with or without MJD in your line-up, have a little faith in the "Human Bowling Ball" in the final two weeks of the 2008 fantasy football season!
Redraft: If you own Reggie Bush, don't be afraid to play him in Weeks 14-16. If you are starting running backs like Marshawn Lynch and Marion Barber, obviously leave Bush on the bench (unless you roll with a flex)... but Bush needs to get the nod over runners like Maurice Jones-Drew, Jamal Lewis, Ryan Grant, the Ravens RBs, and the Seattle RBs... he might even be a better option than Tim Hightower and a few other borderline RB2s, especially in Week 14 against the Falcons. Dynasty: Dynasty league owners need to attack this guy via trade before his value rebounds. Many will doubt Bush in 2009, even if he does finish strong in Weeks 14-16... but if you want Bush at a major discount, now is the time to strike! I personally see Bush being a top 12-14RB in 2009, but we're talking non-PPR. In PPR formats, Bush might just be a top 5-7RB next season. Now is the time - Bush is the guy!
With Plaxico Burress out indefinitely after shooting himself in the leg on Friday night, Domenik Hixon is now a very solid WR3 moving forward. It's tough to say how long Burress will be out of action, but my guess is that shooting yourself in the leg will set you back a few weeks. In all seriousness, and it's tough to keep a straight face as I write this, Hixon could really step up and help fantasy teams down the stretch. While I say Hixon instantly becomes a very good WR3 for Weeks 13-16, he has the upside to play even better than that. Now go make sure this guy isn't a free agent in your league!
If you're in a dynasty league and you have no playoff hopes, now is not the time to withdrawal from fantasy football. In fact, you should be more involved than ever. Winning dynasty leaguers win because they make the right waiver moves and right trades. Sell-high right now and buy-low... there is no better way to set-up your 2009 and beyond. Probably the number one player on our buy-low list is Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has now dropped out of the top 10-12 in most scoring formats and fantasy owners can probably trade for him at that value (if not lower). Take full advantage because Lynch has top 5-8 overall upside in 2009 and beyond. Now is the time to strike and guys like Thomas Jones and Terrell Owens are running out of time -- Don't miss out because you are getting a case of the withdrawals.
News just broke on Brady Quinn and his broken finger -- And the news is not good. Quinn is done for the season, as the break has gotten worse and he is apparently damaging tendons by playing through the injury. If you're desperate at the quarterback position heading into your fantasy playoffs, go grab Derek Anderson ASAP. Even if you need a solid back-up, Anderson is your guy. We really like DA and he could still get shipped elsewhere in 2009 (if he finishes out the season strong), so all you dynasty owners out there better think about picking him up and stashing him on your bench. Don't get me wrong, he is no lock to start in this league in 2009, but I think that he will respond well now that the pressure is off - Plus, if opportunity knocks, Cleveland might entertain the idea of getting rid of Anderson, and his salary, this off-season.
Lance Moore exploded in Week 12 against the Packers, pulling in 5 passes for 115 yards and 2TDs. Moore has scored five touchdowns in the last four games and has had at least 90 yards in five out of his last eight contests. It's starting to look like Moore is going to have outstanding dynasty value. If you're in a dynasty league, entertain offers for sure, as his value is extremely high, but be sure to run the trade offers by our FFX Forum community! Until then, keep starting Moore as your WR3 without hesitation.
Brandon Jacobs is expected to be inactive for Week 12 against the Cardinals, which means that Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw will handle all of the rushing duties in the afternoon game. An early morning report came out today suggesting that Jacobs would be active today, but all that changed less than an hour ago, so hopefully all you Jacobs owners have time to make a swap. Jacobs was one of our top "sell-high" candidates last week, and this is one reason why. He is a beast, no question, but he has been banged up and his schedule is relatively tough moving forward. Most trade deadlines have passed, so if you got him you have to sit tight... Don't be too upset if Jacobs is on your roster, he is capable of scoring two touchdowns on any given Sunday, just make sure, if you're in a smaller size league, you grab Bradshaw if for any reason he is available. Many fantasy owners might only be concerned with Ward, who is technically the starter in today's game, but Bradshaw has the most upside.
Remember what Bronco’s receiver Eddie Royal did to the Raiders the last time they met in week one? Let me remind you: 9 catches, 146 yards and a touchdown. Royal is at the top of my list of wide receivers this week because I expect more of the same in this second meeting – especially considering Raider’s all-pro CB Nnamdi Asomugha will be busy covering Brandon Marshall for most of this game. And it’s not just Oakland either, Royal has ripped lots of teams this season. He has 5+ catches in six of the nine games he has played in and leads all rookie wideouts with 56 total grabs. Get Royal in your lineup this week.
With the recent news of Ernest Graham out for the year, Warrick Dunn is a great play this week at Detroit. Having given up an incredible 250 yards to Carolina’s tandem of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams last week, the Lions are one of the league’s worst run stoppers. As a matter of fact, there are not many running backs that have faced the Lions and not put up huge days. And don’t be worried Cadillac Williams will steal the show – if he does get carries, it will only be to spell Dunn as the word on the street is that he is not ready for a full load just yet and may even be inactive for this week’s game. Dunn is almost assured of over 100 total yards and a score, but don’t be surprised if he has an even better day.
Rookie Jet tight end Dustin Keller has been on fire lately, catching 14 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown over the last two games. That should come as no surprise if you are someone who follows target data from week to week as Keller has more than doubled both Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery combined in total looks. It’s obvious Keller has the trust of Favre at this point and has become an outlet for him when those corners are bearing down on his top two wide receivers – and it doesn’t hurt that Favre now has a firm grasp of this offense after 11 weeks. This week’s matchup with Tennessee might scare some out of playing Keller, but I think this is a perfect game for Keller to rack up some points for your team.
Hopefully all you Willie Parker owners took our advice last week and traded for Mewelde Moore. Parker was coming off a solid 115-yard effort against the Chargers and Moore owners were likely ready to close the book on the Mewelde Moore project. He was cheap - Now he won't be. If you own Moore and do not own FWP, consider selling him high to the FWP owner, but only if you're bettering your line-up in some way shape or form. Past that, Moore-only owners should really wait and see how this situation plays out. If you were under a Thursday night rock last night and don't know what I'm referring to, Parker was injured on Thursday night in his Week 12 match-up against the Bengals. We will keep you posted on FWP's status, as it's too early to know how injured Willie is, and what is exactly wrong with him... keep checking our breaking news throughout the day.
With Chad Ocho Cinco deactivated for tonight's Thursday night game against the Steelers, the team will have to insert WR Chris Henry into the starting line-up. This is clearly not a good match-up for Henry, but he is a decent WR3 this week if you need a wide receiver. He is being dropped in a lot of leagues right now, so check your free agent player pool and add him if you need the WR help.
That Browns coaching staff has said numerous times this season that they would like to get Harrison more involved in the running game. It has taken a while, but Harrison finally some some solid action... and he certainly delivered. On just 3 carries, Harrison rumbled for 80 yards and a score. The score was a 72-yard scamper and he looked very quick on the run. Don't expect too much out of Harrison at this point, but he absolutely deserves to be owned in larger leagues. He will be one of the first players to fly off waivers this week in most leagues, so go get in line!
Marshawn Lynch and Joseph Addai were our top two "acquire now" players heading into Week 11. After rushing 23 times for 119 yards and catching 10 passes for 58 yards and a touchdown, Lynch is going to be extremely hard to acquire heading into Week 12. Offers will start coming in, but because Lynch is a top 5-8RB moving forward, plan on hitting that "reject" button a lot this week. Don't accept an offer unless it's an offer you can't refuse. What does one of those look like? Get on our FFX Forums and talk it out!
Our top buy-low candidate for Week 12+ has to be LaDainian Tomlinson. The Chargers stud ran for just 57 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries in Week 11 against the Steelers. Tomlinson faces the Colts in Week 12, and his schedule is extremely solid in Weeks 13-16 (Falcons, Raiders, Chiefs and Bucs). If you need two straight wins heading into your fantasy playoffs, count on L.T. from here on out and get him on your roster! Tomlinson will never be cheaper than he is right now -- You won't be able to buy-low after this upcoming Colts match-up!
If you're in desperate need at the running back position today, don't be afraid to use Peyton Hillis! I just answered a post on our FFX Forums where a user asked if he should start Jonathan Stewart, Antonio Pittman and Hillis -- I told him that I liked Pittman the most, because I think he is good for 20 or so carries this weekend, but Hillis is a solid flex play as well in this Week 11. Hillis faces the Falcons rushing defense today, which ranks 21st against the run. Atlanta also ranks 21st against the pass and if you remember, Hillis had 7 receptions for 116 yards and 1TD in Week 9. Shanny likes the 6-1, 240 pound runner, so feel relatively confident in playing the Broncos runner today if you're in need.
Make sure Antonio Pittman isn't available in your league. It's not like the guy is going to save your fantasy season or anything, but with Steven Jackson missing the team's San Francisco flight, in order to see a specialist about his injured thigh, Pittman could be valuable to some as a flex-type option. Jackson could be back next week, I'm not saying he doesn't have a shot at returning in Week 12, but this situation just doesn't appear to be a good one for Jackson. If all else, you might be able to trade Pittman to the Jackson owner in your league. This could land you a small wide receiver upgrade or something - Just check your free agent player pool.
With Tony Romo back from his finger injury, Marion Barber is about to rejoin the fantasy elite. Not only is Romo returning to the line-up, he is returning to the line-up with an additional top 12WR talent. Roy Williams is a gifted receiver and I truly believe that he has the abilities of any WR inside the top 10. Romo is going to explode in Weeks 11-16, which is ultimately great for Barber owners. Teams will not be able to focus on Barber any longer and the runner will see a grip more touchdown opportunities now that the offense will be back to being one of the league's most explosive. Trade for Barber now before this week's contest - He has top 5-8 overall upside, yet he can be had for a lot less (for now).
As I stated in my spotlight last week, there is no way the Chiefs would continue to sit Larry Johnson even if they wanted to – and that’s exactly what happened. Larry has said all the right things and returns to action this week the Saints, a team that can’t stop anyone on the ground or through the air and have given up an average of 25 points per game. That means LJ and the Chiefs should be able to put some points on the board and I would expect a lot of ball control as a way to keep that Saints offense off the field. I know a lot of owners will be nervous about putting LJ back in the lineup after being off for so long, but I really don’t see how he won’t get 20-25 touches in this one.
Cardinals wide receiver Steve Breaston has become one of the biggest surprises of the season and continues to impress. In his nine starts this season, he already has five games where he’s caught 7 or more passes, and has gone over 100 yards three times. The only downside to Breaston is his TD production, but it’s not unexpected considering he’s playing alongside studs like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. This week I’m expecting another good game from Breaston (and all the Cardinal receivers) against the 31st ranked Seahawks pass defense. His owners should do everything they can to get this guy in their lineup – even over more established “name” players who are not producing.
Brandon Jacobs exploded in Week 10, rushing the football 22 times for 126 yards and 2TDs. So, the question is, should fantasy owners sell-high, or hang onto the beast-of-a-runner? I say sell-high, but ONLY if the price is right. Here is the deal... I like Jacobs a lot right now, but in Weeks 11-17, the Giants face just TWO rushing defense that are NOT inside the league's top 10. In fact, in Weeks 11-14, Jacobs faces the Ravens, Cardinals, Redskins and Eagles. All four are inside the league's top 10 against the run (pending the Monday night game tonight). Again, I like Jacobs a lot and I do NOT recommend that fantasy owners sell-low, but if the right offer comes along, consider Jacobs' schedule moving forward. What is solid value for Jacobs? Get on our FFX Forums, or use our new 'Ask Our Staff' feature!
Tony Romo (finger) is expected to start Week 11 at Washington, which means Terrell Owens will once again be a top 3-5 fantasy receiver. If the Owens owner in your league is treating No. 81 like a receiver not in the top 5, be sure to steal him away from that fantasy owners. Romo could be a bit rusty during his first game back from his finger injury, but he will be "money" enough to find Owens and find him often. Washington, at home, is capable of maintaining a lead in this one, or at least a close game, which means Romo will be passing a lot in the third and fourth quarter. Expect huge numbers out of Owens in Week 11 and beyond!
Rams coach Jim Haslett has already announced Steven Jackson out for their game this weekend and has named Kenneth Darby the starter. It is an interesting call by Haslett to say the least, especially considering Darby has only carried the ball twice in the regular season since being drafted in 2007. Pittman would be the more logical choice to start considering his 19/83 performance a couple of weeks ago against the Patriots – so one has to wonder if starting Darby is a ruse by Haslett. Personally, I’d stay away from this situation unless you are desperate at the RB position. Yes, Darby could surprise everyone this week, but realistically chances are much better he will do very little and he could end up with less carries than Pittman when it’s all said and done - in spite of the “starter” tag. If you really need to make a choice on whether to use him or not, post your roster in our forums and get feedback from our expert user community.
We are now ten weeks into the season and Braylon Edwards has not produced like the elite WR we all thought he was. Only a year removed from his breakout 80/1289/16 TD season, Edwards is on pace for 48/839 and 5 TDs - those are barely WR3 numbers, let alone WR1 numbers. So what can Edwards owners expect moving forward? For the remainder of this season, I don’t know that I see much changing for Edwards, especially when you consider Brady Quinn has just begun learning on the job. His playoff schedule - @ TEN week 14 and @PHI week 15 is looking pretty daunting, so if you own him in redraft leagues, now may be the time to see what you can get for him in trade. His value is pretty low, so it may not even be possible, but it’s worth looking into. For dynasty owners I say stick with him, because he should bounce back next season once he and Quinn develop a rapport.
Larry Johnson has been a hot topic lately. After getting off to a hot start, he was suspended for three weeks by the team for (let’s just say) poor choices and then suspended by the league for the Chiefs Week 10 game. The question on a lot of fantasy owners’ minds is will he be back next week? It’s not easy to answer because it requires getting inside coach Herm Edwards’ head, but I’m starting to think the Chiefs will have little choice but to play him. Edwards is already on record saying rookie Jamaal Charles is not built to carry the load, and with Kolby Smith on injured reserve that leaves only Dantrall Savage and Jackie Battle. I can’t imagine Herm would refuse to play LJ while trying to save his own job at the same time, so I think Johnson will almost certainly play again beginning next week. Hang in there LJ owners – the nightmare may end beginning next week.
What a year for quarterback injuries, and the list grew longer this past week with Matt Schaub out for 2-4 weeks, possibly longer. All of this opens the door for Sage Rosenfels to be a legitimate fantasy starter – not something you would have thought in early September. You could do worse though, so don’t be afraid to pick this guy up – especially with a good supporting cast around him and a solid running game. His matchup this week against Baltimore is probably his toughest, although I still expect decent numbers, but after that he draws teams like Indianapolis, Cleveland,and Jacksonville (at home) – all decent matchups. After that, Shaub could be back and you might be looking elsewhere, but he’s a nice fill-in for at least the next month.
If you need a quarterback right now, you better go grab Sage Rosenfels. Matt Schaub could be out at least one month due to a torn MCL. Rosenfels has tremendous fantasy upside moving forward and he should be grabbed in all leagues, especially dynasty leagues. It's funny, I even had one friend ask me if he should trade away Andre Johnson before the Schaub injury news got out. I almost slapped him. Rosenfels is very talented, so A.J. will be just fine. Rosey will be just fine! In two of my dynasty expert leagues, I have Tony Romo... well, I have Sage Rosenfels in both of those leagues and I have no problem starting Rosey until Romo returns to action.
With both Michael Pittman (neck) and Andre Hall (hand) out for the season, the starting job will be handed to either Selvin Young or rookie Ryan Torain. Since Young (groin) is still not 100%, I think Torain will get the start in Week 10 and I think he will have a very solid game. Expect Torain to produce top 10-12 fantasy running back numbers in Weeks 10-16 if he does get the nod.
Before Sunday, Steven Jackson posted on his own personal Website that he was ready for Week 9 against the Cardinals. What he forgot to mention to fantasy fans all over was that he was not in shape and that he would only get seven carries (17 yards rushing). If you own Jackson, don't freak out and trade him like a second-round talent... he reportedly didn't struggle on Sunday due to injury, he was just out of shape. The combination of that and the fact that the Rams were gunning from behind for most of the afternoon, that made it tough for the Rams to run Jackson out on the field. While we think Jackson is healthy, be sure to check our news tomorrow in case there is some injury news on the guy, but to our knowledge the stud should be ready for Week 10. Antonio Pittman might be out for the season, or at least a handful of games, and Travis Minor suffered a head injury in Week 9... this could guarantee Jackson his usual workload in Week 10 (if he is in fact healthy enough to play).
It's time to believe! Tim Hightower not only has very solid value looking forward in redraft leagues, this kid is starting to look like an extremely valuable dynasty player. Hightower got the start over Edgerrin James in Week 9 at the Rams, and he certainly delivered for the Cards, rushing for 109 yards and a TD on 22 carries. If you own the rookie, don't sell-high just yet. In fact, we're not sure we'd recommend selling at all - not yet, at least. His value is just starting to increase, so if you do want to use the runner to improve your line-up at another position, and you have the depth to make such a move, let Hightower repeat his Week 9 performance next week against the 49ers. His value should only continue to increase. While I'm not sure I'm ready to call him a future RB2 in dynasty leagues, the upside is certainly there.
Willis McGahee (knee) didn't play in Week 9 - This opened the door for rookie Ray Rice, who rushed the football 21 times for 154 yards. He also caught three passes for 22 yards. We admit that we have been McGahee believers right here at FFX, right up until recently, but we have been even bigger believers in suggesting that any McGahee owner has to own all three Ravens running backs. It's clearly key to that situation. That was made crystal clear after this weekend's game. After this monster Week 9 game by Rice, it's safe to say that the rookie might be the best Ravens running back to own from this point moving forward. That can change in a split second, keep that in mind, but for those that set this situation up right, just plug in Rice and you should have some very good fantasy production on Sundays. Keep in mind that LeRon McClain, who ran the ball 14 times for 34 yards and a score in Week 9, will continue to get some touches, but Rice is the man of the hour.
Michael Turner is going to explode over the next three games, as his next three match-ups are against the Raiders, Saints and Broncos. If you can pull off a last minute trade for The Burner, do it! Turner won't be extremely cheap right now, as most will still view him as a top 12RB moving forward, but his recent back-to-back 50-yard performances will make him cheaper than he should be. After Sunday's afternoon game against the Raiders, fantasy owners are going to hold onto the Falcons' runner with a kung fu grip.
Like Randy Moss, Terrell Owens has lost a lot of value since his quarterback went down with an injury. The difference is that Tony Romo will be back. The Cowboys stud QB will sit out Week 9 - The Cowboys then have a bye the following week, but Romo is expected back in Week 11. One could wait and see if Owens gets even cheaper with a disappointing week 9 (with Brad Johnson slinging passes), but my advice is to attack Owens now while fantasy owners are down on him. The upcoming bye week is really going to make the receiver cheaper than he should be - Take full advantage of this and go get yourself a top 3WR for Weeks 11-16 before it's too late!
I really like Michael Pittman this week against the Dolphins. Pittman practiced fully on Wednesday, so unless he suffers a setback of some kind, he looks like a lock to start this week. The Dolphins rushing defense ranks in the middle of the league, so the aggressive Pittman should have a big day. I'm thinking 100 and at least one score for this week. Look for Ryan Torain to start stealing touches in the coming weeks, but all that won't start until next week. I expect Pittman to get 20+ carries in Week 9. I'd even recommend starting Pittman over questionable starts like Willis McGahee (injured) and Earnest Graham (losing touches). Pittman is a much safer option to me.
Larry Johnson met with Roger Goodell on Tuesday, which is never a good thing for NFL players. According to numerous reports, it looks like LJ is going to be hit with a three-game suspension (simple assault), but the news gets worse. The league's decision might not be handed down this week, which means that LJ will be available for Week 9, right? Wrong. The team will likely deactivate, or bench, LJ for Week 9 no matter what. This means that LJ could miss a month of action. And who knows where he will stand with the team upon his return. Rookie Jamaal Charles is out for a while with a high ankle sprain, which means Kolby Smith is probably going to start for the Chiefs in the coming weeks. Check your free agent pool and make sure Smith isn't available. If so, grab him!
I am as frustrated as anyone with Maurice Jones-Drew, and with half of the season already gone by, it may be time to call him a bust. None of it has to do with his talent of course, he is simply not getting the carries he needs to get the job done. Consider his best two games this season - a 107 yard, 1 TD performance vs. Indy and a 125 yard, 2 TD performance vs Denver - both came when he got 19 or more carries. In his other five starts, he is averaging 7 carries for 20 yards – that is not top 20 RB material in anyone’s book. Yes, “MoJo” has the ability to break one at any point in a game, but that is not reason enough to start him as a RB1 or RB2 unless you have no other options or the matchup justifies it. All that said, his upcoming matchups with Cincy and Detriot should be favorable ones – let’s hope he gets back on track in those games.
The JT O’Sullivan experiment may be over in San Francisco. As you probably already know, JT was benched just before halftime by new head coach Mike Singletary and replaced by Shaun Hill. The move was certainly justifiable; O’Sullivan was leading the league in turnovers (17) after playing in less than eight games, but the question remains as to whether he will get his job back. I would say probably not considering that Shaun Hill played pretty well for the remainder of that game Sunday - completing 15 passes for 173 yards and a TD. More importantly, Hill did not turn the ball over. Even if JT somehow manages to start again, you can bet he will be on a short leash and is not someone to count on as a fantasy starter (or backup) for your squad. Keep an eye on the situation, but consider O’Sullivan expendable if anything better at the QB position comes along on the waiver wire.
The current state of the Chiefs offense seems to have many down on their primary weapon Dwayne Bowe, but I’m here to tell you that the numbers prove otherwise. In spite of the fact that the Chiefs only average 257 yards and 12 points per game, Bowe is still putting up good numbers in that offense. His worst game so far was a four catch performance in week 3 against Atlanta, but he still managed to catch a TD in that game – in all other games so far, he has caught 5 passes and/or gone over 80 yards receiving. Obviously, he could be doing a whole lot better if the Chiefs had their act together, but overall he’s playing like a WR3 with the upside to put up WR2 stats in any given week. For this week’s game, I think he’s a good bet for 6-70 and a possible TD against a Jets team not known for their ability to stop the pass.
With LaMont Jordan having reinjured that calf in practice and now out for the Patriots, reports are suggesting both Kevin Faulk and Benjarvis Green-Ellis will split the carries this weekend. That’s just a guess of course, because no one really knows how this will play out when the Pats hit the field on Sunday. I happen to believe Faulk is the better play, especially if you are in a PPR league, since he has always had great hands and knows the offense very well. As it is, he has the highest average per carry of all Patriot backs at 6.6, and has already hauled in 16 passes for 120 yards. No doubt you’ll see Green-Ellis play on Sunday, but I think his split will be more like 30/70 in Faulk’s favor. If you are in need of a plug and play RB this weekend, Faulk is not a bad option to consider as he could easily amass 100 total yards and a TD against that weak St. Louis run defense.
I have to say it’s nice to see one of my favorite preseason rookie wide receivers finally getting some attention after the early season success of other rookies like DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal. Avery has come onto the scene over the last two weeks for the suddenly resurgent Rams, catching 8-for-128 and a TD in that span. That’s not the whole story though; over those last two weeks, Avery has been targeted 11 times to Holt’s 16, and actually got more looks than Holt last week at 6 to 5. It tells me that Avery’s play has solidified him in that #2 role alongside Holt, and his production should only get better as the season goes on. If you are in a pinch this week, Avery is not a bad option against an already mediocre Patriots secondary now missing Rodney Harrison.
With injuries piling up and another bye week upon us, a guy like Lamont Jordan is someone to take a look at. Sammy Morris is still ailing from the injury he sustained Monday night, so it appears Jordan is in line to get his first start of the season if he can get through practice this week. It couldn’t have come at a better time either, as the Pats play host to the Rams, a team ranked 30th against the run – giving up 152 yards and almost 2 TDs per game on the ground. Some caution is required with Morris’ status still up in the air, so be sure to watch the weekend injury reports to make sure Morris is out and Jordan is getting the nod. If he does, I think he could be in line for a 100 yard game and a score against the Rams.
Willis McGahee played great in Week 7, rushing for 105 yards and a score. Use that outing and try trading into a safer runner - And do it before Week 8. I like McGahee talent-wise, and I love his situation under Cam Cameron, but his recent knee issues have me concerned. McGahee had fluid drained from his knee leading into last week's game and he apparently played through some serious knee pain on Sunday. You may have to give up a bit more to get a deal like this done, but try trading into a Marshawn Lynch type, or even attack a runner like Ryan Grant. Get yourself a runner with healthy wheels!
Rookie Benjarvus Green-Ellis might just be the new starting running back for the Patriots. Who? Yea, we have looked him up in a few of our expert leagues and the league management player pool didn't even have him listed yet. Yea, that can cause some FCFS (first come first serve) issues. Back to Green-Ellis.. So, this rookie running back stepped up in a major way on Sunday (65 rushing yards and 1TD) when Sammy Morris went down with a knee injury. The verdict on Morris is not yet known, so be sure to monitor his health. If bad news breaks on Morris' knee, this rook will be one of this week's hottest pick-ups. If Morris is good to go for Week 8, or even close to it, Green-Ellis is still worth monitoring as we head in the direction of Week 8.
We have said this for weeks, but it's worth repeating -- Grab Ryan Torain now if for any reason he is available in your league. The combination of Torain and Michael Pittman could serve as a sneaky RB2 down the stretch. Shanny openly pimped Torain this past off-season and the rookie was one of our favorite deep sleepers heading into the year (before he suffered his elbow injury). Now, we like Pittman right now and the veteran looked great in both Weeks 6 and 7, but the key to that situation is owning both backs. We typically advise fantasy owners to stay clear of the Denver running back situation, but it all boils down to value. You're not overspending with these two and the combo's upside is huge. Denver does have a bye in Week 8, though. Know that.
One of my favorite running backs to target right now via trade is Maurice Jones-Drew. He could be a rock down the stretch, as he is coming fresh off a bye and the game before that he rushed for 125 yards and 2TDs. Prior to his Week 6 explosion, MJD had been extremely inconsistent, and this is why you still might be able to acquire the little guy at a reasonable price. He won't be a "steal" any longer via trade, as that 125/2 performance will still be fresh in everyone's minds, but the uncertainty of whether or not his fantasy success will continue, that's your way in! I say get him now at his slightly-elevated value because his solid play will likely continue, which means that his value might only increase. Moving forward, MJD has top 12RB upside in my book.
So far this season, Drew Brees is averaging 332 passing yards per game and is on pace for 5,314 passing yards. He is only on pace for 32 touchdowns, but keep in mind that he has been without Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey for most of the season. When Week 17 approaches, I'm not quite sure Brees will hit that 5,314 mark, but whatever points he loses in yardage he will make up for in touchdowns now that he has his two best receiving options back in the line-up. There is a chance Shockey isn't ready for this week, and the same goes for Colston, but if I had to guess right now I'd say that Brees will have all of his weapons in Week 7. I can't believe I'm saying this, because it's hard to believe, but Brees might just get better in the second half of this season.
I consider Matt Shaub one of the best plays at the QB position this weekend. He is facing a Lions defense which has surrendered an average of 250 passing yards per game (3rd worst), and has allowed opposing QBs to put up an average rating of 112 against them, which is a league worst. On top of that, the Lions have allowed opposing QBs to complete a pass of 40 yards or more 7 times, which is also a league worst. Think there is anyone Shaub could throw to that can haul in a 40 yard pass? Bingo. Andre Johnson should be able to manhandle those corners and hook up with Shaub on some deep pass plays, maybe even grab one for a TD. I think you get the picture – Shaub and company should have a field day against that Lions defense, and it’s pretty easy to picture his final yardage total being up over 300 with at least two TDs.
For a guy who was likely waiver wire fodder to begin the season, Mushin Muhammed has been quietly putting up good numbers over the first six weeks. "Moose" is averaging nearly 5 catches a week for 71 yards, but has been slightly more effective when playing against the weaker pass defenses in the league, especially his game vs. Atlanta where he put up 8/147 and a touchdown. This week's opponent, New Orleans, is another bottom-third team against the pass, and it is highly likely the Panthers will need to throw to keep pace with that high octane offense. All in all, it should be a very nice week for your WR3/flex player in Muhammed, and I expect him to out produce his averages this week and be in the 7-for-90 range with a touchdown.
Jamaal Charles might just start this week against the Titans. L.J. has already been ruled out, according to a couple reports, which means the team will likely turn to Charles to start Sunday's game against the Titans. The Titans defense is tough, so Charles should only be looked at as a decent flex-option, but given the Week 7 byes and injuries, don't hesitate to use the runner if you're in need.
Ryan Grant has been a major disappoint to his owners so far this season, having yet to score a touchdown and sitting with an average of 3.4 yards per carry. All of this in direct contrast to his performance in the 2nd half of 2007 where he had a 5.1 yard per carry average and a TD in seven of his final eight games. So, which is the real Grant and what do owners do now? First, stay patient and understand that Grant was battling a hamstring injury in the early part of this season - his 33 carry performance last week is a good indication he is fully healed and ready for a strong second half. His next opponent is the Colts, and I expect Jackson to put up his best numbers of the season – 100+ yards and a touchdown (yes a touchdown!) – and then it’s a bye week and a strong second half. He's one of the top buy-low candidates at RB right now.
Now is the time to trade for Ryan Torain. Don't get me wrong, I'm extremely high on Michael Pittman moving forward, but Shanahan is known for making quick changes at the running back position and he has made it clear that he loves the rookie. For now, Pittman is the man in Denver, but after the Broncos' Week 8 bye, Shanny could get anxious to use his rook. The only way to truly secure yourself some crafty RB2-type production all season long (with this situation) is to lock-up both Torain and Pittman. I truly believe that this combo can produce some extremely solid fantasy numbers from here on out.
Willie Parker suffered a setback on Monday and may sit out Week 7 against the Bengals. FWP has been trying to get his knee right, but apparently he isn't quite as healthy as many had thought. Keep in mind that things could improve between now and game-time, but Mewelde Moore should be owned in all leagues. Check your free agent player pool just in case! If FWP can't go against the Bengals this week, Moore all of the sudden becomes an excellent flex or bye week option.
When Tony Romo (finger) returns to action in roughly four weeks, he might just be a top 8 overall fantasy player (from that point on). Dallas acquiring WR Roy Williams from Detroit is HUGE for Romo's dynasty value - We own the guy in both of our Dynasty Expert Leagues and he is going to be just about untouchable via trade after the Roy Williams addition. Many fantasy owners were giving up on Roy Williams heading into this week - Hopefully you weren't one of them, because his dynasty value just increased quite a bit now that he is in a Cowboys' uniform (and Roy is about to get an extension through 2013, which is huge for both Romo and Williams' owners). We will keep you posted on Romo's (finger) progress in the coming weeks - Hopefully he can get back in 3-4 weeks vs. 4-5.
Roy Williams has been traded to the Cowboys, which means that his fantasy value is back on the rise! With Jon Kitna out for the season with a back injury, and with Calvin Johnson taking over the WR1 role for the Lions, there was nothing left for Williams over in Detroit. Tony Romo now has two top 10WR talents -- All he has to do is get back on the field. Congrats to those who didn't give up on Roy Williams in dynasty leagues... his dynasty value just increased a ton with this trade (especially since he is about to sign an extension through 2013)!
Ok, before I even begin, know that there is risk in acquiring Earnest Graham right now, but honestly I believe he is well worth the risk given the cost. He is being treated like a flex-type fantasy player, which is a steal. Last week the runner was asked to unselfishly play full-back and the guy stepped up. Warrick Dunn benefited, but Graham was still asked to punch in the touchdown... Graham is averaging 5.6 yards per carry... he just needs the football in order to produce top 10RB production. The only risk sits with whether or not he gets the carries... not a bad risk if you ask me (given the cost).
Wow. That's how you bust out of a slump! We have been calling Braylon Edwards (and Andre Johnson) top 5ish WRs looking forward despite their slow starts this year... and many have been questioning our loyalty to those two. Andre Johnson has already responded and Edwards is ready to prove our loyalty worthy as well. We won't lie, the other player on our "Don't Give Up On Them" list is Chad Ocho Cinco, but if Palmer eventually returns to action, we believe that Chad will have his bounce-back day as well. As for Edwards, it's great to see Derek Anderson back on track and did he ever look good? Edwards has already had his bye, so get ready for a long string of solid performances!
He's back! So is Braylon Edwards. Keep in mind that D.A. is still going to be on a short leash if the team loses some upcoming contests, but he looked as sharp as ever on Monday night against a tough Giants defense. If you're one of the many fantasy owners who just lost Tony Romo (finger) for the next four weeks, see what kind of quarterback coverage the Anderson owner has in your league. Maybe you can get Anderson by trading that owner a player that will help with the upcoming byes. Or, let's say the D.A. owner owns Brian Westbrook and you own Correll Buckhalter. Explore those kinds of options in order to solve your quarterback problems. Anderson is definitely worth a look if you're in need.
Is Randy Moss worth trading for? Or, is it time for Moss owners to unload the stud? Moss caught just three passes for 26 yards in Week 6 against the Chargers. The Patriots looked awful, but what most fantasy owners won't realize, or take into account, is that the New England receiver was targeted 10 times on Sunday. Are we concerned about Matt Cassell delivering the football? Sure, that's why Moss is a buy-low candidate... because there is risk. Invest in Moss if the price is right? What is the right price? Well, if you can get Moss at the cost of a WR2, I say go for it. Inconsistency is to be expected at times in that offense, but since New England may have to pass their way back into some contests moving forward, Moss should see plenty of targets.
Running back Brian Westbrook has already been ruled out for the Eagles week 6 game at San Francisco, so if you are looking for a good one week play Correll Buckhalter is it. Buckhalter is averaging 3.8 ypc this season to Westbrook’s 3.6 and is as heavily involved in the passing game as Westy is. As an opponent, the 49ers are not exactly stout against the run, giving up an average of 128 yards per game against opposing rushers – a great matchup for the Eagles. I wouldn’t hesitate to start Buckhalter on Sunday and would expect him to go over 100 total yards and score a TD.
Joseph Addai and the Colts play host this week to a great run stopping team in the Baltimore Ravens. And for that reason, whether to start Addai in has been a hot topic on our forums the last few days. I’m here to say stick with Addai this game in spite of the tough matchup on paper. I’m a firm believer in playing your studs, but beyond that I think the Colts present a lot more problems offensively to the Baltimore defense than any of their previous opponents. Peyton Manning is one of the best in the business and that means the Ravens will need to play the Colts honest - I see Addai as big a factor catching passes out of the backfield as on the ground. The Colts need Addai to play well in order to win this game, and I think that will happen. So, unless you have an obvious reason to bench him, give Addai the start this week.
Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging under 10 carries per game. That's awful. His poor play is not his fault, he just needs the carries. His match-up is money this week against the Broncos. Denver ranks 25th against the run giving up over 130 yards per game. They have given up 5 rushing touchdowns so far this season. If you're looking to unload MJD, don't trade him until after he blows up this week. Personally I'd hold onto him, because even if he does well in Week 6, he has a bye in Week 7 and it's always tough trading a player that is heading right into a bye. Plus, I still believe that he can be a top 12RB from this week on.
While most will give up on Chad Ocho Cinco this week, we suggest that you do not. This was already posted in Start/Bench Article by Smitty, but it's worth reading again. Smitty wrote "Back in 2006, Chad went through the first eight games of the season with just one game over 78 yards and had just two scores. Do you remember how this story ends? Here is what transpired over his next five starts — No, not over the course of the season, just five starts… Chad had 11 catches for 260 yards and 2TDs in his 9th game of that season. In the following game, the stud wide receiver pulled in 6 passes for 190 yards and 3TDs. He had 100-yard receiving performances in two of the next three games after that. In those five games alone, starting with his 9th game of the year, Chad racked up 765 receiving yards and 5TDs." Chad knows how to rebound from slumps!
The Michael Pittman situation just got a bit more interesting. Mike Shanahan announced today (Wednesday) that RB Selvin Young will not play in Week 6 due to a groin injury. Knowing Shanny, he won't make any big announcement about who his starter is entering this week's game, but you can count on him turning to Michael Pittman. Shanny has talked Pittman up a lot this week. Even if Pittman doesn't technically start, he could very well get starter-type carries. The Jags are tough, but Pittman is out to prove that he can thrive in that offense -- And Shanny always pulls off things like this. Pittman is likely gone in all leagues, but be sure to check your free agent pool just in case. He is no lock to start this week (yet), or a lock to keep the job even if he does, but his upside is huge under Shanny.
Michael Pittman has been on our "Pick 'Em Up" list for a few weeks now, but if you don't own him and he is still available in your league, go get him! Mike Shanahan loves mixing things up and he had this to say on Pittman's Week 5 performance: "He ran over some safeties, ran over some corners. Obviously, the better you play, the more time you're going to get." Starting Pittman and turning him into a top 12RB (per start) is just how Shanny rolls. Seriously, who can't see this happening? I still like Ryan Torain (elbow) down the stretch, so also make sure that the rookie isn't available in your league, but Pittman could start Week 6, or at least get starter-type carries. He could even hang onto the job for the remainder of the season -- Anything is possible with Shanny these days!
Fantasy owners had a chance to sell-high last week, but after his two monster back-to-back performances in Weeks 3 and 4, where he rushed for over 300 yards and had three touchdowns, even we advised that fantasy owners hang onto him. Selling Johnson this week isn't a logical option, as the Chiefs have a bye and L.J. is coming off of an outing where he racked up just two yards rushing. Johnson owners just have to wait until after the bye week to make any moves. If you try now, you just won't get enough. Johnson's schedule is decent, so you should get another 100-yard game out of him soon enough and then you can explore some trade options. He still may be worth keeping despite today's horrible performance, especially after he has his bye week behind him, but inconsistency must be expected given how bad that Kansas City offense and defense is.
One of my favorite "buy-low" running backs right now is Marshawn Lynch. In Week 5, Lynch rushed the football just 13 times for 55 yards. That's his second poor performance in a row, as he only had 57 yards on 19 carries the week before. Lynch has four touchdowns on the year, but because the beast-of-a-runner has yet to rush for over 100 yards, and because he will be on a bye in Week 6, now might be just the right time to go after the stud on the cheap. Lynch is a top 8RB looking forward, yet you might be able to get the Bills rusher at the cost of a RB2 - Obviously it would be smart to acquire him after the bye this upcoming week, but being willing to accept the bye week might be a piece of leverage you may need to get the right deal done. I say go get him now.
Marques Colston (thumb) should be back by Week 8 against the Chargers, so now would be the time to go after him via trade. Now, don't go trading a Greg Jennings for Colston, but if you can get the Saints receiver using a Laveranues Coles or Chris Chambers type, don't even hesitate! This is especially the case if you have a guy like Chris Henry on your bench. Trade your Chambers or Coles type for Colston, then plug Henry into your line-up, then just sit back and wait for the top 10WR to get back into that Saints' line-up.
If for some reason Chris Henry is available in your league, grab him immediately. Don't assume he is gone, go check! Henry has been activated by the Bengals and will likely be the team's third receiver right out of the gate. Even if it takes him a week to get settled, the extremely talented receiver is capable of catching eight touchdowns on the year. Grab him now and stash him on your bench. You might be inserting him into your line-up in the coming weeks over receivers that you probably never thought you'd be benching.
If you're off to an 0-4 start, or even a 1-3 start, roll the dice in a downgrade-like move and target a runner like Joseph Addai. What I mean is, let's say you own LaDainian Tomlinson... well, look into downgrading yourself into a Joseph Addai if it means you get to upgrade at another position. An example of this would be to pull off a trade that would land you Addai and an Andre Johnson for Tomlinson and a sell-high WR (that isn't in Johnson's tier). Addai is going to be just fine and he could play like a top 3-4 running back down the stretch - Attack him before he has a monster game... by doing so, you may get your hands on a huge WR1 upgrade.
Another sleeper to keep in mind for this weekend is Cardinals receiver Steve Breaston. With Anquan Boldin likely to miss time with a head injury, Breaston could be a great play on a team that loves to sling the ball around. This is especially true for any receiver playing opposite Larry Fitzgerald, who will likely draw a lot of double teams with no Boldin for the opposing defense to worry about. Breaston already has 18 catches on the season – 9 coming in last week’s shootout in New York - so he’s already established himself as the clear #3. I don’t think it would be out of the question for him to put a 6+ catch performance this week if Boldin is out of the lineup.
If for some reason Leon Washington is available in your league, you may want to grab him! There is a lot of talk right now about how Thomas Jones has lost a step, and his 3.8 yards per carry average, in a good offense, could open the door for Washington. Washington actually started Week 4 against the Cards, but only received 7 carries to Thomas Jones' 18. Still, Washington's role is expanding and he knows how to make plays - Jones will likely lose more touches moving forward if he doesn't step up.
If you are thin at the RB position and are looking for a sleeper to put in your lineup this week, Felix Jones might be the answer. Yeah, I know, he had zero carries in last week’s game against the Redskins, but then again Marion Barber ended that game with only 8 carries – it was not a normal day for the Cowboys offensively. Prior to last week, Jones had scored in his first three games – a Cowboy record – and racked up 148 yards on 18 carries for a whopping 8.1 average. This week the ‘Boys are facing a Bengals team which has surrendered 40 or more carries to 3 of their first 4 opponents, and I expect the Cowboys to make it 4 out of 5 this week with Barber and Jones. With double-digit carries and a few catches thrown in, he could near 70 total yards and a touchdown, he’s already done that twice this year.
I'm going to pile on the Andre Johnson advice. "X" is right - Now is the time to strike A.J. via trade. His Week 1 performance, where he grabbed 10 receptions for 112 yards, is almost a forgotten outing. His fantasy owners are probably more upset than ever, as Matt Schaub just threw for 307 yards and 3TDs in Week 4 and Johnson only pulled in three passes for 38 yards. Steal Johnson away from frustrated owner before it's too late. With his bye week out of the way, the stud receiver could help carry you into the playoffs.
The player you might want to grab off your waiver wire is Najeh Davenport -- Not Mewelde Moore. Yes, we're talking about the guy that was arrested for allegedly breaking into a university dormitory and defecating in a woman's closet -- Yea, that guy! Want to hear something almost as unbelievable as that load of information? Najeh Davenport scored seven total touchdowns in 2007! He ran for five and caught two. He was also the team's second leading rusher with 499 yards. Now, FWP might be good to go after the team's bye week in Week 6, but if he isn't, Davenport could all of the sudden become somewhat valuable. It would be risky to play the runner this week, but if you're struggling with byes and injuries, you could be looking at 10-14 carries and a score this week against the Jags. Again, don't expect too much, as the Steelers might be trying to take advantage of the upcoming bye, giving FWP some extra rest, but grab Davenport just in case!
The time is now to buy low on Andre Johnson. Fickle fantasy footballers are down on AJ after two and three catch performances the last two weeks, but conveniently forget his 10 catch performance week one. Take advantage. There is absolutely no reason to think he won’t put up the numbers we are used to, because just like most other elite players, Johnson will have down weeks from time to time. In 2006 he had 103 receptions, but had individual weeks that season where he caught 1, 2 and 4 passes. Again in 2007 after coming back from injury he had a 3-37 week – surrounded by weeks where he caught 6, 9 and 9 with a touchdown in each. It happens, even the best players can’t put up monster performances week in - week out, but over the course of an entire season Andre will have his numbers. If you are in a position to make a trade for that production, you should do it now.
Rashard Mendenhall suffered a separated shoulder on Monday night against the Ravens. The rookie is out for the season. It's a tough break for fantasy owners in 2008, and a season-ending injury like this can even affect a player's future value, but Mendy might be worth the risk if the price is right. If you're off to an awful start in your dynasty league, consider going Mendy shopping this week. Fantasy owners are going to be extremely down on the guy's future value. There is still some risk attached to the rookie given the severity of the injury, but again, he is worth the risk if priced right.
Now is the perfect time to trade for Santonio Holmes. Actually, the perfect time to trade for the deep-threat might be after Week 4, as the Steelers face the Ravens on Monday night, but it isn't a bad idea to grab the receiver now before he explodes. Holmes is the league's best deep threat... He proved that last season leading all receivers (with over 50 catches) in yards per catch. Don't let his slow start cause you to doubt his value looking forward. Again, Holmes could be slowed again this week, but he has fantasy WR2 upside at the cost of a fantasy WR3. Attack him via trade while you still can.
If you're in desperate need at your WR3 this week, consider picking up and starting Saints WR Lance Moore. Again, this is only advised if you're scrambling for a starter due to the Week 4 bye - With Jeremy Shockey out, and David Patten not likely to play (or at least play a lot), Moore is likely to start opposite Devery Henderson this week against the 49ers. Now, I'm not just swinging for the fences here, Moore just caught 7 passes for 78 yards in Week 3, and he has been kind of a sleeper here at FFX for quite some time, so consider him a nice little gamble if you're in need at the position.
Thinking about giving up on Chad Ocho Cinco already? If so, that could be a BIG mistake. Back in 2006, Chad went through the first eight games of the season with just one game over 78 yards and just two scores... do you remember what happened during his next four starts? We will refesh your memory. Chad had 11 catches for 260 yards and 2TDs in his 9th game of that season. In the following game, the stud pulled in 6 passes for 190 yards and 3TDs. He had 100-yard receiving performances in two of the next three weeks after that. In those five games alone, starting with his 9th start of the year, Chad racked up 765 receiving yards and 5TDs. Keep this in mind when you doubt him due to a slump. He goes through slumps, that's Chad, but he can often rebound bigger than anyone in the league!
I think Jonathan Stewart is on the verge of becoming a top 10 fantasy running back looking forward. Is it possible that DeAngelo Williams will continue to get half the carries moving forward? Sure, but Williams is getting outplayed by J-Stew and I firmly believe that the Panthers will soon officially turn to Stewart as their feature back. Fantasy worlds could be a couple weeks away before the Panthers begin the transition process, but my gut tells me that Stewart will get some serious work in Week 4, enough to immediately raise his fantasy value above runners like Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Julius Jones and Ryan Grant. After two weeks of starting (after the Week 5 bye), I predict that the rookie vaults past runners like Earnest Graham and even Ronnie Brown? Crazy? Yea, well... so were our Michael Turner predictions.
Derek Anderson will be on a short leash in Week 4 against the Bengals, but I truly believe that the quarterback will respond with a monster performance. Last year in Week 2 against the Bengals, Anderson threw for 328 yards, 5TDs and 1 INT. I'm not expecting 5TDs this week, but I think 300+ and 3 scores isn't out of the question. Make no mistake, if the Browns lose this game, even if Anderson plays decent-to-solid, Brady Quinn might just start Week 6 at home against the Giants. That Week 5 bye is perfect timing for the Browns to switch quarterbacks, so Anderson owners better hope the guy steps up. Again, I think he will. I see elite talent in Anderson and I believe the Week 2 winds and that Baltimore match-up in Week 3 were tough situations to be put in.
The Vikings rushing attack will face a stiff test this week on the road in Tennessee and it has some of you considering benching your star player Adrian Peterson. Unless you are absolutely stacked at running back and have the fortitude to bench someone of his caliber, AP needs to be in your lineup this week against the Titans. Keep in mind that rookie Steve Slaton went for over 100 yards and a score last week against Tennessee, and Chris Perry went for 64 and a TD two weeks ago. Peterson is clearly a more explosive back than either of those guys and it will only take one long scamper to get you the points you need from him – something which he is capable of at any time against any opponent. If you need more convincing, I’ll go on the record with 100+ total yards and a score this week for "All Day".
Drew Brees continues to lose his primary weapons – first Marques Colston and now Jeremy Shockey – leaving some to wonder if this will this affect his output moving forward… I say no way. The Saints are loaded at the offensive skill positions and Brees will find a way to spread the ball around to all of those guys as needed – he’s completed passes to nine different players in each of his last two games. Bush should see his receptions continue to hover around the double-digit mark while Brees and that offense continue to sling the ball around to the tune of 35-40 attempts per game. Brees is not someone you should consider taking out of your lineup under any circumstances, and will be a good play against the 49ers this week. I’m predicting another 300 yard game with multiple touchdown tosses.
Now is the time to grab Bengals WR Chris Henry off the waiver wire. The receiver's four game suspension will be over after this week and the talented athlete will be ready to catch touchdown passes right out of the gate. Carson Palmer and gang finally got things going in Week 3, and I believe that the unit will build off that entering Week 4. Not only is this a great time to pick-up Henry, it is actually a solid time to go trade for Palmer. With Henry back in the line-up, Palmer is going to have a much easier time completing passes and tossing touchdowns. Now go check and see if Henry is available in your league's free agent pool - With Chad Ocho Cinco (shoulder) still a bit banged up, who knows how valuable Henry could become down the stretch.
In need of an upside running back, one that you can stash on your bench? If so, consider grabbing Michael Pittman. I've been talking him up for weeks now as a guy to monitor and I have a feeling we're about to see more of him real soon. He is probably already taken in larger leagues, but be sure to check your free agent player pool immediately. Coach Mike Shanahan just called Pittman the team's "workhorse" running back, and considering that Pittman has four touchdowns through three weeks, we might be witnessing Pittman's rise into that starting line-up. It's no lock, but he is worth a grab considering how well he could play if handed the keys to that starting line-up. He is already getting more than a touchdown per game... imagine how valuable he'd be if he was getting 100 yards on top of it.
We firmly believe in Larry Johnson talent-wise, and he has at least two years left (talent-wise)... but that doesn't change the fact that he is probably on the worst team in the NFL. That offense can't move the football down the field for anything, and they will be playing from behind just about every single week. That isn't a good formula for rushing the football. Consider trading L.J. now while you still can. Coming off his impressive Week 3 performance (121-1), you might be able to trade the runner for an upside guy like Maurice Jones-Drew or Willis McGahee, both underrated if you ask us. If you can trade across position due to solid running back depth, trade L.J. for Braylon Edwards or Andre Johnson. Both receivers should rebound here shortly.
If your team is in need of a spark at the running back position, look into acquiring Maurice Jones-Drew via trade. The little guy exploded in Week 3 against the Colts, rushing the ball 19 times for 107 yards and one score. He also caught four passes for 59 yards. After that performance, you'd think MJD would be hard to trade for, but because Fred Taylor also exploded against the Colts (26 times for 121 yards), some MJD owners could be looking to sell-high. Take advantage! Even though there is a touch of risk rolling with MJD (given Taylor's workload), the "Human Bowling Ball" has top 5-10RB upside if getting the touches. If you're looking to cash-in on a player like Larry Johnson, MJD is your guy! Need more help? Get on our FFX Forums or try our new "Ask Our Staff" feature.
It looks like Matt Schaub will get another shot to start in Week 4, but if he falters, expect the team to quickly turn to Sage Rosenfels. I like Rosenfels a lot and I firmly believe that he can instantly put up top 10 fantasy QB numbers if forced into that Houston starting line-up. Only consider grabbing him in the deepest of redraft leagues, as you could be a week or two away from being able to use the guy, but he should be grabbed right now in just about every dynasty league. If Rosey gets in there, it could actually help the value of Andre Johnson.
As you have probably heard, Willie Parker has already been ruled out of Week 4 with a knee sprain - Rashard Mendenhall will be the Steelers' No. 1 rusher in Week 4. The bad news is that the rookie's first NFL start is against the Baltimore Ravens. Still, it will be exciting to see Mendy in action as the team's top running back. It is still unknown how injured FWP is, so we can't speculate on how many starts Mendy is going to get. Keep checking our Breaking News Wire throughout the week, as we should have more for you on FWP's knee as the week moves along.
Matt Forte is playing some fantastic football right now and I expect that solid play to continue -- For now. First year rushers tend to hit a rookie wall when they start for their team on day one. College seasons are much shorter than NFL seasons, so rookie often break down after roughly Week 10. It's always possible Forte pushes through the rookie wall, but it's doubtful. My advice is to let the runner continue to earn you solid fantasy points, but consider testing those trade waters right around Week 9.
Now is the time to attack Adrian Peterson via trade! Vikings coach Brad Childress has just said that his stud runner is "no sorer than he was when we went into the game yesterday" and that the runner is "doing just fine." Is there risk? Sure, but AP is absolutely worth it. So what should you give up to acquire the stud? Try working a small package deal, like a Clinton Portis and a WR like Santana Moss. Both Portis and Moss have solid value and both are kind of on our "trade now" list for various reasons. Other players we would look to move in order to upgrade into an Adrian Peterson include: Ronnie Brown and Reggie Bush. Now, I like Reggie a lot this year, and did this past off-season when so many where down on him, but we're talking about AP here. Strike now and package yourself into that upgrade while you still can. One trade we advised an owner to make when he asked us: To get AP and Lee Evans for Portis and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Great move.
Ronnie Brown looked fantastic on Sunday, scoring five total touchdowns to go along with 141 total yards. Brown, who is still not 100 percent recovered from ACL surgery, is clearly healthy enough. It usually takes a running back a full season of playing on a recovering knee before they get back to form, but on a rare occasion a still-young running back can beat the odds. Brown beat those odds. The Dolphins obviously want to make Brown the focal point of that Miami offense, and while the Dolphins won't be ultra-productive every week, fantasy owners can count on top 12 running back numbers moving forward.
If you're in a very deep league, or if you happen to own Jamal Lewis, you may want to consider picking up Jerome Harrison. The Browns coaching staff has made it clear that they want Harrison more involved in the team's offense, and he just caught a 19-yard touchdown pass against the Ravens on Sunday. The Browns are playing awful right now and Lewis doesn't look productive at all, so the coaching staff could change things up a bit entering Week 4. I don't expect the team to bench Lewis, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if we soon see a CLE RBBC.
Brett who? Aaron Rodgers has quieted his critics in Green Bay after going out and throwing for 506 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first two weeks. Yes, it was against two less than stellar defensive teams, but if you’ve watched any of these games you know how poised and calm he has looked. On top of that, he has only thrown one interception and his deep ball to Greg Jennings looks spot on. More than likely you drafted Rodgers as your backup plan at QB, but if he continues to play like this against some of the better teams in the league, you might be looking at your starter – especially if you own Carson Palmer or Derek Anderson. This week against the Cowboys at home, I expect another big game – probably not a repeat of last week, but I think he’ll put up 250 yards and a couple of TD throws, one to Jennings deep.
Let me make one thing clear... almost everyone on staff here at FFX sees this situation different. Some want nothing to do with McGahee, others, like me, still believe. Is there risk? Absolutely, but there was risk in owning Ronnie Brown before last year began, when Cam Cameron threatened to bench the guy in favor of Jesse Chatman. For some reason a few Baltimore beat writers are suggesting that the Ravens are not planning on starting McGahee this week, or even featuring him - I just don't see this as being accurate. Nowhere has that Ravens coaching staff indicated that McGahee isn't the team's starter. That staff has merely mentioned a desire to use all of their rushers. That means nothing in this league. If you own McGahee, don't sell low - You can't. If you don't own McGahee, test the trade waters. All I see with this situation is opportunity. There is risk, make no mistake, but if you own Rice and McClain, like we have said from the start, this situation should work out.
Carson Palmer is a bargain right now via trade. The passer has struggled in a major way thus far in the 2008 season, but the Bengals faced a tough Ravens defense in Week 1, and then had to go against some nasty winds in Week 2... those two factors have to be considered when evaluating Palmer's fantasy value looking forward. Now, Palmer and gang go up against a tough Giants defense in Week 3, so at a glance, the team's bad luck continues, but I really think that now is the time to strike if you want Palmer on the extreme end of cheap. With all the weapons he has at his disposal, the stud still absolutely has top 5QB upside. Not sure how to attack Palmer via trade? Check out our "Ask Our Staff" feature, or jump on our FFX Forums.
Many fantasy owners are not sure what to expect from Steve Smith this week. Well, considering how sharp the Panthers WR looked in the preseason, and given how well this Panthers team is playing so far this year (2-0), I think fantasy owners are not being overly optimistic by expecting top 5-7WR numbers looking forward. Smith is one of the most difficult-to-cover wide receivers in the entire league and he is always a threat to have a multiple-touchdown performance. Get ready for some monster outings... Smith will be on a mission.
If you're looking for an emergency QB in Week three, J.T. O'Sullivan is your guy! O'Sullivan faces an awful Lions defense on Sunday, a secondary that just let Aaron Rodgers throw for 328 yards and 3TDs in Week 2. Frank Gore is also going to explode against Detroit this weekend, as Turner ripped off 220 yards and 2TDs against the Lions back in Week 1. I even recommend starting O'Sullivan over some regular fantasy starters. Obviously I'm not suggesting that anyone bench a Ben Roethlisberger or a Tony Romo for the 49ers quarterback, but in Week three, I like O'Sullivan over guys like Derek Anderson, Matt Schaub and even Brett Favre.
If you told me that I could only recommend one "buy low" player to fantasy worlds, I would have a tough time not campaigning for Maurice Jones-Drew. There are a lot of guys that I recommend buying low, like Braylon Edwards, but no fantasy player has 2008 "rags-to-riches" value like MJD. He is being treated like a very low-end RB2/or flex, yet he has top 10RB upside. That's insane value for "The Human Bowling Ball" and fantasy owners should take full advantage of that. Even if MJD doesn't quite bounce-back like we predict, you're buying him at bargain value, so where is the risk? That's right, there isn't any... MJD is all upside, baby! All upside!
As we just said in our most recent breaking news piece on Willis McGahee, be careful when reading other news wires that are spinning Ravens coach John Harbaugh's recent comments into a RBBC story. Harbaugh has said twice now, once more today, that he wants to get all three of his running backs involved on Sundays... Is there a chance that Harbaugh and Cam Cameron use a RBBC approach looking forward? Sure, anything is possible, but Cameron isn't know for that, especially when he has an elite running back on his roster, and McGahee is an elite runner no matter what anyone says. Ray Rice and fullback Le'Ron McClain are must-have handcuffs for all McGahee owners, make no mistake about that, but Harbaugh's recent comments on loving his running crew should not spell RBBC to anyone reading. Take a step back before dealing McGahee on the cheap. Cameron is a proven fantasy producer (Tomlinson/Brown), so we say don't sell low, but do buy low if you don't own him.
If you own Chad Ocho Cinco, I don’t need to tell you he has been a major disappointment thus far. What used to be a potent Bengals offense has quickly turned into just the opposite and Chad’s 5-for-59 is a stat line you’d not want to see in one game, never mind two. Can you expect things to change? Probably not. The Bengals next game is at the Giants – expect more of the same from Chad and the Bengals in that one. Looking beyond, it’s hard to see how the Bengals offense can get out of this funk with no running game and poor offensive line play. Compounding all of that is Chad’s shoulder injury – one which I think will eventually sideline him for good. Bottom line – look to move him while his value is still relatively high and while others still believe the Bengals will turn things around. In a few more weeks, Ocho might be untradeable.
Sleeper Alert: Kregg Lumpkin could be on the rise in Green Bay. We're not saying to go drop a solid player for Lumpkin just yet, but if you're in a deep dynasty league, or even if you're a Grant owner in a larger redraft league, you may want to consider picking this guy up. He only had one 19-yard carry in Week 2, but he was impressive enough all together to possibly earn a larger role looking forward. Packers coach Mike McCarthy was quoted saying that the rookie has "absolutely" earned more playing time heading into Week 3, which means that Lumpkin will soon be on fantasy radars. He is a powerful rusher and the Pack may start using him very soon. Note that Lumpkin is no lock to produce, but consider this another add/drop experiment worth taking! We will keep you posted if we hear more buzz on this rook.
Is it time to give up on Larry Johnson? The answer is no. I don't say hang with No. 27 because I'm extremely confident in his value moving forward... I say hang with the runner because you can't get enough for him via trade even if you tried. That doesn't mean he can't bounce-back, though. The best plan of attack right now for L.J. owners is to hang tight and hope that coach Herm Edwards figures out that L.J. needs his 20-25 touches per game. If Edwards figures that out, Johnson should turn it around given his nice rushing schedule. If the back's value increase with a few good outings, it isn't a horrible idea to consider trading him, but I wouldn't be surprised if L.J. had a top 10RB season when all is said and done. L.J. is NOT done! He is only 28. Overworked? Wrong again. Johnson has just 1,084 NFL carries to his name. It is all about carries - L.J. needs carries. That's it! Now run the damn ball, Herm!
LaDainian Tomlinson had a rough outing in Week 2, rushing the football just 10 times for 26 yards against the Broncos. The stud fell victim to what looks to be turf toe and he was in and out of the line-up on Sunday. Darren Sproles was used in Tomlinson's place and played very well - L.T. didn't carry the football in the fourth quarter. How is the runner? Will the injury linger? Well, that is to be determined, but you can bet that we will keep you posted just as soon as we know. For now, fantasy owners are left speculating, but if one likes to roll the dice a bit, now is the time to strike if you want to trade for L.T. on the cheap. Tomlinson has one of the easiest rushing schedules in the entire league, so we say test the trade waters now before he bounces back. Tomlinson is still our second ranked overall player looking forward.
Jonathan Stewart was a beast in Week 2 against the Bears, rushing the football 14 times for 77 yards and two TDs. Stewart replaced DeAngelo Williams for just about the entire second-half of Sunday's game and he looked extremely productive. It was Stewart, not DeAngelo, that the coaching staff counted on down the stretch. It was the rookie that punched in the winning score. This is all great news for those waiting for Stewart to rise to that starting role in Carolina. A few sources are already expecting Stewart to start Week 3, but even if he doesn't start, he will get enough carries to command RB2/RB3 consideration. The bad news? The Panthers face the Vikings in Week 3. The Vikes have the best rushing defense in the league, but strange things happen with tough match-ups and Stewart could find running room and at least some goal line carries. We love Stewart looking forward!
Ok, it's official! The Week 2 match-up between the Ravens and Texans has officially been postponed until November 9. Bad news for this week, but this could be a great thing for Willis McGahee owners. McGahee now gets yet another week to get his knee fully healthy. Now, there is a lot of speculation floating around news wires right now suggesting that the Ravens will start working toward using a RBBC in 2008. Is this true? I say no. Is there a chance? Sure, anything can happen in this league, but if you remember, Cam Cameron said that Jesse Chatman was pushing Ronnie Brown for the starting gig back in 2007. How did that turn out? I'll remind you. Brown was the best back in football before injuring his ACL at mid-season. Just know that Cameron is proven to crank out top 10RB numbers and he uses one rusher. The funny thing is, Cameron isn't screaming RBBC, news wires are. Cameron is just proud of his 229 rushing yards and 2TDs on Sunday - And he should be. That doesn't mean RBBC.
We have more Willis McGahee updates for you. Due to the damage caused by Hurricane Ike, it appears that the Ravens-Texans game, which was rescheduled for Monday due to the weather, will likely be postponed this week. There is a fresh report floating around out there suggesting that the NFL is doing everything they can to keep the game scheduled for this Monday night (possibly playing in New Orleans), but fantasy owners have to prepare for all Texans and Ravens players to sit it out this week. We will keep you posted on this. If rescheduled, we'd guess that this game will be replayed in Week 10, which would cause another schedule change with another team (possibly the Bengals in Week 8). Hopefully this gets worked out and the two battle it out this week after all, prepare for the worst line-up wise. Keep checking back with us.
Willis McGahee practiced in full on Friday and is now listed as probable for Week 1. Due to weather, the Texans-Ravens game has been moved to Monday night, which gives McGahee yet another day to get his knee healthy. If you doubt McGahee a bit this year, I don't blame you. Injuries have already taken out Tom Brady and Marques Colston, and some fantasy owners just can't take on anymore risk. However, I do warn all of you McGahee doubters out there... if healthy, Cam Cameron is going to make McGahee a top 5-10 fantasy running back at Week 16's end. Cameron's new offense just spit out 229 rushing yards and two rushing scores in Week 2, so that rushing attack is producing like expected. Cameron is proven! He produces elite rushing attacks every place he goes. All that Baltimore rushing game needs now is one stud to take on most of that production and it's clear that Cameron wants that stud to be McGahee. If you don't own him, trade for him on the cheap if you still can.
If you put Willis McGahee in your lineup last week, you got burned and it has likely left you weary about the upcoming weekend. What has now made things worse is that Hurricane Ike has moved the game from Sunday to Monday night, so any late decisions on his playing status will leave you with few options if you decide to wait on him. My advice is this: if you have Ray Rice, then put McGahee in your lineup and substitute Rice in on Monday if necessary and if your league allows it. Rice will put up good enough numbers against that Houston defense to warrant a start. If you have no out, then you should go with another player on Sunday and not take the chance McGahee gets you another zero. My gut tells me he will start, but the risk is too great until we see him finally get some game action.
There are lots of decisions to be made this week, but leaving Frank Gore out of your lineup should not be one of them. Last week vs. the Cardinals, Gore had 18 touches which resulted in 151 total yards and a 41-yard touchdown run – awesome results. There should be no doubt in your mind that Gore is the centerpiece of this Mike Martz led offense and the new OC is planning more of the same this week: "Frank has to touch the ball. He's got to be one of the very, very elite in this league. We know we have to feature him and find ways of getting him the ball." Those words have to be music to your ears if you are a Gore owner, and I expect similar numbers this week against the Seahawks.
Holmes had a disappointing Week 1 outing against the Texans, catching just two passes for 19 yards. If you own the third-year breakout wide receiver, have faith! Holmes ranked second in the league last year in yards per catch (18.1) and was a YPC league-leader once again this past preseason. Consider Week 1 a 2008 anomaly for a lot of players - Holmes being one of them. The Steelers face the Browns in Week 2 and this battle could be a real shootout. I'm expecting big games from both passing attacks and I expect a couple deep touchdown strikes. If you can trade for Holmes right now at the cost of a fantasy WR3, go get him! Holmes could very well finish inside the top 10-12 for fantasy wide receivers at season's end.
You have probably heard by now that Marques Colston will miss roughly 4-6 weeks due to a torn ligament in his thumb. Between Colston and Tom Brady (ACL), fantasy owners are probably starting to feel like last year's injury curse is carrying over into this fantasy season. Well you can't control that, but what you can control is how you react. If you're a Colston owner, you have two options. First, you can try trading Colston for a Dwayne Bowe type, which would be a solid move considering how underrated Bowe is right now. Try for Santonio Holmes! Your second option is to get creative and let a package deal get you more value than you deserve. Example, in one league I just traded Tony Romo and Santana Moss for Carson Palmer and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. This gets me out of trouble until Colston returns. Package deals can often do that, get you out of injury trouble, but you have to target underrated guys you believe in. Palmer/Housh is a perfect combo to attack.
Adrian Peterson faces the Colts in Week 2, so get ready for a HUGE performance! How huge? Well, that Indy defense gave up a lot of big runs in the preseason, and the Bears just lambasted them in Week 1 rushing for 183 yards and 2TDs. Rookie Matt Forte alone ran for 123 and 1TD. I think it's safe to say that the league's most explosive runner is going to go off in Week 2! Our Weekly Player Projections are generated by four of us here at Fantasy Football Xtreme, but I personally plugged in the Vikings/Colts projections... While it's a bit bold, I have Adrian Peterson rushing for 145 yards and 3TDs in this one. Too bold? Maybe, but he will have that three-touchdown performance at some point this season - This is the right match-up for such an outing.
Is rookie Eddie Royal for real? Well, fantasy owners shouldn't expect the rookie to continue cranking out 100-yard outings on a regular basis, but I think this kid has some serious upside looking forward. Brandon Marshall is the #1 in Denver, so know that, but Royal has a real future in this league, and Jay Cutler seems to love the guy. The have a monster rapport! It may not be smart to count on it, but Royal could end up being a sneaky fantasy WR3 this season. While I'm still a bit cautiously optimistic about his 2008 value in fantasy line-ups, he should absolutely NOT be available in any dynasty leagues of any size. If he is available, go get him right this second!
Like Eddie Royal, rookie DeSean Jackson is turning heads. Small doesn't necessarily mean bust anymore in the NFL, as speedy guys like Royal and Jackson have an advantage coming right off the line of scrimmage. These two rookies are running short routes untouched, and when defenses do decide to close in on these quick little receivers, they change directions in a snap and head down field for big gains. Jackson caught 6 passes for 106 on Sunday against the Rams. The rookie is in a great situation in Philly this season, as Westbrook is going to be the focal point for defenses almost every single week. With McNabb looking as sharp as ever, and this team ready to win, Jackson could surprise in 2008 and finish with some shocking numbers for a rook.
Cam Cameron didn't deliver in Week 1, right? Wrong. Things didn't go as planned for Willis McGahee and Ray Rice owners in Week 1 against the Bengals, but Cam Cameron's rushing attack exploded as expected. If you're scratching your head right now, realize that the Ravens ran the football 46 times for 229 yards and 2TDs on Sunday. The team averaged over five yards per carry, but it was just spread out between Rice, LeRon McClain, Joe Flacco and Mark Clayton. Word on the wire is that the Ravens coaching staff expects Willis McGahee to be back in action in Week 2 against the Texans, and what a great match-up it is. Willie Parker just rumbled for 138 yards and 3TDs against that awful Texans rushing defense, so McGahee and that Cam Cameron ground attack should rack-up the stats this coming week. Obviously monitor McGahee's progress this week in practice, but it sounds like the stud will be more than ready to take on a full load in Week 2.
Handcuff alert: If you're a Marion Barber owner this year, you better have Felix Jones on your bench. If you don't, go get him now while his value is still low. If you thought he was just an outside runner, go watch his touchdown run on Sunday against the Browns. If Barber goes down, the Cowboys' offense won't miss a beat this year. Barber is a top 10RB this year no question, but the combo of the two guarantees you top 8-10RB production no matter what. Talk about security.
Kurt Warner is getting a lot of attention this week as fantasy owners try to determine whether to start him or not. While I agree the combination of Warner and back-up Matt Leinart has the potential to produce top 10 QB numbers this season, it is still a risky proposition to start either on a given weekend. Coach Ken Whisenhunt has proven time and again that he has no problem pulling either guy if they are ineffective in a game, and with the Cardinals that is a good possibility on any given weekend. On top of that, Warner is a 37 year old QB – making him more injury prone than most. I still consider Warner a good start if you have no better options, but more than likely he was drafted as a back-up on your team and that is how I think you should play it - go with the guy you drafted as your starter.
If you're looking for a deep sleeper at the running back position in 2008, take a long look at rookie Tim Hightower. This rookie is already looking like the Cardinals' goal line option this season, and if Edgerrin James suffers injury, Hightower should step in right away and produce extremely solid flex-type numbers. This guy still has a lot to prove, and he is by no means a lock to replace Edge in AZ. However, the upside, and situation, appear to be present... the youngster should NOT be available in dynasty leagues. If he is, stop reading this and go grab him now! Redraft league owners, in larger leagues, should also consider scooping up Hightower before it's too late. Not sure who you should drop for the Cardinals' runner? Get on our FFX Forums and get some add/drop advice!
Brandon Jacobs looked fantastic on Thursday night against the Redskins. He had 116 rushing yards on 21 carries (5.5 yards per carry). He is a machine. The guy is 6-4, 264 pounds, so don't expect him to play 16 games, but if you have Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw, you're covered. The combo of rushers could very well produce top 12ish RB numbers at Week 16's end. It's tough to say what you will have to give up to get Jacobs after a game like that last night, but if you have a risky runner like Selvin Young, I say take a stab! Just be sure you scoop up both Ward and Bradshaw.
Less than five minutes into the season opener, Plaxico Burress already has three catches for 60 yards... and he looks like an absolute beast. Getting off to a hot start is one thing, but keep in mind that Burress was banged up all last season and for the first time he is healthy - Fantasy worlds may have forgotten how good Burress is when healthy. We're already giving this guy a couple-spot bump on our rankings looking foward. Expect the Giant to finish as a low-end WR1 in 2008. If you got him at the cost of a low-end WR2, nice work!
Ray Rice is getting a lot of press right now due to the injury to Willis McGahee, and that is causing him to be severely overvalued. I like his prospects as much as anyone, but to consider starting him over established running backs like Larry Johnson or Reggie Bush is just not smart. Even assuming McGahee is out, I would play him as my RB3 at most and only then if I had no better options for my flex spot. Don’t get me wrong, he could have a great game, but more likely he doesn’t and you’re stuck with a guy in your lineup who should have never been there. Yes, if you are really in need of someone and we find out McGahee will not play, that would be the time to stick him in as a starter. Otherwise, let Rice get at least one real NFL game under his belt before you jump in and allow him to decide the fate of your fantasy team.
If you own running back Ryan Grant entering Week 1, let me first say that I'm sorry. Grant's Week 1 match-up is against the league's toughest rushing defense. Minnesota surrendered just 74.1 yards per game last season, and on the year, the unit gave up just seven rushing touchdowns. Monday night could be a long one for Ryan Grant. Honestly, I think Monday night will be a long night for that entire Packers team, but Grant specifically is going to have a rough outing. The good part? Well, even though I think Grant took a huge hit when Brett Favre was shipped to the Jets, he is still a solid RB2 in 2008, and you may just be able to get him a touch cheaper after Monday night's contest. Not every fantasy owner is going to trade a runner after one bad game, but it's worth a shot, especially since some owners were skeptical when initially taking him. Keep this in mind after Week 1 is in the rear view.
What do fantasy owners do with Willis McGahee? Do you trade him? Do you keep him? The answer is simple. Go get Ray Rice and enjoy that top 8RB production. Our forums are loaded with McGahee questions and concerns, and my advice is always the same on this topic. Nothing is guaranteed in this game, and I especially can't make guarantees about how many games McGahee will play in 2008... but one thing is for sure... Cam Cameron knows how to take a good running back and make him a top five fantasy back. I feel extremely confident in suggesting that if you own both McGahee and Rice in '08, you will have yourself a RB1. Not a solid runner, I'm talking straight up first-round material. Let others doubt McGahee this season, and if you own him, you won't get enough even if you tried shopping him. The answer is simple for you McGahee owners - The answer is Ray Rice.
What do you call a player, with 4.24 speed, who backs up a runner that is always banged up and out of shape? Gold. Oh wait, Johnson isn't even a back-up anymore. That's right, Titans head coach Jeff Fisher said on Tuesday that he envisions a 50/50 split, or at least a 60/40, out of both rushers in 2008. He also added that he will have a better grip on the carry distribution between the two runners as his team approaches mid-season. Well, I firmly believe that it's only a matter of time before Fisher just shoves Johnson out there to make plays. I am not a LenDale believer, and I probably never will be, but now I have a very good reason to campaign against White. Johnson is a straight up playmaker, while White has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry so far in his two seasons in the NFL. Again, it's only a matter of time before Johnson gets the majority of the carries over in Tennessee. The best part? Johnson's current ADP is right around the 7th- to 8th-round range. That's value!
This guy is our super-sleeper quarterback heading into this upcoming fantasy season. O'Sullivan doesn't have much of a resume, and he is certainly no lock to succeed at the NFL level, but we like what we see so far. Last Thursday night against the Bears, O'Sullivan completed 7-of-8 passes for 126 yards and one touchdown. On Friday of last week, 49ers coach Mike Nolan announced that O'Sullivan will open the season as the team's starting quarterback. We're not saying to grab this guy in smaller leagues (although it could head in that direction), but if you roll in a deep dynasty league and have a spot to burn, keep in mind that breakout guys emerge every single year. We have already grabbed him in two leagues so far, one deep dynasty league and we even grabbed him in one redraft league - He could be the real deal.
Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt has still not publically decided on his starting QB for this season, leaving fantasy owners in a bind over how to approach the situation. On one hand, we know that the potential for quality numbers is there for whomever gets the starting job; but on the other hand there is absolutely no stability in having either Matt Leinart or Kurt Warner on your roster even if the coach does name a starter. This was proven throughout last few seasons when they were continually swapped back and forth – sometimes in the same game! Bottom line is regardless of which one you think will start, the strategy here is to grab both of them if you have the stomach for it. I believe the combination of the two will put up top 10 numbers and prove to be an exceptional value since they can individually be had for relatively little investment.
Rookie Steve Slaton is my pick to take hold of that starting job in Houston and run with it. With whispers around the Texans camp that Chris Brown won’t make the final cut, and Ahman Green already injured (after a single game snap mind you), Slaton getting the gig is not really a long shot anymore. He seems to have adjusted well to the one-cut blocking scheme being implemented (think Denver), and has been the Texans best RB in the preseason, averaging 4.1 per carry. Chris Taylor is also in the mix, so we might be looking at a committee early on, but over the long haul I think Slaton will be the guy to own. Slaton is going at bargain-basement price right now, so you won’t have to spend a lot to nab him. Just keep him in mind later in your draft, and definitely pick him up if you are still riding the Brown or Green bandwagon.
With recent news revealing that WR Chad Johnson has a partially torn labrum, Chris Henry instantly becomes waiver wire gold. Keep in mind that the guy is suspended for the first four games of the season, but the talented receiver is capable of top 15WR numbers when on the field. Now, this Player Spotlight isn't meant to frighten fantasy owners into trading Chad Johnson on the cheap, as Chad is going to play through the injury, and might do so successfully, but this is one of those rare WR handcuffs that can win a league. If you haven't yet drafted, obviously drop Chad Johnson on your rankings due to today's news, but be sure that you understand that he could still have a stellar 2008 if all goes well. Go get Chris Henry in all leagues.
It's common knowledge that wide receivers tend to breakout in their third NFL season... well, Santonio Holmes is entering his third NFL season and he has been at the top of our breakout list since the end of last year. Holmes' sophomore campaign gave fantasy worlds a preview of what is to come, as the guy showed flashes of brilliance all season long. In just 13 games, Holmes caught 52 balls for 942 yards (18.1 avg.) and caught 8TDs… on a full season, that would have translated into 64 receptions, 1,159 yards and 9.8TDs. Holmes is on the verge of becoming a low-end WR1 - If Holmes manages to stay healthy in '08, fantasy owners can expect 70-80 receptions, 1,200+ yards and 12+ touchdowns. Holmes should lead the league in yards per catch and will likely be one of this year's biggest fantasy steals in retrospect.
If you're looking for a super-sleeper running back this season, Pierre Thomas is your guy. Thomas is extremely talented and capable of carrying the load in New Orleans if the team should call his number. The best thing about Thomas is that even if injury doesn't strike that Saints offense, the team could still give Thomas a healthy dose of carries in 2008. Reggie Bush had his best season back in 2006 (as a rookie), when he pulled in 88 balls. In that same season, Deuce McAllister rushed the football 244 times for 1,057 yards and 10TDs. That was a phenomenal season for a runner that was considered the RB2 on the roster. Expect the Saints to get back to that 1-2 punch at the running back position, but don't be surprised if it is Thomas that takes on that role, not Deuce. It could take a few weeks before Thomas gets those consistent touches... we can't know that for sure, but what we do know is that Thomas has what it takes.
Until recently, the thought of Peyton Manning missing playing time wasn’t crossing anyone’s mind, but it should be now. Very little has come out from the Colts regarding Manning’s progress after his knee surgery – and just yesterday more rumors were swirling indicating a second surgery took place. Yikes. The Colts aren’t confirming or denying, so we are left to our own gut feelings. Manning is a warrior, so I’m confident that he will be back to form at some point early this season, but when that happens is the question. You should still consider him top 3 at his position until you hear concrete news otherwise, but I wouldn’t go and spend anything higher than a 3rd round pick on him right now. That’s the best way to mitigate the risk, especially when there are others like Brees, Romo and Palmer who are more than capable of leading your fantasy team with a later pick.
Frank Gore looked fantastic on Thursday night and is ready for a monster season in 2008. Gore is the centerpiece of that offense in San Fran, and Martz is going to use Gore like he used Faulk back in St. Louis. We're not going to compare Gore to the great Marshall Faulk, but if anyone can get close to duplicating Marshall Faulk stats back in the day, it's Gore. He has some serious speed and power this year and he hit the hole fast on Thursday night - Only injury can stand in his way this season. I currently have Gore putting up 1300/500 and 9, but I'm really starting to think Gore can get double-digit touchdowns this upcoming fantasy season. Draft Gore in the top 5 in all leagues and formats looking forward.
With Willis McGahee recently having knee surgery, and with Ray Rice looking impressive, should fantasy owners avoid McGahee in 2008? The answer is no. But the key to owning McGahee this year is handcuffing him. Rice is a must-have for McGahee owners this upcoming season, because Cam Cameron's Baltimore rushing attack is going to crank out top 10RB-type numbers... it doesn't matter who is in the line-up, especially when both backs are so talented. Now McGahee goes from good to great under Cameron, and Rice goes from effective to good... so clearly it's better if McGahee is in that line-up, but under Cameron, that rushing attack will produce! Think of it as drafting that running back slot, not just one runner. Cameron has proven his offensive genius with LaDainian Tomlinson, and most recently Ronnie Brown. Believe in Cameron and lock down the Ravens RB combo - It will score you top 10RB numbers in '08.
If his last two preseason games are any indication, Santonio Holmes seems primed to emerge as the next elite wide receiver in the NFL. In those games, Holmes caught 3 passes for 72 yards and two touchdowns in limited action. If you’ve watched either of the games, it’s apparent he’s developed quite a rapport with Roethlisberger and he’s now his go-to guy in the red zone. And, if you subscribe to the “third year” wide receiver theory, you’ll realize that Holmes has a chance to prove it’s reality just like Terrell Owens, Steve Smith, and more recently, Braylon Edwards all did in their third year. Holmes is no longer flying under the radar, so you’ll need bump him up your board if you want to land him. I think he’s an excellent choice after the big name WRs are off the board, and I expect him to perform as a borderline WR1 when all is said and done.
Calvin Johnson has looked fantastic so far in the preseason. In last night's contest, the receiver caught three passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. In his first two preseason games, CJ2 has racked up seven total receptions for 154 yards and two scores. I admit that I have been cautiously optimistic about Calvin this preseason, mainly because that Lions offense concerns me, but the rising star looks healthy and ready to dominate. I have recently had him ranked right around Brandon Marshall on my personal set of rankings, which was below both Roy Williams and Anquan Boldin. Well, it's time to move the guy up. While I'm not ready to slot him above T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or even Torry Holt, Calvin is now inside my top 14WRs heading into '08. If you look at our staff average set of dynasty rankings, CJ2 is now sitting at the ten spot.
Are you starting to believe us yet about this kid? On Saturday against the Colts, the runner had just four carries for 113 yards, with long runs of 63 and 52. Turner has ownership of some of the longest runs in Chargers franchise history (83, 74 and 73)... given that the speedster is still a fourth- to fifth-round pick in 2008 drafts, we continue to scratch our heads here at FFX. Last night's 113-yard performance, on just the four carries, could wake some people up, but even if Turner's ADP rises, to let's say #24 overall, that is still a bargain because "The Burner" has top 10 written all over him. Turner, like we predict in our most recent Fantasy Football TV Online segment, should be the steal of 2008 fantasy football drafts. Ok, so in review... 83, 74, 73, and recently 63 and 52... any questions?
Matt Forte is a talented running back, but he isn't in the most ideal situation in 2008. While I'm a bit higher on the Bears this year than most, I'm starting to get the feeling that the rookie is going to see way too many eight-man fronts early on in '08. Until the Bears finally get comfortable in the passing department, which could take half a season, or more, Forte could be a frustrating rusher to own. The talent is there, but the blocking is not. Now, part of that is due to defenses crowding the box, so the run blocking will improve if the passing attack steps up. But the question is, will the passing attack ever step up? Dynasty league owners should get excited about Forte's future, but those of you in redraft leagues... keep the expectations low, at least early on. Same goes for Jonathan Stewart, as DeAngelo Williams isn't going to go away without a fight.
If you are someone who bypasses the QB position early, Donovan McNabb might be a guy to target later in your draft. When most of us think of McNabb, we think injuries - but to stop your assessment there would be a mistake. Fact is, he produces when he is on the field, and with only 14 starts last season his owners netted 3,324 yards and 19 TDs. So, if you play your QB hand correctly, you can take advantage of that production by grabbing another good QB2 with him - think Shaub, Rivers or Manning. Any of them are more than capable of taking over your fantasy team if McNabb exits stage left. The upside is McNabb plays almost the entire season for you, in which case you are looking at top-end QB1 numbers for a guy you grabbed in round seven (or later).
There is growing concern that Willis McGahee could miss the team's opener due to his knee scope, but much of that is speculation. It is possible, but the coaching staff still appears confident that he can be ready. Look, there is always risk in drafting injured players, as we just posted in the latest McGahee news update, but there is often value in these situations as well. Everyone will be doubting McGahee, especially as a high second-round pick - He could easily fall as far as the late second-round, if not further. Grabbing Rice almost eliminates the risk with this situation, so reach two or three extra rounds for Rice (well before his ADP) if you have to. The combo of McGahee/Rice, under Cam Cameron, has the ability to spit out top eight fantasy numbers. Again, realize the risks, but this situation can be taken advantage of if you draft smart and secure the entire situation up. Not every handcuff is capable, and you can't expect that... but a Cam Cameron running back will produce.
With the recent news of Bobby Engram’s injury, Nate Burleson has suddenly emerged as the Seahawks #1 wide receiver. Before you go running off to make a trade for him, consider that Burleson had that role once before and did not fare very well. In that 2005 season, he hauled in a whopping 30 catches as the Vikings “number one” receiver – this following a tremendous sophomore campaign of 68/1006/9 playing opposite Randy Moss. Does that mean he fails again if given that chance? Maybe not, but it sure feels like he does his best work when he operates across from a true #1 who can draw the double teams away from his side of the field. Right now, I still see him as a guy to grab as a WR3 with some definite upside, especially if Branch comes back early, but taking him any higher might be expecting too much.
With the news that Willis McGahee is having arthroscopic surgery on his left knee, many fantasy owners are going to avoid him in early 2008 fantasy drafts. I say take full advantage of this, because under Cam Cameron, that Ravens' rushing attack is going to be insane this season. Grabbing Ray Rice is key, though... there is no question about that, but just be sure to grab the rookie a round or two ahead of his ADP and you should have no problem securing up a RB1 slot at the cost of a RB2. That's how you win a league! Just keep in mind that Rice's ADP might climb a bit in the coming weeks, so know his "updated" value before you head into your draft. McGahee/Rice should be a top 8RB knowing Cameron, who commanded LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego for so many years, and Ronnie Brown last year in Miami. Believe in Cameron, not necessarily McGahee - McGahee was a solid name before Cameron, but Cameron will make that rushing attack great in '08!
After watching the Falcons-Jaguars game this weekend, I'm more convinced than ever that Michael Turner is the real deal. He looked very good on his five carries, rushing for 22 yards (4.4 average) and proved himself between the tackles. He also showed patience waiting for his rushing lanes to open up. There is a reason that Turner has some of the longest runs in Chargers' history (83, 74 and 73.. as a back-up)... he knows how to find a crease and his compact build makes him extremely tough to tackle. He is built, and runs, a lot like Maurice Jones-Drew - Both speedsters are going to turn heads in 2008 and both have top 10RB upside. The only difference is that Turner can be had in the third- to fourth-round. Steal!
Jones-Drew looked fantastic on Saturday night against the Falcons. He finished the game with 23 yards on five carries and had a long run of 11 yards. Stats don't matter all that much when you're talking about game one in the preseason, it is all about how a player looks and moves down the field. Well, if you didn't watch Jones-Drew this past weekend, let me tell you... he looked as good as ever. If Jones-Drew gets his 220+ carries this season, and I think that he will, fantasy owners are going to watch the Jaguars rusher prove to be one of the biggest steals in 2008 drafts. "The Human Bowling Ball" has top 10 overall upside, yet he will only cost you a top 15-20 overall pick on draft day. When considering average draft position (ADP), only Michael Turner, currently a third- to fourth-round draft selection, has greater running back upside in 2008.
Many are still holding out hope that Laurence Maroney will live up to his potential and become the RB1 we’ve all been waiting for. A first-round pick of the Patriots a couple of years ago, Maroney instantly became a feature back for one of the best teams in football. That hasn’t translated into fantasy gold though, as a mix of injuries and poor play have created inconsistent production. Part of the disappointment stems from his ADP last year, and he never did perform up to that first-round draft status. Fantasy owners don’t easily forget, and this season he is being nabbed outside the third round as a borderline RB2 or RB3. While I am not high on his prospects this season, especially with LaMont Jordon on board, I do think he is worth drafting in the fourth-round as your RB3. At that price, your team can survive if he disappoints again.
Santonio Holmes, a third-year WR breakout candidate, is in the perfect situation in Pittsburgh. Roethy is a stud on the rise and that rushing attack is going to keep defenses honest in '08 (and the passing attack will help the run - the offense is just that balanced). Also, don't listen to those who say that the Steelers' line will struggle this year - They should turn heads. So, what kind of numbers do I expect out of Holmes in '08? Well, last year he had 52 receptions (18.1 avg.), 942 yards and 8TDs, but he missed three games. If we extend those numbers across 16 games, Holmes would have posted 64 catches, 1,149 yards and 9.8 scores. Those numbers are very reachable in my opinion, and I honestly think the receiver can pull in 11-12 scores. Of receivers who caught over 20 balls last year, Holmes was No. 1 in the league in yards per catch (18.1). On Friday night, Holmes pulled in his first preseason reception and took it 19 yards into the end zone. Does anyone see a pattern here?
Ask anyone around Cardinals camp and they’ll tell you Larry Fitzgerald has been working hard this summer to refine and improve his game. Scary thought when you consider he is only 24 years old and has already gone over the 100 catch mark twice in his first four seasons. From a fantasy perspective, Fitzgerald has been a consistent producer over that short span, averaging 82 receptions, 1136 yards, and 11 TDs per season while playing on a mostly bad Cardinals team. There is no question that Fitzgerald is one of the top receivers in the game, and when I say the sky is the limit for him, it’s not a cliché. As for 2008, there may be some growing pains with Leinart at the helm, but the Cardinals are an improving team offensively and I only see more of the same from Fitz – 100 grabs, 1500 yards and 12 TDs. Bank on it.
Sleeper Alert! Fantasy owners should always be careful not to put too much faith in preseason play, especially from NFL unknowns, but David Clowney, a second-year wide receiver out of Virginia Tech, just pulled in four catches for 163 yards and 2TDs in Thursday night's preseason game against the Browns. The touchdown receptions were for 70 yards and 71 yards. I know, it's the preseason, and the odds are against this guy starting as the Jets' third receiver in '08, but many said the same thing about Marques Colston when he started turning heads for the first time... it happens, some guys emerge from out of nowhere and we wouldn't be doing our job if we didn't point out everything! Plus, Clowney has reportedly impressed the Jets coaching staff in camp as of late. Don't go dropping solid talent in your larger leagues just yet, but with Brett Favre in New York this season, this guy should definitely be monitored! Update (8-19-08): Clowney suffers broken collarbone - out indefinitely.
Where does one rank Thomas Jones now that Brett Favre is in New York? Well, last year Jones ran for 1,119 yards, pulled in 217 yards through the air and had two total touchdowns. Jones averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last season - With Favre now under center for the Jets, Jones will likely average more than 4.0 yards per carry and will be in scoring range like never before. It will be interesting to see if Jones' ADP rises too high, after this monster Jets-Packers trade, but the back just might be capable of 1,200 yards rushing, 250+ yards receiving and 7-8 total scores... those are the numbers of a top 10-12 running back. No matter how much you like Thomas Jones this year, be sure to handcuff him to Jesse Chatman and Leon Washington - It will be well worth the investment. Also, don't forget that the Jets went and got FB Tony Richardson this off-season. Even at 36, Richardson could be a huge addition for the Jets and their rushing attack this year.
Jets rookie TE Dustin Keller has been turning heads as of late, but with Favre now in a Jets uniform, it's time to start giving Keller a huge look, especially in dynasty leagues. Keep in mind that rookies often get hurt, fall behind on learning the offense, things happen... but Keller's future looks bright and his 2008 looks very promising. The tight end was outstanding in the team's Saturday scrimmage, as he pulled in 79 yards and a touchdown on four catches. Again, temper expectations in 2008, but also invest if the price is right. Favre can speed along a player's fantasy growth faster than most quarterbacks, and he loves to throw to his TE. Dynasty league owners... if Keller is available in your league, you better grab him ASAP!
With Brett Favre now throwing the rock to Jerricho Cotchery, it is very possible that Cotchery becomes a top 12 fantasy wide receiver this year. Cotchery caught 82 balls last season for 1,130 yards and 2TDs... and that was with some inconsistent quarterback play. With the way Favre locks onto a receiver every single year, and with Cotchery improving every game, the sky is the limit in '08. Cotchery probably won't catch too many more passes this year (82 last year), and his 1,130 yards sounds about right as well... those numbers are fantastic already, but with Favre now under center in New York, Cotchery's TD totals could go from two to eight - That would make the guy a top 12 WR this upcoming seaosn. Those that already own Cotchery are the true winners here, as that is where the true value is, while redraft leaguers will now have to grab Cotchery with a respectable draft pick.
Kellen Winslow is in for a big season and poised to assume the role of the #1 tight end in fantasy football. After starting his career with a total of 5 catches in his first two seasons, Winslow has finally lived up to his first-round potential by putting up back-to-back 80+ catch seasons. The Browns offense doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon, and with Gates’ foot injury a major concern, it has opened up Winslow as a contender for that top spot. Yes, Witten is a contender too, but I don’t believe we have yet seen Winslow’s best. He is effectively entering his third full season, which is normally the year stud pass catchers put it all together. With his injuries well behind him now, I think a season of 95/1300/10 season is well within reach and something you’d expect from the son of a Hall of Fame TE.
TBOBlogs has just posted a report that claims that Brett Favre will be in a Buccaneers uniform in less than 24 hours. Now, we warn you that this still needs to be confirmed, and while the report suggests that the odds of this deal falling through are "remote," anything can happen... just keep that in mind. So, if this report is on the money, and Favre heads to Tampa, what does this mean for all the fantasy players involved? Well, Grant definitely remains outside of the first-round, whereas Favre under center in Green Bay would have lifted him back into our top 8-12 overall heading into '08. Now Earnest Graham gets the bump. Graham is 28, so we still have our concerns about his dynasty value, but if Favre is commanding the Bucs this upcoming season, Graham is going to play like a very solid RB2. Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard would also get a nice little bump as well. UPDATE: Favre willing to play for Jets and Bucs, according to SportingNews.
Last year, Marques Colston proved he was not a one year wonder - this year he will take it a step further and prove he is a top three fantasy WR. Consider this: even with the slow start by the Saints last season, Colston was rock steady and ended his season with 98/1202/11 - in nine of those games he had seven or more catches! Add those numbers to his 70/1038/8 from his rookie season and you have yourself the best reception total for any WR in their first two seasons. Yes, even better than Randy Moss. The fantasy world is now starting to come around and realize that this kid can produce like one of the big boys, but luckily for us they still aren’t fully on board yet. His current ADP ranks him as the #7 WR, which means in all likelihood you can get land his production after drafting both your starting RBs.
What if I told you that Joseph Addai was not inside my top five overall? Addai was a monster in the touchdown department in 2007, scoring 15 times... but the Colts runner had just 1,072 rushing yards last year... Addai had more rushing yards as a rookie, when he shared carries with Dominic Rhodes. Let's keep this in perspective... Addai got banged up in Week 16 and received just 10 total carries in the final two regular season games... but even if you look back at Addai's six contests before that, he had no 100-yard games and had just one game with over 70 rushing yards. He also averaged just 3.3 yards per carry in the entire second-half of the 2007 season. Look, I'm not saying Addai isn't worthy of a top 6-7 overall pick, because he is... but my top five entering '08 is currently Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Jackson and Frank Gore. Addai is right there at my number six spot, though.
It appears my Adrian Peterson projections are causing quite the controversy on our FFX forums, as I project the stud to rush for 20TDs in 2008. Oh, it gets better, as I also project Pete to pull in three touchdowns through the air. "All Day" is an absolute stud, and I find it almost comical that some still continue to doubt the guy's place in the top two overall. Is he an injury risk? Yea, but no more than any other top 5RB this year (but maybe Addai). LaDainian Tomlinson is aging, Brian Westbrook has a permanent place on the Eagles' injury report, Steven Jackson is almost guaranteed to miss some action given his abusive rushing style, and both Frank Gore and Willis McGahee have huge red flags attached to their names each and every year. You just can't use the injury-risk argument with me in 2008. Plus, all one has to do is swoop in and snag Chester Taylor a round or two before his ADP - Peterson is money as a top two overall pick in '08! Money!
Ryan Grant just inked a four-year deal with the Packers, which keeps him worthy of a top 15 overall pick in all leagues and formats. Grant owners, and future Grant owners, should still handcuff Grant to Brandon Jackson. For some reason we still have a funny feeling about this situation, and without Favre in Green Bay in 2008, we just aren't sure how that offense is going to perform. Still, Grant has some solid RB2 value and as long as you have both Green Bay rushers on your fantasy roster, you should be guaranteed top 12-15RB numbers in 2008... maybe more, it just all depends on that offense. We feel like we have to throw this out there in case it happens, but if Favre returns for some reason and starts for the Pack in '08, Grant will instantly become a first-rounder in our eyes. Keep that in mind just in case the Packers start thinking clearly.
Could Ryan Grant's holdout cost him his job? That's a tough question to answer, as there are so many variables. There is the length of the holdout to consider, how well Brandon Jackson plays in the coming weeks - These are just some of the variables in play here. Most of the time these running back holdouts never last and the player holding out is eventually back in the line-up as if nothing ever happened. Well, this situation may be a bit different. Keep in mind that Brandon Jackson was drafted last year as if he might be the future of the team's rushing attack. He has a tremendous amount of talent and the team knows this. Sure, he was a bust as a rookie, but he is turning heads now and Grant is really owed nothing. I'm not saying that fantasy owners should count on Jackson stealing the starting job, but I am saying that fantasy owners might not want to count on Grant holding onto it.
Many fantasy owners are forgetting that LaMont Jordan was off to a hot start last year. In fact, he was one of the better fantasy backs in the game through Week 5, averaging 128 total yards per game. Of course his back issues are a huge concern, but because LaMont can be grabbed in the later rounds of your August draft, there is almost zero risk rostering the guy in '08. Pass on Laurence Maroney this year (unless he falls to a ridiculous draft slot) and smoothly stash Jordan on your bench until his number is called - I truly believe that he will start some games in '08.
Tom Brady is the consensus #1 at the QB position, but drafting him may not allow you to win your league. It may sound odd, but with his current cost in the late first/early second, you’ll be hard pressed to get enough quality players at the RB and WR positions to be truly competitive. No one doubts Brady’s ability to put up big numbers, but when you can get almost similar production from a player like Brees or Palmer in the fourth round while stacking your team at other positions early, it’s not a sound strategy. Remember that Brady’s value last year was not in the 50 TDs he threw, but where he was able to be drafted – in the third/fourth round. Play that same strategy this year and build a winner by grabbing your RBs and WRs early and then striking for a value QB.
Chris Johnson is turning heads in Titans camp, and not just because he is running by people with his blazing 4.24/40 speed, he is also impressing with his ability to pick up new plays and schemes and immediately put them into action on the field. Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher said as much in a recent interview and seems absolutely smitten with the runner. Johnson is on the smallish side at 5-11 and 200 pounds, but he’s the perfect complement to the deliberate, pounding style of Lendale White – a system that has worked beautifully in New Orleans with McAllister and Bush. Consider him a good late round pickup in seasonal drafts to solidify your bench, and in pure dynasty rookie drafts he should be in the top 10 players on your board - higher if your league uses PPR scoring.
With RB Kevin Jones (ACL) possibly looking at starting the '08 season on the PUP list, Matt Forte's 2008 potential has never looked better. Jones should be considered merely a handcuff at this point - Nothing more. Even if Jones doesn't start the season on the PUP list, it might take half a season for him to even be ready for 8-10 carries a game. The starting running back job in Chicago is Forte's to lose, and I don't think that he is going to let the job slip out of his Kung-Fu grip. The Tulane product has great size (6-1, 224 pounds) and his aggressive size and power fit perfectly into that Chicago offense. Granted, the Bears have some offensive line issues, and the team is desperate for answers at the quarterback position... but I still see the rookie having an extremely productive rookie season.
Drew Brees' value just went up… again. With the recent acquisition of TE Jeremy Shockey by the Saints, Brees now has another legitimate target to spread the ball around to - on an offense already spilling over with talent. Back in my May spotlight on Brees, I pointed out his phenomenal numbers over the last two seasons, averaging 4400 yards and 28 TDs, and noted the tremendous value he was based on his ADP at the time. With the addition of Shockey, he is now climbing up everyone’s board and is no longer quite the steal he was - but still undervalued in my opinion. I now believe that 4700 yards and 35 TDs is easily within reach and that puts him in elite company ahead of all QBs except Brady. Landing him as the 3rd QB off the board (or later) is still very good value.
Bowe had a great rookie season for the Chiefs last year, catching 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 TDs. To put that in perspective, there have only been a handful of rookie wideouts to amass those kinds of numbers – one of which was a guy named Marques Colston in 2006. While I realize the situations are not identical, the same doubts were heard last season about Colston and his ability to repeat his numbers - all he did was go out and blow them away last year. I’m not saying I expect a 90+ catch season out of Bowe, but I think he will far outperform his current ADP which is in the 20-25 range. Some will have their doubts based on the Chiefs current QB situation, but I expect him to perform closer to a WR1 than a WR3 and would not hesitate to reach a bit to make sure I land him.
Ward is 32, but route runners like Terrell Owens and Joey Galloway are proving that a receiver can play in their prime through 34 years of age. Ward is going to have tremendous draft value this August, as he will be treated like a WR3/4, but capable of producing like a WR2 when all is said and done. Ward hasn't had a 1,000-yard season since 2004, but that Pittsburgh offense is going to be tough to stop in 2008, something Ward will benefit from, especially near the goal line. If forced to guess Ward's '08 stats through Week 16, I'd say 75 receptions for roughly 900 yards with roughly 7-8 scores sounds about right. That's roughly a top 20-25 fantasy wide receiver!
Brett is back in the news, deciding once again to flip-flop on his status for the upcoming season. By all accounts it appears he will play again, but not necessarily for the Packers, and in trying to estimate his value there are a few things to consider. First, he had a remarkable season last year throwing for 4,100 yards and 28 TDs – those numbers put him 4th on the yardage list between Romo and Palmer. Second, if he doesn’t play for Green Bay, he will likely choose another playoff caliber team – no way Brett plays for a team with no shot at the post-season at his age. Lastly, Brett will be playing with something to prove, and all of this means another top 10 season for the gunslinger. At the moment, he can be had in the last rounds of drafts or off the waiver wire, but that is about to change very quickly.
Quietly, Zach Miller had a very good season for Oakland in his rookie season, catching 44 passes for 444 yards and 3 TDs. If you break those numbers down even further, you’ll find that in his last eight games of the season he snagged 27 of those 44 passes. Now fast forward to this season and consider that Oakland will turn to their young QB JaMarcus Russell - and employ a game plan that will call for a lot of check downs to the backs and tight ends as he learns on the job. If you need proof of this, look to Russell’s only start in week 17 and you’ll find he completed 23 passes, eight of them to Miller for 84 yards. I like Miller to carry his second half success over into 2008 and be one of the big surprises at the position, somewhere in the range of 55/600/6, easily out producing his current ADP.
We’ve already seen what the Steelers think of this kid with the release of Najeh Davenport - before camp opens Mendenhall is already #2 on the depth chart and primed to be the goal line running back. Mendy will be worked into the rotation early and could be getting significant touches by mid-season, but the problem with rookies has always been “hitting the wall” toward the end of the year. So while I do like his chances to make an impact, I don’t think the Steelers can completely dismiss Parker. At 10-12 touches a game, it’s hard to imagine Mendenhall will be an effective RB2 this season, so personally, I recommend that fantasy owners look elsewhere and draft him as your RB3 if you can land him. You’ll have mitigated the risk while still getting the potential upside of a starting back should Parker go down.
Walter led all Texans’ receivers in 2007, grabbing 65 passes for 800 yards and 4 TDs. Yes, Andre Johnson would have certainly led the team in receptions had he not been hurt, but the encouraging part is that Walter emerged into that #1 role when needed and had a solid season. He is now the clear #2 for the Texans and that offense will only get better in 2008 with Shaub’s first full season as a starter behind him. In spite of all this, Walter seems to be flying way under the radar right now, so he comes with very little risk and lots of upside. With or without AJ, he’s a guy who could put up another 65+ catch campaign and emerge as a solid contributor to your starting lineup.
If you're looking for a WR2 that has WR1-type upside, Anquan Boldin is your guy. In his five NFL seasons, Boldin is averaging 82 receptions per year and 6.07 catches per game played. He has also scored at least seven touchdowns in three of his five NFL campaigns. Boldin is quality. The Cardinals are expected to run the football more in 2008, but that shouldn't concern fantasy owners too much. When you have Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner as your team's back-up, you're going to be throwing the football often. As much as Whisenhunt wants to run the football in '08, this team is built to pass. If he ignores that and the staff doesn't pass the football early and often, well... the unit will be playing from behind most of the season anyway, and that just leads to more passing. Expect plenty of gunslinging this upcoming season no matter what, and those AZ receivers are both going to put up top 15WR numbers.
A few years back, Johnson was one of the game’s hottest commodities, being drafted in the top three and posting insane numbers. It all came to a head in 2006 when he put up 41 receptions, 2200 total yards, and 19 TDs…but then came last season’s foot injury, which ended his season after only 8 games. This off-season L.J. can’t be given away, he is currently a mid-second round pick with an average ADP of around 11-14 overall. That may be about to change as recent accounts from mini-camp have his foot 100% healthy and he now seems a good bet to return to his pre-2007 form. The Chiefs certainly need him if they are to going stay competitive, and I see that translating into another big season. If you can manage to grab him as your RB2, you will be off to a great start in your draft.
Matt Leinart is currently being ranked well out of the top 10 at his position, with an ADP right around 14. Doesn’t really make sense if you consider that receiver Larry Fitzgerald is top 5 and Anquan Bolin is top 15. Well, unless you believe old man Warner is going to throw all those passes! Doubtful, and since Leinart has only played the equivalent of 14 games in two seasons, we really don’t know what he is capable of. But with a solid running game and those two elite receivers to throw to, I think he’s is a sure bet to finish top 8. It may sound crazy, but once you get by that first tier of the top 6-7 QBs, the remaining guys all come with questions and doubts, so why not take a shot on Leinart? In my opinion, he has more upside than any of them, and the small investment could end up paying huge dividends.
After years of Ward being the only show in town, all of a sudden the Steelers are loaded in the passing game. Santonio Holmes is entering his (magical) third season, 6-foot-5 Limas Sweed was drafted this past April, TE Heath Miller is as steady as they come, and Nate Washington is also in the mix. This is leading some to believe Ward will be an afterthought in the passing game, but I don’t see it that way. I expect Hines to get the majority of targets in this pass-first offense and see him maintaining (or exceeding) the 72/850/6 pace set over his last two seasons. The talent around him will keep the heat off and allow him to produce WR2 numbers, quite a bargain considering he is going at a WR3 price right now. Grab him if you can!
Not even one month ago, Chad Johnson was still talking about a possible holdout. How quickly things change! Well, don't say that we didn't warn you. We even went after him on the cheap in our 2008 FFX Dynasty Expert League. We sent Santonio Holmes and Roy Williams to FFToolbox.com and got back Chad Johnson and Todd Heap. This move has now given us this line-up: Tony Romo, Adrian Peterson, Larry Johnson, Michael Turner, Marques Colston, Chad Johnson and Todd Heap. This is in a 12-team Expert Fantasy Site league. Back to Chad... those that followed our lead are about to cash in, because the receiver appears to be as motivated as ever to play football. You may see Chad climb into our top 4-5 WRs entering 2008 and the guy is only 30... so he still actually has dynasty value in that 5-10 range for WRs. Expect big things out of Chad, Palmer and Housh in 2008.
Housh has been the subject of some recent debate on our FFX forums, especially in relation to his Bengal counterpart Chad Johnson. Regardless of how you rank these two, the fact remains that TJ has improved over his last four seasons - culminating in his monster campaign of 112/1143 with 12 TDs last year. Whether he can repeat those numbers is another story. A flurry of turmoil has come out of Cincinnati this off-season; Chad’s mini-holdout, TJ’s non-participation in voluntary workouts, and the more recent news of Chad’s ankle surgery. There can be no doubt that his production in that offense is tied to playing alongside a healthy CJ - if the situation were to get worse TJ’s value would certainly take a hit. I don’t think there is enough there to move him down just yet, so I see Mr. “Whosyourmomma” as a WR1 in 2008 with numbers similar to his 2007 campaign.
Jerry Porter is the Jags new #1 receiver and could be in for a very good season. I realize many have their doubts based on his past performance, but keep in mind that Porter began his career by sitting behind Brown and Rice in Oakland for four years. He didn’t get a real chance to start until 2004, and over those next two years he averaged 70/970/7 playing with Kerry Collins on a bad Raider team. His surroundings have improved greatly in 2008, as he will now play catch with David Garrard on a playoff caliber Jacksonville team that can run the ball. Because of this, it is not hard to imagine him posting similar, or better, numbers than that 04-05 stretch – WR2 potential that you can snag in the later rounds of your draft.
Deep sleeper alert! A third round pick of the Jaguars in 2007, Walker stands in at 6-foot-2, 210 pounds and was clocked running a 4.35 40-yard dash at last year’s combine. He missed all of last season recovering from a knee injury sustained in his junior year of college, but as of late all systems are go. Word out of recent OTAs is that he was cleared early by doctors and is catching the ball very well with no reports of knee swelling. Make no mistake, Walker has a lot of ground to make up, but he’s #1 material at his size and speed. And based on the Jags lack of depth at the position, I believe he will easily work his way into the WR3 spot by the start of the season. If you are looking for a receiver to take a shot on late in your draft, Walker just might be your man!
Matt Forte is causing some controversy on our Forums right now, because when our FFX Dynasty Rankings were updated today, they had Matt Forte ranked one spot above Jonathan Stewart. Crazy? We say absolutely not. Could either side be argued? Absolutely yes. No one is crazy liking any one of these top 3-4 rookie runners over the others, and running backs like Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams have proven that there are no guarantees in this league when it comes to elite college rushers - The talent doesn't always translate. Well, we say that Matt Forte absolutely deserves to be mentioned in that 3-4 range for 2008 rookie runners. In his final eight games of the 2007 season, the Tulane product averaged an amazing 202.37 yards-per-game on the ground and the back scored 23 rushing touchdowns on the year. If the Bears don't bring in a Kevin Jones, Forte is going to go nuts in Chicago in '08 and beyond.
Chad has had quite an offseason. After his verbal assault on the team got him nowhere, Chad has decided to “reinvent himself” and plans to let his play do the talking when minicamps open for the Bengals next week. Whether you believe that or not (I don’t), there is no doubt he is one of the top WRs in the league and is firmly entrenched in the top 8 at his position. He has had 90 catches in four of his last five seasons, averaging 1374 yards and 9 TDs over that span. Those are awesome numbers and you can expect more of the same this season. His value is back on the rise, so don’t expect to steal him in the 3rd or 4th rounds of your drafts anymore – if you want him, you’ll have to grab him earlier.
As you have probably heard, Marshawn Lynch's vehicle was involved in a hit and run over three days ago. Well, news just broke today suggesting that that police investigators are growing tired of Lynch's lack of cooperation in this matter, and the runner still has yet to meet with police. Well, it's time to start thinking about Xavier Omon. We're not suggesting that fantasy owners freak out and trade away Lynch for cheap, as these things can often times fade away as quickly as they emerged... but avoiding disaster is always a smart play. Omon is a very talented running back and if Lynch was ever suspended, or worse, we believe that Omon would be the guy that would likely start for the Bills in '08. Fred Jackson will command consideration, no question, but Omon is a beast-of-a-runner and he may be worth a second-round pick in 2008 rookie fantasy drafts. Think that is too high? Well, go draft that random rookie WR, I'll roll with Omon!
Now that Travis Henry has been released from the Broncos, Selvin Young is now the starting running back in Denver... right? I say wrong. Mike Shanahan is not the Shanahan of old. He does not stick with one runner for very long anymore and he loves to play his rookie runners. I expect Ryan Torain to take the job away from Young by the start of Week 1. If not by Week 1, soon after. I like Selvin and I think he would be a successful fantasy runner in that Denver attack, but if I have learned one thing about Mike Shanahan and his decision-making when it comes to running backs, he goes against the grain almost every time. He is so unpredictable, I wouldn't be shocked at all if Cecil Sapp started Week 1. Point is, Young has upside for the moment, but the real momentum in Denver always seems to be with the guy that isn't starting yet. Keep that in mind as you attack Young via trade!
If you're looking for an extremely deep sleeper at the WR position, Chiefs rookie Will Franklin might be your guy! The fourth-round draft pick out of Missouri appears to have strong hands and some quick moves - He also stands 6-2. It's early, and sometimes these impressive rookies end up getting cut before the season even begins, but so far we like what we're hearing on this kid and we advise fantasy owners to keep an eye on him. Other solid sleeper rookie WRs include: Earl Bennett (Bears), Jerome Simpson (Bengals), Jordy Nelson (Packers).
This time last year Calvin was all the rage; it was argued by some that he be taken ahead of Adrian Peterson in rookie drafts! Crazy, I know, but it gives you an idea of high his value was. In the end, CJ2 posted mediocre numbers - 48/756/4 - in a season marked by a nagging back injury. It was not a totally unexpected outcome, rookie WRs are rarely effective even without injuries. This season things are already looking up for the 6-foot-5, 240 pound man-beast; word out of mini-camp is that he looks sharp and has been a standout player thus far. This should come as no surprise to anyone who has seen him play, the real shock is how cheap he can now be had. Whether it be by draft or trade, his value is as low as it will ever be - take advantage while you can.
McGahee made the jump to Baltimore last season to become their featured back and immediately produced career numbers by putting up 1438 combined yards and 8 TDs in 15 games. This season McGahee is firmly entrenched as the starter and gets the added benefit of working with Cam Cameron who joined the Ravens as their new OC. This is the same Cam Cameron who coached LT to his best statistical season in 2006 and then followed that up with Ronnie Brown in 2007. If you need a refresher, Brown was the #1 back in football through 7 weeks last season before being injured. If the pattern holds, McGahee looks like a lock for top 5 numbers in Cameron’s system this year – a real steal considering his ADP is in the 15-20 range.
Tomlinson turns 29 soon and this has people starting to doubt his status as the #1 player in the game. There are two reasons for this. First, he is being compared to his insane 2300 total yard/33 TD season of 2006, so 2007 looks like the beginning of a downhill slide. In fact, statistically speaking, 2007 was his second best ever; he piled up 1949 total yards while scoring 21 touchdowns - 3rd most in his 7 years in the league. Second, the arrival of a new, young buck in Adrian Peterson has made LT look even older than he is. Funny part is that Peterson missed two games to injury last season – more games than LT has missed in his entire career! It’s all an illusion – Tomlinson is nowhere near ready to give up his throne and he will prove everyone wrong yet again this season.
Braylon Edwards exploded in 2007, catching 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16TDs. That is a phenomenal campaign and Edwards is certainly capable of putting together another season just like it in 2008. Only injuries stand in his way, but Edwards getting banged up is definitely a concern given his long list of injuries. If healthy, though, the sky is the limit for years and years to come, especially after his beast-of-a-quarterback just signed a three-year deal worth $24 million. Anderson is a top five talent and the biggest reason Edwards ripped it up last season. Edwards is an elite receiver, don't get me wrong, but Anderson is the real deal and Edwards needs him to continue his top 5WR play. Anyone doubting this combo in 2008 will be extremely disappointed at Week 16's end. While I am not marking Edwards down for another 16 scores in this upcoming fantasy year, I think he can throw down more receiving yards... 90 receptions, 1,400 yards and 13-14 scores sounds about right for Edwards.
Andre Johnson is already a stud WR worthy of placement among your top five, but he still has plenty of ability to outperform that ranking. In 2006, he posted a 103/1147/5TD season and would have easily topped all those marks last season had he not been injured for seven games. If you play out his 2007 numbers through 16 games, Johnson could have been looking at a 107/1512/14 TD season – putting him in elite company and in the top three of all those categories. It obviously assumes a lot, but the point is this: the sky is the limit with Johnson, and it’s not a matter of if it will happen, but when. I think 2008 is that season.
Derek Anderson might just be the next Carson Palmer. The Browns quarterback threw for 3,787 yards and 29 touchdowns last season. Even though he had 19 INTs, the 6-6 signal-caller had three rushing touchdowns. Thirty-two total scores is an amazing start to what I feel will be a very successful NFL career. With a receivers like Braylon Edwards and Donte Stallworth stretching the field, I see no reason Anderson can't throw for 4,000 yards and score 35 total touchdowns in 2008. Let someone else draft Drew Brees in the 35-40 range this August, then grab Derek Anderson in the 50-60 range. His ADP could rise as we near August, but I doubt it. Many will question Anderson's hold on the starting gig over in Cleveland, but not us. Anderson is ready to be a top 5-6 fantasy QB and it all starts this upcoming season.
If you are looking for a sleeper at WR this season, Bryant Johnson is one to keep an eye on. Johnson began his career with the Cardinals as a first round pick in 2003 and almost immediately found himself buried behind Boldin and Fitzgerald as their #3 receiver. During that span he averaged 42/550/2 per season – not bad considering the circumstances. That will change this year as Johnson was brought in by the 49ers to compete for the #1 spot in an offense that will be run by Mike Martz. At 6-foot-3, 216 pounds, he has both the size and speed to excel in Martz’s system and I love his chances to get up into the 65+ catch range. Considering his current ADP has him going in rounds 11-13, he will be an absolute steal this season.
For those that don't know, the Rams have a new offensive coordinator this year and his name is Al Saunders. If you remember back, Saunders was in Kansas City from 2001 to 2005, where his teams averaged 48.6 touchdowns per season. Saunders has a history of having success on the ground, it wasn't just in Kansas City. The offensive genius was in St. Louis back in 2000 - Marshall Faulk scored 26 touchdowns that season. This was the same year that the Rams scored 540 points. Faulk, Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson were all scoring machines under Saunders, and both Faulk and Holmes had 26+ touchdown seasons under the guy. L.J. scored 21 total touchdowns in 2005. Steven Jackson is in for a big year!
Marques Colston had a monster rookie campaign back in 2006, catching 70 balls for 1,038 yards and 8TDs. While many doubted that he could once again spit out insane numbers in his second season as a pro, Colston responded with 98 catches, 1,202 and 11TDs (and to think, 2008 was supposed to be his third-year breakout campaign). I think it is safe to say that this guy is a legit WR1 and doubting his ability to put up 90/1,200/10+ is foolish. His average draft position is starting to climb into the 26-30 range, which is about right, so it doesn't appear that you will be stealing the receiver in early 2008 drafts, but he is well worth the grab in the beginning of that third-round come draft day. The best advice we can give fantasy owners in 2008 drafts is to go RB/RB in the first two rounds and land a Colston as your WR1 - That would be a great start to a very balanced team. Colston in the third is a lot better for the construction of a fantasy team than a Reggie Wayne in the mid second.
Clinton Portis is a fantasy beast that can be had at a discount price. If you toss out his injury plagued 2006 season, he is averaging 340/1644/9 on the ground and 39/280/1 through the air in his 3 other seasons as a Redskin. That’s a bona fide #1 in any format and things don’t look any different for him in 2008. New head coach Jim Zorn will be implementing a West Coast offense this season and has already indicated that the 26 year-old Portis will be getting a heavy load. If you have a late first-round pick this season, don’t despair; Portis will be waiting for you at the bottom of round-one and produce like a top 5RB when all is said and done.
Respect – where is it for Brees? Here’s a guy who has finished top two in passing yards and #1 overall in completions the last two seasons, in addition to his very steady 54 TD passes over that span, yet in many drafts you won’t see him being selected until the 4th- or 5th-round. Sometimes he will even be the sixth QB taken. While you could argue not taking him ahead of Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, I do see him ahead of guys like Tony Romo, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger. He clearly has weapons to work with - Marques Colston and Reggie Bush – and runs one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Heck, he can even make average players look good: David Patten with 54 catches? His ADP value is clearly there, so let him fall to you and be confident he will produce like a top 3 QB, maybe more!
While I'm not all that high on Jason Campbell fantasy-wise, I think he will do a decent job getting Santana Moss the football in 2008. Moss will be seriously underrated entering August fantasy drafts, and while I don't advise anyone to expect top 10WR numbers out of the little guy, he has a high ceiling given where you can get him. Moss has top 15WR talent, there is no doubt about it, but it's the injuries, and some quarterback musical chairs, that have caused him to be consistently inconsistent. Moss has put up two thousand-yard seasons in his career, scoring 9TDs in one of them and 10TDs in the other. He is proven, but that inconsistency that i just mentioned will make him a bargain in '08. I expect Washington to play well this upcoming year, and with a little luck in the health department, Moss could be in for another thousand-yard season and eight or so scores. Draft him as a WR3 and you may get more out of him.
Brandon Jacobs had a solid 2007 season, rushing the football 202 times for 1,009 yards and 4TDs. He also added 23 receptions for 174 yards and 2TDs. The back averages 5.0 yards-per-carry and he is an absolute horse when rushing the football, but at 6-4, 264 pounds, he just isn't going to stay healthy if the Giants keep feeding him 18+ carries per game. Well, the emergence of Ahmad Bradshaw could actually help with this, as the team can lessen Jacobs' load down to roughly 10-12 carries per game, which will probably only get him roughly 900 yards rushing, but it may get him back to scoring double-digit touchdowns. It's a give and a take. Less carries between the 20s could equal more healthy touches near the goal line (plus a longer career).
What a season Witten had last year! He caught 96 passes for 1,145 yards (four 100-yard games) and 7TDs. Those are top 10-12WR numbers right there! Most here at FFX have Antonio Gates as their #1TE, but not me. Witten should catch at least 80 passes this coming season for 900-1,000 yards with 7-8TDs. Tony Romo is only going to get better and Witten is his boy! Gates (toe surgery) says he will be ready by Week 1, but even if he is, will he be 100% and able to play 16 games? Because of these question marks, Witten is my guy in 2008 and I don't even hesitate taking him over Gates when on the clock.
Cedric Benson's recent arrest, reportedly for boating while intoxicated and resisting arrest, pushes rookie RB Matt Forte into the spotlight. Our guess is that the Bears will be somewhat quiet on the situation, at least for now, but we fully expect Forte to gain momentum quickly and have a Kung-Fu Grip on the starting job come August. When all is said in done, Matt Forte could end up being the steal of 2008 fantasy football rookie drafts. As far as long-term value goes, we rank the Bears rook fourth, but he could very well have as good a rookie campaign as anyone.
In 15 games last year, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 3,154 yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 INTs. He also ran for 204 yards and two scores. In four seasons, Roethlisberger has led Pittsburgh to two AFC championship games, one Super Bowl and three playoff appearances. No Pittsburgh signal-caller has ever had a better start to their career. There are some obvious line concerns in Pittsburgh, as the offensive line has been on a steady decline since its elite play back in 2004. They gave up 47 sacks last season and just lost All-Pro guard Alan Faneca to the Jets. There is a bright side, though, as Marvel Smith (back surgery) should be back to form in '08 and the team just drafted rookie OT Tony Hills (130th)... it's unclear where Hills will fit in, but he has talent for sure... the coaching staff may shuffle this line around to play to its strengths. The strengths are there, it's all about piecing it together. We expect Roethy to explode in '08.
Who is the #4 rookie runner heading into the 2008 fantasy football season? Well, according to you guys (via our FFX Site poll), it's going to be either Kevin Smith or Matt Forte. My gut tells me that the Forte voters will be the winners when all is said and done, but keep an eye on Denver Broncos rookie runner Ryan Torain. If Shanny publicly crowns Torain as his opening day starter, things could change rather quickly. Reports out of Denver suggest that the Broncos have the same feeling about Torain as they had about Terrell Davis. Because Shanny loves his rookie running backs, it isn't a question of "if" Torain will start for the Broncos, it's "when" Torain start for the Broncos?
The Lions should have grabbed Rashard Mendenhall with that No. 17 overall pick during the 2008 NFL Draft. Good thing for Mendy, though, as the Illinois product is going to have a monster career in Pittsburgh. Mendy will fit into that Steelers offense much like Joseph Addai fits into that Colts offense in Indy. Doubting his upside in PIT is a huge mistake in my opinion. As for Smith, I think that he is a very solid talent and he could have 900/5 type of season as a rookie, but look for him to be quite inconsistent. That offense is only going to move the football down the field so much, and they could be playing from behind in a lot of contests. Matt Forte is looking like my clear #4 runner behind Mendenhall, McFadden and Stewart - Smith is my 5th.
Oakland has some guns! JaMarcus Russell, Javon Walker, DeAngelo Hall and now Darren McFadden. Even if the Raiders struggle to put it all together in 2008, they are sure to be a productive fantasy unit. McFadden was drafted to start and he is going to be used a ton right out of the gate (assuming he signs on time). If forced to draft a rookie runner (in a fantasy rookie draft) with only the 2008 fantasy season in mind, I'd probably go with McFadden, although many staffers here would say Jonathan Stewart. If we're talking for the future, my top ranked rookie is Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall. Don't get me wrong, McFadden is right there, but the Steelers are a great place for Mendy. Willie Parker felt like he was already on the way out of the fantasy spotlight, so we're not sure why so many fantasy owners are reacting negatively to this landing spot.
Make no mistake, the Atlanta Falcons are on the rise. It all started with the signing of stud running back Michael Turner earlier this off-season, and then it was topped off with the selecting of future-franchise QB Matt Ryan and solidly-talented OT Sam Baker. The Falcons still have a handful of picks for day two (today), so expect the solid additions to continue. This team is being constructed much like the Cleveland Browns were back in 2007, and they may turn the franchise around just as fast. We still like Redman's upside, but Ryan is an outstanding talent and he has a top 10-15WR to toss the ball to in Roddy White. The word out of Atlanta is that the Falcons offensive line is going to play with one goal in mind: To prove everyone wrong. The Falcons organization believes that this offensive line is already underrated - We agree. Turner is a top 10-12 fantasy runner entering '08.
Both Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart could have landed in better situations for the '08 season, but both have better future value than most will initially think. DeAngelo Williams is a talent, no doubt, but he is not built to be a full-time runner in the NFL. Even if he could play like one for a season, he wouldn't last long in this league. Stewart is the perfect fit there in Carolina and he might be a stud as early as '08. Even if Williams and Stewart split carries throughout the entire first-half of the '08 season, he could still play as well as Maurice Jones-Drew and Joseph Addai did in their rookie seasons. Both Addai and Jones-Drew shared carries in their rookie seasons back in '06, and between the two, they started just one single game. As you can see, "starting" in this league doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot. With Stewart's talent, even if sharing carries, he can have a monster year. His future is even brighter.
We think that this is a great fit for Matt Forte. Chicago clearly had more questions about their running back situation than their quarterback situation... that says something. With that Chicago defense still being stellar, Forte could be used early and often in 2008 and he may just be the clear #4 overall rookie runner entering 2008 fantasy rookie drafts.
What a crazy 2008 NFL Draft! The Pittsburgh Steelers landed an elite rusher in Rashard Mendenhall, but they already have Willie Parker. So what now? Well, make no mistake, Rashard Mendenhall is the future of that Steelers' rushing attack and he is going to be an absolute fantasy monster... but it is possible that he gets off to a slow start in 2008. Now, it is also possible that the Parker (fractured fibula) may not be as close to 100% as he claims, but for the most part, fantasy owners have to assume that this move was made because the Steelers want to run the football up the middle. For all you 2008 redraft leaguers, consider Mendy a top 30ish overall talent, with room for a lot more... for all you dynasty leaguers, we still firmly believe that Mendy has top 10 overall fantasy upside in the coming years! No question.
This 2008 NFL Draft is likely to produce two future top ten fantasy running backs. Both Darren McFadden and Rashard Mendenhall are that talented, and one of them might end up being a top five overall pick for years and years to come. Granted, for this to happen, these rookies will have to find solid landing spots during this Saturday's 2008 NFL Draft, but at this point in the week, we're fairly confident that both will soon be in very good situations. Mendenhall reminds us a lot of LaDainian Tomlinson, while McFadden plays a lot like a stronger Reggie Bush. In the perfect environment, Mendy is the guy that could quickly turn into one of the next top five fantasy talents. McFadden could progress a bit slower, kind of like Brian Westbrook did in his maturing years, but a Westbrook-like fantasy game is in the cards for D-Mac in the near future. What a draft class this will be!
Reggie Bush is going to have some seriously solid draft value entering '08 August drafts. If you're already counting Bush out as an elite talent, you're rushing to judgment far too quickly. Bush had an outstanding 16-game rookie campaign back in 2006, rushing for 565 yards, pulling in 88 receptions for 742 yards and posting eight total scores. Even though Bush had similar numbers on the ground in 2007 (157 carries, 581 yards, he only scored 6 times total and only had 417 receiving yards on similar receptions (73). At first glance, all of this looks bad, right? Wrong. Bush only played 12 games last year and due to a Deuce McAllister injury, he was forced into a between-the-tackles role, something that takes away from Bush's talents. With Pierre Thomas capable of the inside duties in 2007, Bush could rush for 500-600, catch 80 balls for 800+ yards and score 10-12 total touchdowns. Bush has steal written all over him this upcoming season, as he is going in the third-round in early mocks!
Jennings went off last season, catching 53 passes for 920 yards and 12TDs. Can you imagine what Jennings would do in 2008, his third-year breakout season, if Brett Favre were still playing football? That's the problem here, Favre isn't playing football, and new starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers just isn't going to get it done. He may play decent in 2008, but he won't come close to the success that Brett Favre had last year. Favre was playing some of the best football that he has ever played back in '07, and he was force-feeding Jennings like no other quarterback is capable of doing. Favre is the kind of QB that can turn decent talent good, and good talent great. Rodgers will have a tough enough time playing 16 games in '08, so consider trading Jennings now if you can get a Santonio Holmes type. We just don't see another 900-yard/double-digit touchdown year for Jennings in '08.
Before going down in Week 7 with a torn ACL, Ronnie Ronnie was arguably the best running back in fantasy football. Brown was averaging 141 total yards per game and was on pace for 11+ scores. He was a monster last year, but what should fantasy owners expect from him entering this year? Well, probably the biggest thing going against Brown this year is that Cam Cameron is no longer in Miami. Cameron is now in Baltimore, which is great for Willis McGahee owners, but awful for Brown owners, as Cameron was heavily responsible for Brown's 2007 success. Even if Brown didn't tear his ACL last year, and was heading into the 2008 season healthy, he would still suffer a HUGE hit in fantasy production due to the departure of Cameron. In addition to that, it really takes two full years to return to form after an ACL tear, so Brown is in for a rough year. Expect about 1,000 on the ground with maybe eight scores, but if you're expecting anything more than that, think again.
Jake Delhomme (Tommy John surgery) got off to a hot start in 2007, throwing six touchdown passes in weeks one and two alone. Delhomme didn't finish his Week 3 contest against the Falcons... in fact, he never played again in 2007, but before leaving in the third quarter in Week 3, the Panthers QB threw two more touchdown passes. That's 8TD passes in less than three games. Delhomme (elbow) still has some recovering to do, but all signs point to Delhomme being ready to rumble in '08. I know... what about Steve Smith? Well, in those first two weeks last season, when Delhomme was healthy, Smith had 15 receptions for 271 receiving yards and 4TDs! Does anyone else remember this? If Delhomme is healthy and laser locked on Smith in '08, the WR is easily capable of putting up top 3WR numbers.
Fast Willie Parker (broken fibula), who scored just two total TDs last year, is a tough guy to rank right now. Rumors are floating around news wires right now suggesting that the Steelers want to invest a high 2008 draft pick on a power back. In fact, there is some recent speculation that suggests that the Steelers may take a running back as early as the first-round, like a Jonathan Stewart (toe). So, how does one rank Parker heading into this upcoming fantasy season? Well, we suggest that you redraft leaguers out there pass on Parker in that second-round in '08. Let someone else take the gamble and grab yourself a Maurice Jones-Drew or a Michael Turner. For those that own FWP in dynasty leagues, test the trade waters now before the 2008 NFL Draft makes your situation even worse. Don't sell too low, but certainly get creative and construct a two-for-one type of package that may look more attractive to the buyer. Get on our FFX Forums for some ideas!
LaDainian Tomlinson has one of the easiest rushing schedules in 2008. Of course, the NFL Schedule still has not been released, but the 2008 NFL Opponents Schedule has, which is on the homepage for your viewing pleasure. Now, of course defenses change from year to year, but using last year's stats, Tomlinson's 2008 opponents average roughly 22nd against the run. To put this into perspective, the NFL team with the worst rushing schedule in '08 is the New York Giants. Brandon Jacobs' 2008 opponents average roughly 10th against the run based on last year's stats. If you plan to trade Tomlinson this year in keeper formats, we suggest that you wait until he explodes in a few early contests. As for the NFL Schedule, a source has told us that the full NFL schedule could be released this Tuesday (April 15th).
Romo threw for 4,211 yards in 2007, which is a 263.2 yards-per-game average. He also scored 38 total touchdowns (36 passing), which is phenomenal given that the 27 year-old is only going to get better entering his 5th NFL season. Romo is capable of being the #1 fantasy QB in 2008, and he could very well be the best dynasty guy at his position. If the guy can score 38 touchdowns in just his second season as an NFL starter, imagine how much better he can get!
Watch out for Bradshaw this upcoming year. Brandon Jacobs is always banged up and he is far too big to stay healthy as a full-time starter. He is an amazing talent, but at 6-4, 260+ pounds, staying healthy just isn't going to happen. Bradshaw could benefit from this and start a handful of games in 2008. During the 2007 regular season, he really only played one game, but he made the most of it. In that Week 16 battle against the Bills, Bradshaw ran the ball 17 for 151 (8.9 Avg.) and 1TD. The Giant also played well during the playoffs, eclipsing 60+ rushing yards twice. This is the guy that you draft a bit higher than you want to, but not so high that he isn't a "sleeper" pick. He isn't even an NFL starter yet, but he should be on fantasy radars as a middle round steal.
Recent news suggests that Frank Gore's high ankle sprain is completely healed. That injury plagued him for a big chunk of the 2007 season, but Gore still put up 1,102 yards and 5TDs on the ground and caught 53 passes for 436 yards and 1TD through the air. Even though his knees and shoulders concern me, he will only be 25 years-old when the season begins. That means Gore should still be considered a top 5 overall talent in all leagues and formats. In fact, with Mike Martz committing to structure the entire 49ers offense around Gore this upcoming year, he could possibly put up 1,100+ rushing yards, 600+ receiving yards and 10-12 total scores. For you PPR people, Gore could have a 65+ reception-season under Martz.
When is Maurice Jones-Drew going to shine again? After exploding onto the scene in his rookie season in 2006 (166 carries for 941 yards and 13TDs, along with 46 receptions for 436 yards and 2TDs), Jones-Drew took a back seat in 2007, as Fred Taylor ran the ball 223 times last year for 1,202 yards. Despite not being handed the starting gig last year, Jones-Drew still racked up 1,175 total yards and 9 total scores. That's solid! Still, the 23 year-old is capable of so much more and that is the most frustrating thing for fantasy owners to accept. Will this be the year that the "human bowling ball" gets his 250+ carries? We think so - We also believe that if that happens, you might just see the little guy rack-up about 1,400+ yards on the ground, 500+ through the air and 12-15 total scores. He is the perfect mid-to-late second-round pick heading into August drafts, as he is capable of top 5-7 fantasy RB numbers this upcoming season. Trade for the guy on the cheap in dynasty leagues!
Lee Evans is one of our favorite bounce-back receivers entering the 2008 fantasy football season. Evans, 27, had a mediocre 2007 campaign, catching just 55 passes for 849 yards and 5 scores. Dick Jauron's conservative approach, as well as his plans to feed the ball to Marshawn Lynch at least 20-25 times per game, will actually open things up for the recently keyed on Evans. Evans has top 5-10WR talent, he just needs space - New OC Turk Schonerthe should help get him that space he needs in 2008.
If you're looking for a "deep" sleeper running back in 2008, Pierre Thomas definitely fits the bill. Thomas has solid size at 210 pounds and stands 5-11. He only ran the ball 50 times in his rookie season, but he showed flashes of brilliance in both the rushing game and passing game, especially in Week 16 against the Bears. In that contest, in Chicago, Thomas gained 226 yards from scrimmage in his first NFL start, running for 105 yards on 20 carries and grabbing 12 balls for 121 yards and a score through the air. Even though it was just Week 17, it was an incredible outing and it may have earned him the old "Deuce McAllister" role, which was so successful back in 2006. Thomas is definitely a great "sell high" guy because of the questions that surround his situation, but at the same time, he is also an absolute must-have if you can do the buying and buy him on the cheap.
Who is the next top 10 breakout wide receiver? We get asked this question quite often... the answer? Santonio Holmes. Holmes had an extremely impressive sophomore campaign, where he caught 52 passes for 942 yards and 8TDs. If Holmes didn't miss two games and play semi-hurt for another two, he could have very easily turned that season into a 12TD-type season with 70 catches for 1,300+ receiving yards. Everyone knows the third-year breakout theory for WRs, so the signs are there. Trade for him now before he becomes to costly - He should currently be a bargain in most leagues.