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According to the Twitter account of ESPN's Amy K. Nelson, WSMV is now confirming that former NFL QB Steve McNair was murdered in downtown Nashville by his wife, and then his wife killed herself. CNBC's Darren Rovell is now reporting on his Twitter account that WSMV is "pulling back" the report about McNair's wife being the killer.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: If the first part of the above report is true, this just got even worse – We will keep you updated as more information becomes available. We will try to confirm the above reports as well and find out if the wife was in fact the one that killed McNair. As of right now, there are conflicting reports on that.
According to the Twitter account of ESPN's Amy K. Nelson, former Titans' QB Steve McNair has been found dead due to a gunshot wound to the head.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: We will keep you posted on the details, but it appears to be a double homicide. A woman was also found dead at the scene. We will let all of you know when more information becomes available. Our condolences go out to the McNair family.
Gambler: Crazy and tragic. My prayers go out to the family.
North End Dirtdogs: All I can say is wow, as this is awful news. My thoughts go to the McNair family.
According to a story on ProFootballWeekly.com, Cardinals backup QB Matt Leinart has shown "impressive maturity" in the face of Kurt Warner's new contract extension and the departure of offensive coordinator Todd Haley. A team insider says Leinart "has shown steady progress with both his throwing and conditioning, and it’s obvious he wants to be a good player." Leinart is entering his fourth season with the Cardinals after being their first round choice (#10 overall) in 2006.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I think most of us here at FFX agree that Leinart still has some dynasty value, but only injury can thrust Leinart into the Cardinals line-up in 2009.
Tavaner: Did anyone you know predict Warner would stay healthy the entire season last year? Anyone predicting that this year? I'm not buying either Warner or Leinart, sorry. I hope Warner stays healthy but I wouldn't give anything more than a 3rd rounder in a deep league for Hollywood Matt. It took him three years to decide he wanted to be a good player? More like he saw what happened to Alex Smith and doesn't want to take less. A note for those who consider taking Fitz early in the first round...what happens to his value if Leinart steps in?
X: With Kurt Warner entrenched as the starter for at least another year, it is not looking like he will get a shot to play unless injury strikes. With his talent, I still think Leinart is worth taking a shot on in dynasty leagues, even more so if you own Warner. His price is way low right now and may even be on the wire in some leagues.
According to Steelers Live, 2nd-year RB Rashard Mendenhall is expected to have a bigger role in the offense but that is entirely up to him. Head coach Mike Tomlin had this to say, "He's got to put himself back into the offense. I am not responsible for Mendenhall's role in the offense.. HE IS." Tomlin also added, "Rashard Mendenhall has to just fight to get on that field in August."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Mendy is young and talented but it may be the first time in a long time that's he's been told he has to earn it. I expect Mendy to produce this year with increased production as the year goes on. He'll have to prove he wants it to his teammates and his coaches, but I believe he does. He'll be a buy-low kinda guy until the first time he wows in an exhibition game.
X: Just another example of a highly touted prospect becoming an after thought only a year later. These guys have to prove they can play before they get on the field, and that includes being able to understand the play book and do the little things it takes to be a complete NFL player - talent only goes so far. I still think Mendy can become a good player and is worth trying to acquire at the right price assuming you have room to stash him.
North End Dirtdogs: It sounds like Tomlin is trying to light a fire under the former 1st round pick as he still has a lot to prove. No doubt Mendenhall has the talent to succeed but there many mouths to feed in the PIT backfield including starter Willie Parker, 3rd down back Mewelde Moore, and possible GL back Frank Summers. Although Parker remains the starter, he is injury prone and in a contract season, so soon enough, Mendenhall will get his shot. Now is the time to be buying while his value is relatively low.
According to Chris Brown of Buffalobills.com, the Bills could use a no-huddle offense close to 50 percent of the time in 2009.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The writer cited above says that the Bills will roll with the no-huddle 50 percent of the time "at best," but anything close to 50 percent is good news for the fantasy owners of Trent Edwards, Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. Owens is falling quite a bit in early 2009 fantasy football mock drafts - His redraft ADP is around 3.08 to 4.02. Even though Owens is 35, that's bargain value right there! Roll with it entering August!
Tavaner: T.O. plays well with others in his first year with a new team. A great bargain in re-drafts, I expect him to have a solid first half of the season, at which point, I'd move him in redrafts. In dynasty play he's got 2-3 years of solid production left and can still win you a ballgame as a high end WR2.
X: I question whether the Bills have the quarterbacks to be able to run this type of offense. A successful no-huddle offense relies on a smart and decisive QB, and also requires the WRs and other offensive players be on the same page. Can Edwards and Owens get that type of rapport worked out by season start? We'll see, but even if they don't go the no-huddle route, Owens is one of the biggest redraft bargains out there at WR.
According to Adam Schefter on his Twitter account, the Broncos are listening to offers for WR Brandon Marshall. Schefter does make it clear that the Broncos won't make calls and are not really inclined to trade him, but they will listen. He also speculates that a first round pick would probably be enough for the Broncos to part ways with Marshall.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: In the end, I don't see Marshall getting traded out of Denver. Anything is possible, and the Jay Cutler trade is proof of that, but I just don't see how the Broncos organization can justify getting rid of both Cutler and Marshall during the same off-season. Buy-low on Marshall if the price is right, but keep in mind that there is still a lot of risk attached to his name.
Tavaner: We'll have to endure rumors for the next month. He won't be going anywhere as the team trading for him would have to give him a new contract and he won't be giving any discounts.
X: This saga won't end anytime soon and I'm not so sure a first rounder would get it done. Stay tuned.
Gambler: I'm one that believes Marshall will be gone. That Denver isn't taking a hard stance on this and saying they won't trade him speaks volumes to me. I believe most teams would be doing themselves a favor parting with their 2010 first round pick to aquire a top ten WR.
According to SFGate.com, 49ers RB Frank Gore is pleased to have fullback Moran Norris back on the roster. "We're very close on and off the field," Gore said about his fullback. It was Norris that lead the way for Gore back in 2006, the season the running back ran for 1,695 yards, pulled in 61 receptions for 485 yards and scored nine total touchdowns.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Gore even had nine 100-yard games during that 2006 campaign, so getting Norris back is huge! How huge? Check out Gore's newly added Player Spotlight. Take advantage of Gore's current ADP - He is falling into the top of the second-round in some early drafts, which is insane value! As I state in his recently added Spotlight, Gore has top six overall upside heading into 2009.
Tavaner: A blocking fullback makes all the difference, just ask LT what a difference Lorenzo Neal makes. Then check out the RB Neal will be blocking for this year. I agree with DirtDogs, a top 5-7 RB and maybe higher.
Gambler: If you have been around the site for any length of time, you've noticed more then a few of us are extremely high on Gore. He's a young stud talent thats put up huge production before. Expect a return to that this year as the stars all align for Gore. Top 5 RB in my book.
North End Dirtdogs: Let's also not forget that the injury Gore suffered last season to miss a few games was to his ankle and not knee related. I agree Gore is in for a great season and will be a top 5-7 RB in 2009.
According to thedenverchannel.com, Denver Broncos WR Brandon Marshall said he wanted to be traded by the Broncos and verbally attacked the city of Denver during his arrest for driving under the influence Oct. 22, 2007.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I have to agree with North End – The theme with Marshall will continue to be "buy-low" and it will remain that way until further notice.
Gambler: North End has it right. Marshall is still Marshall (one of the most gifted WRs in the NFL). All this negative press is dropping him down draft charts, but once he steps on the field he's a beast. Get him while his price is low.
North End Dirtdogs: The Marshall saga continues, but as of right now, Denver is claiming they will not trade the WR. Maybe they will soften their stance, but they already bent over backwards for Jay Cutler. Add up Marshall's mistrust for the current Broncos organization, off the field arrests, longing for a new contract, and hip surgery recovery and you have the perfect scenario for buying low on an elite WR. Find the frustrated owner in your league and attack if you feel he is worth the risk!
According to Scout.com, Jaguars WR Mike Thomas is the likely candidate to replace former Jaguars WR Dennis Northcutt in the slot.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The fourth-round pick could emerge as a decent grab in the largest of dynasty leagues. I still like Jarett Dillard more at this point, but that could change. Either way, Torry Holt and Mike Walker are the team's starting receivers -- Dillard and Thomas will have to impress on a limited basis and just wait for opportunity.
Tavaner: I believe it's only a matter of time before Thomas and Dillard step in as starters. In re-drafts, both are flyers, but if forced, I'd take my chances with Thomas first. The best part of the equation is being able to learn from Holt, which should help them in years to come. I'd steer clear of them in anything but a deep dynasty league.
Santonio Holmes revealed that he's bulked up this offseason, adding as much as 10 pounds of muscle.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: It's no secret that Holmes is one of my breakout candidates this season. I know I predicted big things for him last year, but I think I'm just going to be a year late on this one. He looked great during the playoffs last year and he is clearly dedicated this year. He is the league's most talented deep-threat in my opinion and the added weight will only help him in that department. That Pittsburgh passing attack is very underrated and Roethy is going to impress in '09.
Tavaner: Santonio slots in as a WR2 for me, a low-end WR2, at that. While he's added muscle, it's his hands that concern me along with the aforementioned fun first offense. Roethy threw 30 times a game last year, completing just over 17 a game. I don't see that changing, nor do I believe Holmes will get the number of targets necessary for solid WR2 status.
tusken10: In the NFL, situation can often be more of a factor in a player's performance than talent. Holmes, unfortunately for fantasy owners, is on the wrong end of this situation. He should take over as his team's #1 wide out, but because of Pittsburgh's conservative offensive style, he probably won't ever approach WR1 fantasy numbers. He will make a solid WR2 and a fantastic WR3 or flex, but his upside is limited. 75/950/7 seems right for him.
North End Dirtdogs: Many are predicting a huge season for Holmes building off his great Super Bowl line and also Hines Ward is not getting any younger. I think he will assume the top WR status in PIT this season, but I can't predict anything more than WR2 numbers from him due to the Steelers tendency to run and the other receiving options (Ward, Miller) in the offense.
According to ESPN.com's Bill Williamson, the Broncos do not appear likely to trade WR Brandon Marshall. Marshall requested a trade roughly two weeks ago, but a source close to the situation told Williamson on Monday that the Broncos will maintain their stance when it comes to this issue and the organization is not likely to move the receiver elsewhere.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The team reportedly expects Marshall to show up for training camp, but it's hard to imagine it all playing out so smoothly given the fact that Marshall has already said goodbye to all of his fans on his official Website. Because his fantasy value has taken such a tremendous hit this off-season, he remains a fantastic buy-low candidate in all formats. Could he burn you if you invest? Absolutely, but when the price is right, the price is right!
Tavaner: Brandon Marshall has no leverage. If he hopes to be a UFA next year he has to show up to training camp. Then he has to hope that a new agreement is reached between the players association and the NFL, or he'll be tied to Denver an additional two years. Every day that he isn't in training camp will only cost him money this year and next. He's in a lose/lose situation and he's not insightful enough to see that.
According to YahooSports, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell might end up keeping QB Michael Vick on the sideline indefinitely. “[Vick] is not just walking out one day and playing again,” a source reportedly close to Vick said. “I don’t know if he understands that yet, but that’s what it looks like right now if you really pay attention. … Yeah, he served his time, but he has to prove himself. When the commissioner talks about wanting to see remorse, he’s not kidding.”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Goodell wants to see Vick show some remorse for what he has done, and he might make him sit a year, or at least half a season, before he gives him a shot to hit the field. Most everyone appears to be stabbing in the dark on this one, so our advice is to wait for Goodell to address the issue himself. Even if Vick is able to return early this season, he will likely climb into a back-up role at best - At least at first.
Tavaner: Vick lied to the commissioner's face. That won't be forgotten, or forgiven, any time soon. The only reason Vick won't twist in the wind longer than he will, is because Goodell will likely announce his suspension soon after he announces his decision on Burress.
According to YahooSports, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is "leaning toward" suspending WR Plaxico Burress indefinitely.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: This clearly wasn't what Burress owners were hoping for. For now, don't expect much, if anything at all, out of Burress in 2009. Stay tuned.
Tavaner: Given NFL Commissioner Roger Godell's track record a suspension is not a surprise. I'd hold onto Burress for now in most dynasty leagues, drop him in keeper leagues and leave him on the wire in redrafts until we know more. I expect Burress to be suspended early enough to have time for an appeal to be filed before the start of training camps with the NFLPA involved at some point.
According to fanhouse, Titans receivers coach Fred Graves said: "Kenny can come in, relax and learn the offense, And at some point and time, learn what his role is."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I'm not expecting much from Britt this season, but that could change as we near August. Keep an eye on his play in the coming weeks and months.
Tavaner: Not too much pressure there and I feel this bodes well for Britt's long term value. He's a first rounder (rookie draft) in dynasty leagues, but you might want to look for other options in redrafts. At least in the first part of the season. Keep an eye out though, at some point this year, he'll get his chance, the deeper into the year that is the better for him.
North End Dirtdogs: The Titans will remain a heavy running team and have veterans Nate Washington and Justin Gage as the projected starters ahead of Britt. He very well could have a good future in the NFL and is a good dynasty prospect, but 2009 could be a learning year for the rookie.
According to the Dayton Daily News, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer looked good at minicamp last week, but admits that his arm strength needs some work. The quarterback’s plan to strengthen the arm is no ancient Chinese secret. In fact, the solution to the problem is a fairly easy fix. “Throw,” Palmer said.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Palmer could be a top 5-7 fantasy quarterback this upcoming season, and given that his ADP is currently sitting in the eighth- to ninth-round range, he's looking like a possible bargain grab in 2009.
Tavaner: Earlier in the year I was skeptical that Palmer could successfully return without surgery. While I have small lingering concerns, reports of his accuracy in OTA's offer renewed hope. It's no secret that the Bengals need to throw to win, savvy owners may get a QB1 at QB2 prices. Monitor the news out of camp, but Palmer could be used in a QBBC and has more upside than downside with an ADP, between 77 and 86, mid 6th - early 7th.
tusken10: People are understandably down on Palmer this season, but good fantasy owners can use this to your advantage (as Tav stated, QB1 and QB2 prices). In his first 3 years as a starter, he averaged 4001/29 which is incredible when you consider the absolute mess that Cincinnati has been for the past 15 + years. He should finish as a top 6 QB and will easily outperform his current ADP.
According to the National Football Post, after QB JaMarcus Russell issued a call to his teammates to practice and finish the OTA days strong, he then disappeared and was AWOL on the last day.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: You can't measure work ethic and Russell just doesn't get it. I'll be amazed if he lasts the year as the Raiders starting QB. This latest move damages his credibility severely. He's only for the most desperate of owners needing a back-up to the back-up.
tusken10: With this news, I don't see any reason why JaMarcus Russell should be on any fantasy roster even in the deepest of leagues. This guy needs to spend as much time possible on the field and in the class room and it just isn't going to happen. Make sure to grab Jeff Garcia as he should start more games this year for the Black and Silver.
According to ESPN, Vikings RB Adrian Peterson expects the team to use many different formations in 2009, including the Wildcat offense. "We picked up (Florida speedster) Percy Harvin, so we're going to be running a lot of different scat formations ... maybe Wildcat," Peterson said. "We might just throw that in there some. So, you guys just might see me on Sundays throwing the ball, too."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Peterson is going to be extremely hard to stop this upcoming season, as Percy Harvin is going to help that Vikings rushing attack avoid a ton of eight-man fronts. With Harvin in that Reggie Bush type role, 18 or more scores out of AD wouldn't surprise me in 2009.
Tavaner: I totally agree with Smitty's excitement over AP this season. We could be in for a treat when this offense takes the field. All the fantasy players, offensive and IDP, get a boost if Favre joins the club. Of course, the idp players facing Favre will get the same boost.
According to FoxSports.com, Raiders WR Juaquin Iglesias is already forming a strong bond with QB Jay Cutler.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Keep in mind that Cutler knows how to turn a rookie receiver into a veteran-like receiver. Eddie Royal caught an amazing 91 passes last season as a rookie and I firmly believe that most of that had to do with Cutler, not Royal. Don't get me wrong, Royal is a talented receiver, but I honestly feel that those expecting big things out of Royal this year will be extremely disappointed. Will Iglesias be Cutler's new Eddie? It's tough to say this early, but he is worth targeting if the price is right. I also like Earl Bennett this year. Bennett is the young veteran on that team now. Johnny Knox is another rookie, aside from Iglesias, to keep an eye on. Someone over in Chicago is going to benefit from the acquisition of Cutler!
Tavaner: Cutler will make one of these guys, maybe more, fantasy relevant. I have no clue which ones it will be but so far, every WR has been mentioned in a positive light during the OTA's. I call that business as usual. Trust your gut if you are drafting a Chicago WR, Bennett and Hester are my fav's but we won't know until the pads come on and the hitting begins.
tusken10: There were recent reports that 5th round pick WR Johnny Knox has been the better rookie WR so far. This story just confirms that no one knows how the Chicago WRs will shake out this year. At least one Bears wide out will have a very good year, it's just a matter of figuring out which one.
According to TwinCities.com, there's buzz that the Vikings might sign ex-Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison, 36, who is near the end of his career and has tender knees, to a one-year, low-end deal to provide competition for Sidney Rice.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: This doesn't put Harrison on my fantasy radar yet but he would be an option for a bye week fill in. I'm not sure he'd produce more than 45/500/4 but when bye weeks come he could help. I'd not add him as a WR4 so let someone else eat up a roster spot. My guess is he would be available on the waiver wire when you need him.
craphonso: This article was written by "Shooter" so I'll take it as merely a rumor at this point. If Harrison signs with the Vikes I'd have no problems using a late round pick on him in hopes of using him for spot duty.
tusken10: I find this a little hard to put much stock into this considering he was likely offered a better deal to stay with the Colts. But, if this happens I still don't know if I would use anything more than a late pick on him and hope for some helpful injury/bye week help. How the mighty have fallen.
According to WashingtonPost.com, Redskins RB Ladell Betts, who has already drawn praise from his coaches this off-season, should see more carries in 2009.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I'm not going to suggest that there is a running back controversy in Washington, because there is NOT, but Portis hasn't done himself any favors this off-season. Portis' attitude has reportedly become a problem for coach Jim Zorn and multiple sources have suggested that the runner shows very little respect to Zorn. While I'm not suggesting that dynasty leaguers who own Portis go trade him on the cheap, but I have a bad feeling that Portis' downfall is on the horizon. Betts is a must-own for Portis owners this year in my opinion. For more on Portis and why I think he might be a guy to trade before it's too late, check out Portis' most recent Player Spotlight.
Tavaner: I've heard this all before, this makes the third year in a row. It's like they dust off past articles when they have no new news. He had double digit touches twice all of last season. Betts can produce when he has the chance, but he's not much more than a late round handcuff.
tusken10: He has talent but he just won't get the carries as long Portis is healthy. However, he is a must handcuff for all Portis owners.
According to Seattle Times beatwriter Danny O'Neil, it's Butler -- not Branch -- who is most likely to be the X factor for the offense this year.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: This is the buzz that has been building for a time now. Here are a few of my notes on this rookie WR prior to the draft: 4.38 40 - quickness, burst and speed in pass routes - catches ball well - a slot WR who makes plays down field. Could be a better pro than D.Williams. He's got sleeper written all over him in an offense whose WR's have been challenged to stay healthy.
craphonso: I think in rookie Dynasty drafts Butler is a nice late 3rd round option or an excellent 4th round pick. I'd still avoid him in most standard redraft formats even as a late round flyer despite the report.
Gambler: Living in the Seattle area, I've been hearing a ton of buzz about how well Butler has been doing in camps. He's a guy I will continue to target in rookie drafts and one that I expect will perform well as a pro.
According to PFT, a league source reports that veteran WR Dennis Northcutt is telling teammates that he has been given permission to shop his services via trade. The Jaguars used three of their nine draft picks on wideouts: Mike Thomas in round four, Jarett Dillard in round five, and Tiquan Underwood in round seven. They also signed veteran Torry Holt, and Troy Williamson could finally be figuring out how to grasp a flying football with one or both of his hands, instead of letting it bounce off his helmet.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: The rookies must have impressed for the Jags to let him shop himself. Reports I've seen say Holt has looked good and is developing a rapport with QB David Garrard. Which makes him a high end WR3 for me. Whoever lines up across from Holt may get enough looks for bye week consideration but my gut is that the Jags will lean on the run whenever possible. Monitor the defense, you have to have a lead to lean on the run.
craphonso: This news raises not only the value of Holt and the rookies primarily Thomas and Dillard but also veteran Mike Walker. Walker appears to be healthy and will try to put together a season withtout injuries. He is a talented sleeper and has the inside track at starting gig opposite Torry Holt.
According to the New York Daiy News, the Giants just released news that weakside linebacker Michael Boley underwent arthroscopic surgery today to repair a torn labrum in his hip. Boley’s recovery is expected to take between 8-to-10 weeks, which means Boley could miss most of training camp, putting his status for the season opener in doubt. Gerris Wilkinson now presumably will fill in until Boley recovers.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Dynasty owners need not worry. If you held onto Boley after last season, he is in a great situation and could return to LB2 status. If you are drafting in dynasty, let him fall and scoop him up in later rounds as a LB4/5. If you are in a redraft idp league leave him on the waiver wire or use a late round pick on him. Wilkinson is no slouch but he'll be pushed by Bryan Kehl for playing time. I'd pass on both for fantasy purposes unless I was in a deep league and Kehl would be my choice.
On his personal website, Lions RB Kevin Smith blogged that he intends on training hard to be ready when camp starts in late July. "For me being in shape and ready to go is a must. It’s not even an issue." says Smith, and adds, "I feel I’m a tempo-setter, so I have to be in great shape and looking and feeling good for this training camp." He also envisions himself as "the lead dog" who will set the tempo and lead by example.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: I like him as much as X does. When I think of the next up and coming offense, my eyes look to Detroit, with Smith, Calvin, Stafford and Pettigrew. We won't know for sure until the later part of the season but if I'm rebuilding the Lions are one of the teams whose skill players interest me.
X: Smith is one of my favorite buy-low players heading into 2009, and although he plays for the Lions I expect a great season. Draft Smith as an RB2, but expect near RB1 numbers out of him.
Gambler: There's a lot to like about Kevin Smith. He came on strong towards the end of the year. The Lions have nowhere to go but up. They simply can't get any worse. The lack of any real competition at his position is also nice. Expect a lot of carries and good numbers from Smith this year.
According to PalmBeachPost.com, Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown has reportedly looked fit and faster than ever during the team's OTAs. Reportedly, Brown consistently beat his defense to the outside and he split out wide and pulled in a long touchdown pass on Saturday. He also reportedly took most of the snaps out of the Wildcat offensive attack.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Most of you already know that Brown is one of my biggest sleepers and bounce-back candidates heading into 2009. I just posted a Ronnie Brown article, where I predict a top 8RB season out of Brown in 2009. Give it a read!
Tavaner: Entering the second year since knee surgery, Brown's OTA performance has moved him up to a solid RB2 slot for me. His speed has returned and with Ricky Williams settling into the complement role or, at age 32, perhaps lost a step, Ronnie Brown seems ready to resume the lead back role for the Dolphins. While his ADP of a late 3rd rounder is a bit high for me, Brown will provide good production as a mid-low range RB2.
tusken10: I'm a believer and all you need to do is look at the numbers. His rushing totals went from 907, 1008, 602 (but was on pace for 1300+), and 916. He was the #1 fantasy player in 2008 for the first 7 weeks, last year's numbers are even more impressive when you consider that he had been rehabbing his knee for less than a year. I think round 3 is about right in that is where you should expect him to get taken, but he will easily outperform that spot.
Gambler: How many times over the years have I heard how great Ronnie Brown looks in the off season? Maybe he should take up a career in modeling if he always looks so great. The fact remains that Ronnie Brown has NEVER been able to handle the yearly load as a feature back in college or the NFL. Not once....ever. Let someone else ruin their season by taking this bust.
According to Yahoo, Giants GM Jerry Reese stated that Ahmad Bradshaw would be the team's fill-in tailback if Brandon Jacobs got hurt.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: I grabbed Bradshsaw early last year, envisioning this year's scenario. As NE Dirtdogs points out, that OL makes him a flex option in any league that allows 3RB's to start. I expect Bradsahw to be used similar to Ward last year,with equal or better production. If Jacobs misses any time the RBBC will continue and I'd keep a close eye on who the Giants RB3 is, as well as any RB traded (hello Ryan Grant) as the depth they have at RB continues to be impressive.
North End Dirtdogs: The NYG are now like the former Denver Broncos, in that the OL is so good that almost any RB can step in a produce big numbers. Derrick Ward is gone and now it looks like it is the explosive Bradshaw's time to shine. GM Jerry Reese has confidence in Bradshaw to produce if/when Jacobs goes down with his yearly injury, despite the presence of 2nd year man Danny Ware and rookie Andre Brown. Bradshaw should post RB1 numbers rushing/receiving if called upon to start. Even with Jacobs healthy, he could be flex worthy in PPR leagues.
According to Jerry McDonald of insideBayArea.com, the explosion is back in Raiders RB Darren McFadden, and he thinks that McFadden ought to be able to accomplish catching passes out of the backfield, in the slot and should give the Raiders something to hang their hat on in the passing game this season.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I have to agree with both Tavaner and Tusken on this one... McFadden has tremendous draft value right now in redraft formats and he has even more hidden value in dynasty leagues. Dynasty owners should attack him via trade and everyone should expect low-end RB2 type numbers in 2009.
Tavaner: McFadden's injuries are healed and there is nothing that builds confidence more than completing a few passes to your RB. Equally BIG for McFadden is the addition of blocking back Lorenzo Neal. McFadden's ADP in redrafts is at the 3/4 turn, player #39 or so. In dynasty/keeper formats it's closer to the 6/7 turn. Incredible value. He'll reward his owners with a low end RB1 kind of year at the cost of a RB2, or lower. Don't sleep on him, as he can produce 1,300 total yards with 9+ TDs. If you can acquire him in a dynasty league, do it, because his price is as low as it'll be for some time.
tusken10: If there is anything Oakland can do well, it's running the ball. They should rely heavily on their backs with McFadden getting the majority of work. I agree, now is the time to buy if you have any interest. He should be a very solid RB2 with potential for a lot more.
According to the St. Petersburg Times, Bucs TE Kellen Winslow is going to be used "extensively" in offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski's offense. "I've been very, very fortunate with the guys that I've had," Jagodzinski said. "I had Bubba Franks as a rookie (in Green Bay). I had Alge Crumpler (in Atlanta), now Jerramy (Stevens) and Kellen. I use those guys a lot. Quite a bit."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: It looks good for Winslow this year with the new OC and QB they'll be working with. Draft Winslow as a TE1 with confidence, he could be the most talented receiver on the team.
X: Tampa has very few options offensively to move the ball, so you have to believe Winslow will be a major part of this offense in 2009. He remains one of the top tight ends in the game and sits in my top 3 regardless of format.
According to Profootballtalk.com, free agent QB Brett Favre may have already signed with the Vikings and the signing might just be awaiting league approval.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
tusken10: As much as we would all like this circus to be resolved one way or another, Brett Favre is actually walking into a very good situation. The Minnesota Vikings are a very solid football team on all levels, and if Favre can stay healthy he would make for a great backup/situational QB2 and possibly a low QB1.
Gambler: We all know it's going to happen sooner or later. I do like Favre to have a comeback year with the Vikings and that running game they have. With a healthy arm, the sky is the limit this year.
North End Dirtdogs: I hope everyone is sitting down while reading this potential breaking news, because it is shocking! All kidding aside, this is just the next step in the Favre comeback drama and the news should surprise no one. Get ready for 24/7 Favre talk on ESPN!
According to Alex Marvez, of FOXSports.com, STL Rams QB Marc Bulger admits that the 2009 season may be his last chance with the team if he fails to perform.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: As X alludes to, the offensive line has been an embarrassment for that franchise but for some reason the relationship between a successful QB and an effective OL has been missed by management. Maybe new coach Steve Spagnuolo has some magic dust, but UFA C Jason Brown and rookie RT Jason Smith may not be enough to upgrade one of the NFL's weakest OL's and save Mark Bulger's career in StL. I'd leave Bulger on the wire for now but watch to see if the OL can improve to average. If it does he'd at least be a bye week fill in.
X: Bulger's issues the last few seasons are directly related to the offensive line, or lack thereof. I don't know of a single QB who would have been effective taking 75 sacks over the last 2 years. In spite of the drafting of Jason Smith, I expect more of the same from that line and Bulger - I'd hesitate to take him even as a QB2.
North End Dirtdogs: Once the QB to the Greatest Show on Turf, Bulger has not been a fantasy factor for the past couple of seasons. In fact, he's been pretty terrible in having thrown more INTs than TDs the past 2 seasons, as well as taking too many sacks and fumbles. A healthy SJax will help, but due to the lack of offense in STL, I don't expect Bulger to be anything more than a very low-end QB2/emergency fill-in. Bulger should finish the year as the starter, as there is no one better behind him on the depth chart, but you can expect STL to draft a QB early next offseason. I'm sure we will also hear more Michael Vick rumors to STL once he gets reinstated.
According to Pro Football Talk, Redskins RB Clinton Portis' attitude is starting to become a problem for coach Jim Zorn. Multiple sources have suggested to PFT that Portis shows very little or no respect to Redskins coach Jim Zorn. One source said: “Portis totally has no regard for [Zorn] and thinks he’s above everyone.”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Portis remains a top 12-14 overall pick in 2009 redraft leagues, but the running back will be 28 when the 2009 season begins - His downfall is certainly near. Shaun Alexander's final elite season was at the age of 28 and he fell off the face of the earth when he entered his 29-age season. Portis has carried the football over 2,000 times during his seven year NFL career. Sell-high in dynasty leagues and expect one more solid season in redraft leagues.
Tavaner: This is what happens when an owner treats a player as a friend. Zorn may be done this season as attitudes like that are infectious. Any questions why Portis was taken out within the 20s, or at the goal line, a few times last year? Expect more of the same this year, IMO. It's too bad, Zorn could have been a good coach, but you can't win with an owner who sabotages you. I'd take Smitty's advice on Portis for both types of leagues.
haimez40: I am not worried about Cliton Portis. He is the best RB option for the Redskins and nothing can change that at this point. No matter how Zorn and Portis get along things will work out. This is a non issue in my opinion at this point. Talent will prevail.
North End Dirtdogs: Portis has been a solid fantasy RB for many years now, but I really think he is due for a major breakdown this upcoming season. I'm not saying he will be totally useless, but for a smaller RB with his physical style and career carries, I'm expecting some missed time. Ladell Betts and Anthony Alridge could see some decent playing time this season if/when Portis does begin to breakdown.
According to Houston Chronicle, SLB Brian Cushing "has been a starter since the day he stepped off the bus."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: SLB or not, I expect Cushing to produce LB3 numbers this year. Last year's gem, Zach Diles, will compete against Xavier Adibi for the WLB spot. With DeMeco Ryans anchoring the middle, this is a very talented LB corps with a lot of flexibility and depth.
According to AZCardinals.com's Darren Urban, Cardinals rookie RB Chris "Beanie" Wells could get the "go-slow treatment" to kickoff the 2009 regular season. Even though Wells is clearly the running back of the future in Arizona, Urban writes that Tim Hightower is determined to hang onto the starting job.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Getting the "go-slow treatment" is always a good thing for rookie runners. Usually when a rookie running back is shoved into the starting role right out of the gate, they breakdown by Week 12 or so and run right into that notorious rookie wall. If I had to guess, Wells will be a sneaky fantasy RB2 by Week 4 or 5 – I firmly believe that Beanie will be so solid during the second-half of the 2009 season he will be a top 10 overall pick in all 2010 drafts.
Tavaner: This is good news for Wells but it bears mentioning...Arizona ran the least of any team in the NFL last year. They pass almost twice as much as they run. Ken Whisenhunt may want to run the ball, Wells can run it, but can the OL run block? In redrafts he's going around the 6/7 split ahead of FWP. I'd rather have FWP. Dynasty wise he'll come off the board within the first three rookie picks. Just don't expect him to lead your redraft team to the promised land.
X: I'm not buying into this story. We are not talking about Wells supplanting an established veteran, he needs to beat out Tim Hightower, a second year player who is a mediocre RB and proved it last year with his meager totals. I continue to view Wells as the opening day starter and I think he is the one rookie RB who can carry the entire load of a running game on his back. The fact that Arizona passes a lot more than they run will keep him fresh enough to (hopefully) avoid that rookie wall.
haimez40: This is just for Wells motivation and to keep him humble. Adrian Peterson didn't start the year of as the starter either as a rookie and things worked out fine. Don't read to much into this for the value of either Cardinals RB at this point. Due to the Ohio State graduation timing the Cardinals really haven't had enough time to gauge what they even have in Wells at this point.
According to ESPN, Benjamin Brafman, attorney for Plaxico Burress, believes there will be no trial in the gun charge case until the spring of 2010.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: There is still the hearing in September to get through but it looks like Burress will be clear to play this year and should have this case resolved by training camps next year. A clear #1WR just hit the market and where he goes will lift the fortunes of one team. He'll also make the QB look good. Burress caught a lot of Eli's passes that were off the mark, something subsequent receivers have been unable to do. I believe Burress will step in without missing a beat, drama seems to drive him.
X: Goodell could very well weigh in on this whether or not it goes to trial next year, so I would hold off on investing too high a pick on Plax until he is cleared to play.
According to the Contra Costa Times, the Raiders are expected to "hang their hat" on Darren McFadden in the passing game while ironing out the kinks in their deep attack.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: McFadden owners can breath easier this year. He'll be a legit high end RB2 - 1200 total yards, 10 td's, with 35-40 receptions. He might not rush for 1000 yards but he will make plays.
X: With Heyward-Bey nursing multiple hamstring injuries during camps thus far, the Raiders deep passing attack is non-existent. That will translate into dump off passes to both McFadden and TE Zach Miller, and I expect both to have very good seasons.
North End Dirtdogs: McFadden went #1 in many rookie drafts last season and was a disappointment due to multiple toe injuries. From all accounts this offseason, the explosion is back and he could be ready for his breakout season. He should easily eclipse the 29 catches he had as a rookie and could be undervalued in drafts this season...especially in PPR leagues.
According to a story on Jaguars.com, writer Vic Ketchman has observed new Jaguars WR Torry Holt getting an inordinate amount of looks from QB David Garrard in practices. "If Holt has something left in the tank, and if he can stay healthy and keep his legs through the second half of the season, he could catch a lot of passes this season because I have no doubt Garrard will look his way," says Ketchman, "He’s exactly what Garrard needs, which is to say a trusted, veteran receiver of esteem."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Sell high if he starts out hot. He will be Garrard's safety outlet. I just don't believe his body will hold up for the year. As is, he's on the cusp of WR3/4.
X: Holt is one of those guys you can sneak in as a later draft pick that could turn into fantasy gold this season.
haimez40: I don't expect Holt to last all year without injury, but he is going really late in drafts. He is a great late round pick with upside. If he has a good start to the season I would trade him for a younger consistent player. Playing all those years on the Rams concrete surface has destroyed his knees.
North End Dirtdogs: I don't expect Holt to return to his glory days in STL, but I think he might have a Derrick Mason-like season in him. Also, his veteran presence will rub off on the younger WRs in Jacksonville. I believe this is also good news for Garrard owners now that he has a sure-handed veteran go-to WR.
Judd Zulgad, from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, says he would not be surprised if QB Tarvaris Jackson was let go if the Vikings sign Brett Favre.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: Tavaris was hand-picked by Childress, so I'm not sure I buy into this just yet. That said, none of these Vikings QBs, including Favre if he signs, is a fantasy starter. At best Rosenfels and Favre are QB2 material and the rest, including Jackson, should not be on your radar.
North End Dirtdogs: This article is just one writer's opinion, but it makes sense. The Vikings just signed Sage Rosenfels to a decent contract and Booty makes the least out off all the QBs. A Brad Childress favorite, Jackson has never really lived up to being the starting QB of the Vikings, but would probably get picked pretty quickly if released. I guess you could add him to the list of people hating Favre for making yet another comeback!
According to Chron.com, Texans RB Arian Foster is confident in OTAs and is comfortable in that Texans' offense. “It’s a one-cut system, and I’m a one-cut back,” Foster said. “I feel like I can compete with any back in this league.”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: While Foster is currently battling for a roster spot, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up grabbing that No. 2 running back spot in Houston before the season kicked off. He is a beast at 6-1, 225 pounds, and is a one-cut back just like he said. My advice is to pick this rookie up in deep dynasty leagues, especially if you own Steve Slaton.
X: Right now I like Chris Brown to be the primary backup to Slaton, but he is about as durable as gingerbread. If you own Slaton in seasonal leagues, I wouldn't advise wasting a pick to handcuff him to anyone, but I agree with Smitty that Slaton owners in dynasty should give Foster a hard look.
According to DaytonDailyNews.com, Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco won’t be staying with QB Carson Palmer and his family in Southern California. “As soon as I walked in the door from work the other day, she just gave me that look,” Palmer said. “I’m like, ‘Whoa, calm down. It’s media stuff. It’s Chad being Chad.’ I told her, ‘Don’t worry. I haven’t made any commitments to having to clear out the boxes in the (spare) room to make a bed for him. Don’t worry about that. It’s not going to happen.’ ”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Why can't this guy (Chad) just lock himself in a room and play Madden? He remains a bargain grab in 2009 yearly leagues - If his ADP rises, he will become too risky to count on. That said, I doubt his value rises much this off-season, so he should remain a low-risk/high-reward type player all off-season long.
North End Dirtdogs: Maybe Chad wanted to move with Palmer so he'd have someone to play Madden with! Call me optimistic, but I think Ochocinco returns to being a low-end WR1 this upcoming season. He seems to be more dedicated to training and more importantly...he is in a contract year.
According to Yahoo.com, Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco wants a fight set-up between himself and NFL Network's Solomon Wilcots. "Chad has dropped more balls than Jay-Z has dropped albums." Wilcots said responding to Chad's comments. "But we certainly can get in the ring ... Let's do it, brah! Let's do it. Ya better ask somebody, Chad." Chad triggered all of this with a tweet on his twitter acount, which read: "They always find a way to say something negative no matter how focused i am, damn Solomon Wilcox, i want to fight him now, somebody set it up."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Wilcots has been somewhat critical of Chad as of late, which is why Ocho has been busy tweeting about him. Ochocinco certainly has good draft value heading into August drafts, as he can be had at the cost of a fantasy WR3, but my advice is not to value him any higher than a fantasy WR3, even if his ADP starts to climb. He is valuable right now because of his low ADP - If his draft value climbs, that changes everything in my book.
According to ProFootballTalk.com, NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy has announced that Browns WR Donte Stallworth has been suspended indefinitely by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell who said Stallworth has “caused irreparable harm to the victim and his family, your club, your fellow players and the NFL.” Speculation is swirling that reinstatement may not come until Stallworth's entire 2-year house arrest term has been completed.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: If you own Stallworth, drop him.
haimez40: Donte Stallworth is a wasted roster spot if you still haven't dropped him. Even without the off the field situation he was not producing.
According to Mike Triplett, of The Times-Picayune, Saints WR Marques Colston will catch another 10-12 touchdowns in 2009.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Colston is recovering from off-season microfracture surgery, but the stud has reportedly looked great so far in workouts. Colston is young and his microfracture procedure was thought to be very minor compared to most, so don't knock him down even a single spot in your personal set of dynasty rankings. Colston remains inside my top five for wide receivers entering 2009 and beyond.
haimez40: All Colston has to do is stay healthy. These numbers will be no problem if he plays for the full season, and even if he misses 2-3 games he has the talent to pull this off with Drew Brees at QB.
According to a story on ProFootballTalk.com, sources close to the Broncos are saying they are not going to trade WR Brandon Marshall. They do admit, however, that owner Pat Bowlen's personal interference in the situation may make it more difficult to make amends with Marshall since the star receiver is under the impression Bowlen would grant the request to be traded. Marshall even went so far as to say goodbye to Bronco fans on his personal website.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I love how on Marshall's blog users were saying goodbye right back at him. Cutler may have been able to demand a trade, but I have a feeling Marshall isn't going anywhere. Like X keeps saying, he is a good buy-low guy in dynasty leagues, but sit tight if you own Marshall already -- You won't get much for him if you try and sell-low.
Tavaner: Marshall has no leverage and loses a year towards FA if he does not report to camp within a certain time frame. Without a CBA he won't even be an UFA next year. How will he save face?
X: This is a game of chicken that Marshall can't win and with each day that passes his value continues to decline ever so slightly. As I have said before, if you can get fair value in trade then go ahead and move him, otherwise you need to sit tight.
According to a San Francisco Chronicle report, Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell has announced a plan to host his own minicamp at an undisclosed location before the start of training camp in July. According to Russell, "everybody that plays receiver and wears the (Raiders') uniform" will be invited to participate.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: I suppose this is a good thing and I shouldn't be so cynical, but something feels too manufactured about this. Russell is not exactly known for his leadership skills or work ethic, so the sudden interest in putting extra effort in is strange. Bottom line, Russell only has fantasy value for those in dynasty leagues with deep rosters, and even then only until something better comes along. Jeff Garcia will almost certainly win that job, maybe by opening day.
According to reports, Bears RB Matt Forte is still out of action during off-season workouts. Forte has been battling a hamstring injury.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I imagine Forte will be fine in a week or two, but you never know with hamstring injuries. Hopefully this one doesn't linger into the preseason - We will surely keep you posted!
Tavaner: Hamstring injuries during the season tend to linger making a player a day to day question mark through 4-6 weeks. Monitor Forte through training camp and if it's lingering I'd drop him a few spots or make sure I have other viable starting options.
craphonso: Hamstring injuries can be tricky, but at this point in the off-season this news does not drop him a bit in my rankings. Forte is in for a big year.
haimez40: Hamstring issues can linger, but at this point in the offseason it shouldn't be a problem. I do expect Kevin Jones to be more involved with carries this year though. Forte's value should stay the same for now.
According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Bears QB Jay Cutler had nothing but good things to say about his new wide receivers in Chicago. When asked if the team had a No. 1 wide receiver, Cutler said, "I think we've got one. I think we've got one in Devin, and I think Earl is going to be dangerous on the back side as well." When asked if he was lobbying for Chicago to acquire disgruntled Broncos WR Brandon Marshall in a trade, Cutler said he was "100 percent happy" with what they've got.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I'm with X on this one. I like Hester, and he will certainly make big plays for the Bears in 2009, but I don't see him ever being consistent from a fantasy perspective. If I had to guess, Greg Olsen and Earl Bennett will be the best of the bunch over in Chicago this season, but I also really like Johnny Knox for the long-term.
Tavaner: Devin Hester is a boom or bust WR that I've tended to avoid so far this year as a WR4. Cutler can hit him deep and has the arm to get Hester the ball on quick hits which will allow him to use his open field talents. A true #1? That is pre- camp coach speak, without the unspoken "...if the stars align, I hope." Hester's value got a boost from Cutler but WR4 is where that places him, for me.
X: In spite of the praise I'm not buying Hester as a true #1 receiver, and for fantasy purposes I don't see him as anything more than a WR4/flex player.
haimez40: I think Hester will be a sneaky #3WR this year for fantasy teams, and a solid bye week player. The big play ability will make him worth taking a gamble on earlier than most rankings have him sloted.
tusken10: I'm definitely higher than most others concerning Hester, but I see major upside here. He's made steady progress over the past two seasons and now has a QB that truly can make every single throw needed to take advantage of his speed. I see him as a fantastic WR4, and a solid WR3 or flex.
According to a story on Tampbay.com, Buccaneers coaches are thoroughly unimpressed with their veteran quarterbacks thus far and have decided to accelerate rookie QB Josh Freeman's development. Much of that decision is based on Freeman's improvement over the last few weeks, especially with his decision making skills and huddle presence. Said QB coach Greg Olson, "He didn't seem nervous in the huddle at all last week and that was a great sign. He made some big throws as well." When asked if he thought Freeman could start opening day, he responded, "It's not out of the question."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: It is not real surprising that neither Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich are setting themselves apart in camp. In reality, they were merely here keeping the seat warm for Freeman, though most thought it wouldn't happen until the end of this season or next season at the earliest. In seasonal leagues, none of these guys should be on your draft list – but bump Freeman up your cheat sheet if you play in a dynasty league.
haimez40: This is great news for people who have had rookie drafts already and took a late flier on Freeman. I don’t consider him close to Stafford or Sanchez as far as NFL ready, but a lot of his faults coming out of Kansas State are fixable. He didn’t have great talent around him, and he forced a lot of throws. Most of his faults are coachable, and could actually be the type of situation when a player is better suited for the NFL than college game. I am keeping Tampa WR in the same spot for rankings, because none of these QB candidates are much to write home about anyways.
tusken10: While this is good news for Freeman's value, this may be bad news for Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow owners. If Freeman starts, you have to downgrade all receivers in Tampa in seasonal leagues while giving a slight uptick to Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham as the Bucs will surely employ a conservative offense. Still, I don't see any Bucs QBs worth a roster spot to start the season.
According to reports from the Tampa Tribune, MLB Barrett Ruud ended his holdout from voluntary offseason workouts. Ruud, the Bucs' leader in tackles the past two seasons, is entering the final year of a contract.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: I had just moved Ruud down in the IDP rankings because he's missed all voluntary work this year. There is a new defensive system being installed in Tampa this year, one that potentially increases his already top tier IDP value. After learning he's kept in contact with his positions coach all is well, again. Barrett Ruud, Jon Beason, and Patrick Willis are interchangeable at the top of the LB rankings, dynasty and redraft, regardless of scoring. They are that good.
X: Ruud finished with 137 tackles last season and enters this year as my #2 LB just behind Willis, regardless of format.
According to ProFootballTalk, the trade rumors continue to roll in regarding the potential landing spot for Broncos WR Brandon Marshall. PFT is reporting that Marshall could be shipped to the Browns. The deal is rumored to include Josh Cribbs and possible draft picks. The Ravens were the first team thought to be in the running to land the troubled receiver.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I can see the Browns shooting this rumor down by no later than Wednesday afternoon. I know I'm in the minority on this one, but I think Braylon Edwards is just as talented as Marshall, so as Zach said, there is no way the Browns would trade away Edwards just to bring in Marshall. They both definitely couldn't coexist in Cleveland either, especially with only Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson tossing out pigskins.
Zach: If this were to go down, that would mean that the Browns would likely trade Braylon Edwards. I have a strong feeling that there is nothing to this rumor. Why trade Edwards away, a top 10WR talent, just to get another equally talented receiver back, but one with more off-the-field baggage. I don't buy it.
Tavaner: Talk about sell low. A KR/PR/WR and picks for a stud? Denver holds ALL the cards in this one and it's no biggie to hold onto a disgruntled WR who HAS to play for a new contract and may not be a UFA if a new bargaining agreement is not reached. Marshall continues to get bad advice and make poor choices, eventually even those aspects begin to show up on the field.
haimez40: I do not buy into this rumor at all. Cleveland doesn't want to pay Braylon Edwards, and Marshall's main complaint is money. If Denver ever wants to trade Marshall now is the time, because time is ticking. It is only a matter of time until another off the field problem.
Broncos WR Brandon Marshall had this to say on his official Website: "To whom it may concern. Life is filled with change, and where I am in my life now change is probably best. It’s hard leaving an organization ran by one of the best owners in all of sports, and someone who’s been there for me through my ups and downs. The hardest thing was hearing Mr. B wish me luck in the future, but we both came to the conclusion that this is probably the best thing for me to grow on and off the field. I thank the Denver fans who embraced my emotion and play on the field and showing me love every time I step outside my door."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: It sounds like the Broncos are going to attempt to move the receiver, but it's tough to say what is really going on in Denver right now. Expect to see all kinds of conflicting reports surface in the coming days, if not hours. We will keep you posted each time news breaks on this matter.
Zach: Brett Favre has to be upset about Brandon Marshall grabbing all of the headlines today! To be completely honest, I don't know what to make of this situation yet. Like Smitty said, a ton of reports are going to surface soon and all of them will suggest something different. This thing is just getting started. Marshall is a great buy-low candidate right now, especially in dynasty leagues.
Tavaner: I'm just not buying it. Can't wait to hear what Bowden, the owner of the Broncos has to say when responding to this...as if it's true, he undermined his value for Denver. Why give more than I have to if you have to move him?
X: Wow, this story is running at light speed - every few hours there is more coming out. If you own Marshall, sit tight with him until this is settled, I can't see his value dipping any lower and in reality it shouldn't because he is just too talented. If you can get fair value, by all means pull the trigger, but don't sell low.
According to CarolinaGrowl.com, Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart has been nursing sore Achilles, but the runner suggests that he will be ready for training camp.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: We knew there was something going on with Stewart, aside from his ankle. Back on June 8th, we reported that Stewart was suffering from an ankle injury and that he would be out until possibly the start of training camp. We also mentioned that we had fears that he was nursing more than an injured ankle. We were right. Stewart claims that he will be fine once training camp starts, but this definitely deserves monitoring.
Zach: As Smitty said, we feared there was more to Stewart's ankle injury. An Achilles injury can often follow another foot, ankle or knee injury, as players often overcompensate when healing from the previous injury. This is apparently what is going on with Stewart (from previous toe injury). I'm not extremely worried at this point, but it's finally nice to know what is really going on. No one misses the kind of time Stewart has for a small ankle injury. We will keep all of you updated on his health in the coming days and weeks. Hopefully Stewart is fine.
Tavaner: I'm not as confident as Stewart is, that he'll be ready for training camp. A sore achilles, if that is all it is, will prevent him from doing the kind of cardiovascular work he'll need for camp. He risks a tear. The coaches praise of RB Mike Goodson, will pressure him to participate. This is a proverbial rock and a hard place situation. Here's hoping he gets solid medical and personal advice.
haimez40: I am getting nervous about Stewart's ability to stay healthy. He came into the league with an ankle injury and a history. I'm not saying he should be dropped in rankings or traded, but keep an eye on the situation and be aware this could get ugly fast. He has the talent to be a stud when healthy.
According to a report in the NY Daily News, Giants WR Sinorice Moss has been the standout player in OTA's and mini-camp practices so far. “It’s very exciting,” Moss said after today's practice. “I had some minor setbacks my first year. I got injured. Things happen. I still had a positive attitude, and still to this day have a positive attitude every time I step in this locker room, to go out there and show these coaches why I’m here on this team.” Offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride has also reportedly named Moss a starter already.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Zach: ...And then he pulled his hamstring later that day. The injury might not be all that severe, but this kills that touch of momentum he had going on. Maybe this won't linger - We will keep you posted.
Tavaner: This sounds like sportswriter filler. If Gilbride had said anything quotable his words would have been in the article. Moss is among a group of players that will compete for time and likely move in and out of the lineup based on match-ups and performance. At this point Moss can sit on the waiver wire, everyone looks good in shorts and T's.
X: I still don't know that I would make Moss anything more than roster-fill at this point, and I don't necessarily see a standout at the position yet with Plaxico Burress gone. From a dynasty perspective I think both Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden are the guys to own - both are worthy of a late first, early second round pick in rookie drafts.
tusken10: I agree, I don't think Moss is anything more than a waiver wire pickup at best. The Giants have a big hole to fill (no pun intended) with Plax gone, but they drafted a lot of receivers (Nicks, Barden, Beckum) this past year and there just aren't enough footballs to go around.
According to various reports, Browns WR Donte Stallworth has agreed to plead guilty to DUI manslaughter in exchange for a 30-day prison sentence, 2 years of house arrest, 10 years probation and 1,000 hours of community service. The deal also involves a financial settlement with the family of the deceased victim which will ultimately prevent a wrongful death lawsuit from being filed against him.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: Stallworth had little value prior to this news and has even less now with a suspension looming. It also remains to be seen what steps the Browns will take - my guess is they will cut him. If you are looking for a dynasty sleeper at WR, Brian Robiskie is the one to target from the Browns.
According to Cincinnati.com, Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco says he plans to stay with quarterback Carson Palmer’s family in July to make up for the lost time of the pair not working together much during the off-season.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Zach: I'm with Tavaner on this one. Chad is a bargain right now and he can be had as a fantasy WR3. If that changes and Chad starts to again command high-end fantasy WR2 type value, I say take a pass, but I don't see that happening given the early depth at wide receiver this fantasy season. I am not extremely high on Ochocinco in dynasty formats, but I like him a lot right now in yearly leagues. Hopefully Chad shows up to Palmer's house!
Tavaner: Want to build chemistry on the field? Living with someone sure seems a way to fast track that process. This merely validates an earlier assertion that Chad will return to WR1 status. He's still going for a WR3 price in drafts, sit back and reap the rewards of a WR1 in a WR3 draft position.
X: Someone ought to make this into a reality show. Chad is doing and saying all the right things this off season, and it should translate into a bounce back year on the field. Tav is right, with his current price tag, there is very little downside to drafting him this season.
North End Dirtdogs: I never thought they would make a sequel to a crappy movie like "You, Me & Dupree", especially not one starring Ochocinco! All kidding aside, I think Chad is really trying to give 100% this season and value continues to climb with a positive offseason thus far.
According to PFT, Broncos WR Brandon Marshall is signed through 2009, and while financial considerations for missing a mini-camp are manageable, a training camp hold out would cost more than $90,000 for the first day and increasing at roughly $17,000 per day thereafter. Then there’s the requirement that a player under contract report 30 days before the start of the regular season or forfeit a year of accrued service. This would prevent Marshall from becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2010, since he would have only three years, not four. Of course, Marshall also won’t be an unrestricted free agent if he shows up and if there’s no CBA extension by next March. Still, that factor falls beyond his control; blowing his shot at unrestricted free agency due to a training-camp holdout would be on Marshall, and/or his agent.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: I'm not buying any of the rumors, yet. The Broncos do not have to move Marshall and his absence would not strengthen the team. I believe the best he can hope for is a bump in salary and a promise to re-negotiate during the season or trade him before next years draft. This drama is right up Marshall's alley, one that could continue for almost a year. His value in dynasty is bound to take a hit but he's not quite at the buy low stage. He could reach that mid-season or near your legues trading deadline. Otherwise, wait till next February or so to take advantage of nervous owners.
According to reports, there are rumors floating around that suggest that Broncos WR Brandon Marshall could be traded to the Ravens.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: We will try to confirm this info, but the Broncos did just sign Brandon Lloyd. A move to Baltimore could be a good thing for the receiver. Flacco is a good quarterback and he will only get better – A move like this could speed his career along. Stay tuned.
Tavaner: With the lull between now and the opening of training camps in late July, expect the trade rumors to be hot and heavy. Marshall has no leverage and is only hurting himself. Without a CBA he won't even be an UFA next year. He's between a rock and a hard place and I'd imagine the Bronco's owner has had enough. Stay tuned to the Marshall soap opera if you like, but I feel he'll still be playing his home games at Mile High Stadium.
X: It looks like "Baby T.O." is getting ready to dig in to force himself out of town. Cutler proved it can be done and that has apparently opened the door for Marshall. The Broncos are imploding right in front of our eyes.
According to MLive.com, "The coaching staff is almost giddy in anticipation of what this kid is capable of... What nobody knew - or could know - before the draft is how good his football instincts really were and how they would translate so smoothly to the NFL level."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Hopefully you've already snagged S Louis Delmas in your rookie dynasty draft, (or Moore or Chung) but if you have an upcoming idp draft put this guy near the top of your list after the known stud safeties have gone off the board. He can cover, hit, tackle, defend the pass, has great recovery speed and he'll likely be on the field quite a bit each Sunday. In another article he stated, "I have the playbook down." His ADP is at the top of the 6th round (#62) in combined rookie drafts but his talent level/situation puts him in the top 12 ipd rookies this year. He'll make an impact as a rookie. Tackle heavy leagues will love this guy, who could approach 100 total tackles for the year, with a 70/30 split, a mid-high end DB2.
According to Adam Schefter of NFL.com, WR Brandon Marshall asked Broncos owner Pat Bowlen to trade him during their much publicized meeting this past Friday. It does not appear that Bowlen is willing to grant him his wish, at least not yet, and reportedly told Marshall to take some time to reconsider.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: U-G-L-Y That's the situation in Denver at the moment. As talented as Marshall is I see him as a prima dona. If I thought I could move him at a fair price, I would. We never know, maybe some team would come up with a package that Denver would accept AND have the salary cap room to fit Marshall's ego, err, contract demands. I look for Denver to lure him back, at their numbers (with a small bump), after guaranteeing not to franchise him next year. In the meantime, let me introduce you to WR Kenny McKinley, my choice to step into his vacated WR position. Though I thought it would take another year.
X: To say the Broncos have had a nightmarish off season would be an understatement - here we go again with another high profile player wanting out. Marshall's value could skyrocket in the right situation, but it does depend on where he lands. This one should get interesting over the next several weeks, especially considering the fines will start piling up if he misses mandatory camp time.
Gambler: If you've been reading my takes for a while, you know this is what I believed would happen all along. This is a GOOD thing for Marshall owners if he can pull a "Cutler" and force his way off that sinking ship. Hang on Marshall owners! It's going to be a bumpy ride, but in the end he will produce no matter where he plays.
Edgar Thompson, from the Palm Beach Post, notes that 2nd year QB Chad Henne has looked good while Chad Pennington is away at his sister's wedding.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Qb Chad Henne's value in dynasty continues to climb, however, Bill Parcell won't let a QB controversy distract this team, especially with the number of veterans on it. Unless or until the Dolphins are out of the running, I feel Chad Pennington gives Miami the best chance of winning. Barring injury, I don't see a change happening at the QB position unless it happens in the beginning of the year. Any later and doubt arises about management's outlook for the team.
tusken10: Henne didn't put up the spectacular numbers in college that one would expect from a 3 year starter, but he's experienced and has the skill set to be a solid NFL starter. Definitely one to grab now in dynasty leagues as he should be the full time starter in Miami in 2010 despite the drafting of Pat White. I see Henne becoming a good QB2 option but he will never be considered an 'elite' QB in fantasy or otherwise.
North End Dirtdogs: It’s not a well kept secret that this is going to be Pennington's last season as the starting QB for MIA. It might not even be a full season, as Henne has been practicing well and there are rumors he could take over at some point this season if Penninton struggles. Pat White is still a work in progress, as he has struggled at mini-camps thus far. Dynasty owners should be stashing Henne now, and might even be practice squad eligible in some leagues.
According to DenverPost.com, Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno took all of the first-team snaps in no-huddle drills on Sunday.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Moreno should win the starting job by Week 1. Even if he doesn't, the rookie should still get a majority of the carries right out of the gate. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Moreno rushed for over 1,000 yards and had 8-10 total touchdowns during his first NFL season.
Tavaner: It's only a matter of time. Moreno in that offense will make every fantasy owner very happy.
According to blog site WaitingForNextYear.com, WR Braylon Edwards' "unspecified injury" reporting during practices last week happened during a pick-up game of basketball a few weeks ago. Edwards has been held out of OTA practices recently and the injury does not appear to be serious. It is unknown whether there is a provision in his contract preventing him from these types of activities.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Last year it was his foot, while running a barefoot race against Stallworth, who had cleats on. Edwards needs the reps. He did not get them last year and, imo, it showed. He doesn't fall far in rankings for me yet, as options he is clustered with have their own set of issues. Currently his ADP is top of the 3rd. I'll leave him there unless he misses more than a week of training camp.
X: I hesitated to even post this, but I do think it speaks to Braylon's commitment and dedication, or lack thereof, to football. Yes, athlete's play other sports and injuries happen, but some of the knocks on Braylon are this very thing - that he is not as committed as he should be to a team and game paying him millions of dollars. Just another piece of information to keep in mind before you invest that high pick on Edwards.
According to the Denver Post, Broncos coach Josh McDaniels has named QB Kyle Orton his starter well before training camp opens on July 1. Chris Simms had also been competing for the job during the offseason.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: I like Kyle Orton. Orton had record of 21-12 while with Chicago, including a 15-2 record at home. The OL and he combined for 27 sacks last year, and the OL gave up an unknown number of hits on the QB. While Forte was a nice surprise last year, take a look at Orton's numbers. He wins. I'm skeptical about Daniels' long term viability but I believe that Orton could end up [b]the[/b] surprise QB of 2009. If my strategy is to build depth at the skill positions I'd be willing to risk Orton as a low end QB2 with major upside. In fact, I'll be so bold as to suggest for a late round pick, you can end up with a QB1 by seasons end. BTW - Denver's will give him something he's never had - protection from the OL and talent at WR.
X: Seems like Josh does not want a controversy at QB heading into full training camp this summer. I personally think Orton is a mediocre QB, so regardless of this early affirmation by the coach, I don't think Orton's job is nearly as untouchable as it would seem. That said, until we hear otherwise, consider Orton a viable #2 QB for your fantasy team in redraft leagues. And keep an eye on the Brandon Marshall situation - Orton's value would be greatly diminished without him to throw to.
According to Cleveland.com, Browns rookie RB James Davis has been impressive since starter Jamal Lewis has been sidelined. "He's really done a good job," said coach Eric Mangini. "He's picked up things quickly. He doesn't often repeat the same mistake the next day, which is positive. I've been extremely pleased with what he's done with his opportunity."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The sixth-round pick out of Clemson is one of this year's biggest dark horse rookie runners. I just posted a Player Spotlight on James Davis early this morning, suggesting that fantasy owners should take advantage of Davis' decreasing fantasy value. Davis has 4.4 speed and is truly the most talented running back on that Browns roster. If he can stay healthy and get a shot to start at some point, I firmly believe that he will have a strong finish to the 2009 fantasy football season.
Tavaner: James Davis is the guy I feel will emerge as the back up in Cleveland when all is said and done. He could earn 10-12 touches a game, potentially making him a flex option. If Jamal Lewis goes down for any length of time he could step in and claim more of the touches per game. Mangini prefers "his" type of player and his comments suggest that is just what Davis is. In redrafts, if you draft Lewis, consider Davis as a handcuff. Dynasty wise, I feel he's a first rounder with a short window to impact.
According to the Denver Post, WR Brandon Marshall walked into Dove Valley headquarters Friday afternoon for a private meeting with Broncos owner Pat Bowlen. After about an hour, he was seen leaving with packed boxes. Marshall did not show up at minicamp Saturday.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Brandon Marshall's fantasy value decreases each and every week, which is bad for those that already own him and good for those looking to buy-low. Marshall has a ton of risk attached to his name right now, especially for the 2009 season, but if you play in a dynasty league and do not own Marshall, consider making a move if the price is right. At the cost of a low-end fantasy WR2, the reward far outweighs the risk if you ask me. If you currently own Marshall, ride it out!
Tavaner: This is about Marshall's rookie contract and the fact he is in the final year of that contract. This is the only time he'll have any leverage. The irony is he is only hurting himself. As X points out this is a complex passing offense and Marshall needs the reps to maximize his on field value as his off field antics/dramas lower his appeal to other teams. Downgrade him in redrafts if he doesn't report to camp as I don't believe he has the discipline to fully rehab from his hip surgery on his own.
X: I'll simply repeat what I said in my previos post on Marshall; if he misses a lot of camp, it will affect his production this season. McDaniels' offense is fairly complex and all the offensive players need as much time in camp as possible. Keep an eye on this one.
Gambler: The nightmare off season in Denver continues. If Marshall can somehow force a trade like Cutler did, I see his value going up pretty fast. The Broncos seem to have another big problem on their hands.
According to DenverBroncos.com, Broncos WR Brandon Marshall was missing from the team's first day of mandatory mini-camp. Broncos head Coach Josh McDaniels had this to say on the matter: “He’ll be here today. We’re having a meeting later this afternoon, and again it’s something that we’re going to take care of and handle in house. He’ll be here later this afternoon but he was not here this morning.”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Some speculate that Marshall is going to hold out, as he is unhappy with his current deal. We shall see. If Marshall's value continues to fall, he might start becoming a bargain via trade in dynasty formats.
X: Holdouts are generally of no concern with veteran players - most simply want the time off from camp. In this case, with a new coach and offense being implemented, Marshall's stats could take a hit if there ends up being a holdout of any significance.
Gambler: I'm still hopeful Marshall can somehow get himself traded this year. Denver is going to be the new Detroit, and as a fan of Marshall I'd like to see him on a decent team. If he stays, it may be a tough statistical year for Marshall but don't sell on his talent. As soon as he's on a real team with a real QB, he's top 5 in the league.
According to a breaking news report on ESPN, the Atlanta Falcons have informed QB Michael Vick he will be released later today.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Unless you are in a deep dynasty league, I'd be patient. There are to many moving parts to this situation, including, like X said, reinstatement. He flat out lied to the commissioner, that will not be forgotten.
X: No real surprise here. Now the wheels are in motion for other teams to step up and try to sign Vick, keeping in mind he has not yet been reinstated by the NFL.
According to PewterReport.com, Buccaneers quarterbacks coach Greg Olson had this to say about QB Luke McCown and the team's QB situation: "The difficult thing for Luke is that he spent the years in the previous system. He was very comfortable in that system. Now he has had to learn an entirely new terminology. Really there is no difference between him and Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson, or Byron Leftwich. They all started at ground zero."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: It's tough to get excited about any of the Tampa Bay quarterbacks this year. Don't be surprised if Byron Leftwich starts Week 1.
Tavaner: I'm pretty sure we are going to see three of the four QBs at some point this year. This has all the makings of a disaster in Tampa. Re-draft wise I'd avoid everyone unless absolutely necessary, including the RBs who will face stacked fronts. Though Winslow is sure to be the QB's best friend and actually gets a bump from me in this situation. The Bucs IDP players could be on the field quite a bit, something to keep in mind.
X: You are better off simply staying away from this situation in 2009 - way too unstable and not a lot of talent.
According to BuffaloBills.com, Bills RB Marshawn Lynch has missed portions of the team's last two practices due to a foot injury. “He got stepped on and his foot kind of swelled up,” said coach Dick Jauron. ”So we sent him for x-rays and tests, and nothing is broken, but it was still swollen and sore.” X-rays on his foot came back negative.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Since Lynch is suspended for the first three games of the 2009 NFL regular season, he has time to break his hand if he wants. In all seriousness, Lynch is a tough guy to rank heading into August drafts. He has officially appealed his three-game suspension and could end up getting it reduced to 1-2 games. We will keep you posted on that. For now, treat Lynch like a fourth-round pick heading into yearly drafts, but don't hesitate to scoop him up in the fifth- to sixth-round range - Even if he doesn't get his suspension reduced, he can produce like a top 10-12RB in games played. Anything in the fifth-round or later is an extreme bargain, and again, that's with a three-game suspension.
Tavaner: In addition to Smitty's comments consider that he'll be a lot fresher come your fantasy playoffs than some other RBs, and the Bills face some very stiff winds and snow, in Buffalo, as the season progresses. He'll still get 2/3 of the carries and have a bit more running room with T.O. and Evans on the field at the same time. Great value.
According to a report on ESPN, a very candid Deion Branch has admitted he doesn't ever think his knee will be normal again. "You will never be back to normal once you have this type of procedure done. I actually feel stronger, but it's not normal," said Branch, "Something has been done that removed [parts] of my knee. My biggest thing is to continue to strengthen it." Branch turns 30 next month.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: This news kills any fantasy that value Branch had left. Fantasy owners need to keep an eye on Seahawks rookie WR Deon Butler. With Branch and Burleson both trying to battle back from injury, Butler could step up and surprise. Grabbing Butler in deep dynasty leagues is advised.
Tavaner: In dynasty leagues, I feel Butler is the guy to keep an eye on in Seattle. He is what they hoped they were getting with Branch. He'll be a solid underneath guy who could clean up when T.J.Housh gets doubled.
X: Branch's value has taken quite a hit since he tore his knee up early in 2008. At this point he is nothing more than a bench player/WR4 in my eyes, especially with this news.
Gambler: One of the most overrated WRs of all time, Branch is running on fumes. He's fighting for a starting spot in Seattle, but would only be the 3rd to 4th option even if he does win the battle. Don't bother drafting him this year.
According to a story on the Chiefs website, new coach Todd Haley had the following to say about WR Dwayne Bowe: ”Dwayne’s another one who probably let himself go too far in the off-season so it’s been a long road back. That’s a lot of work when you’re trying to lose 20-25 pounds. There is a lot going on right now." Haley reportedly has a lot of the team losing weight.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I have to agree with X on this one - I expect Bowe to be fine by August. Bowe has the ability to be a consistent top 10WR in this league.
Tavaner: 25 pounds!!! About 255!?!? Maybe he wants Gonzo's old postition? Speed is not his game so add my voice to the chorus, he'll be fine. Now let me sound a discordant note, losing that much weight too quickly can weaken your body in ways its impossible to predict. I'd monitor this situation closely if you are looking at Bowe around the 2/3 turn as he could be slow out of the gate. Not the smartest move to come into OTA's so out of shape when your new head coach is installing a passing offense. I consider this a red flag, but that's me.
X: Sounds like Bowe is around 255 pounds, which is a significant gain from the 230 pound weight reported on his profile. Don't worry about this too much from a fantasy perspective, these guys tend to get back into shape pretty quickly - the time to worry is if this is still an issue in July.
According to the NY Daily News, the Jets have signed their rookie QB to a five year deal worth just over 50 million dollars - $28 million of that in guarantees. That would make Sanchez, the fifth overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft, the highest paid player in Jets history.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: Good news for Sanchez and the Jets. One of the more important aspects for rookie players, but QBs in particular, is getting into camp on time. If you are a dynasty player, Sanchez is worth a look in the first round of your rookie draft - redraft players need not have him on their draft lists.
According to SignOnSanDiego.com's Kevin Acee, Chargers WR Vincent Jackson could make a push this season to be "considered one of the league's best receivers."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: While I don't think Jackson will be an elite receiver in 2009 and beyond, he definitely has top 15-20 fantasy upside at the receiver position. I wouldn't even be shocked if he had a cup of coffee once in a while with those around the 10-14 range, but in the end I see him as a 15-20 guy. Heading into this upcoming fantasy season, Jackson will make a fine fantasy WR3, or a high-risk/high-reward fantasy WR2.
Tavaner: Like everyone else I loved what I saw Vincent Jackson do last year; 1098/7 was not an accident. He's clearly Rivers favorite WR and even with a healthy LT and Gates coming back, Jackson should get more red zone looks this year. The mismatch is too much to ignore. Top 15 this year, he'll half that next year, imo. 1000/11 (+/-1). If Gates or LT are sidelined for any time, Jackson could step in (and remain) as the #2 target in SD this year and 1200/12 would not be unrealistic, imo. Don't sleep on his confidence, the QB's trust in him, and the move towards a more pass oriented offense in the near future.
Gambler: As San Diego starts adjusting to a life without Tomlinson, Jackson is coming of age at the right time. The second half of last year showed what we can expect from this stud in the future. I see him in the WR8 to WR12 area for the next few years.
According to Yahoo Sports, Giants RB Brandon Jacobs could get more carries in 2009. “We have depth at that position that we like … but I would think Brandon will get some more carries, especially if he can stay healthy,” Giants general manager Jerry Reese said.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Jacobs owners have to love hearing this, but keep in mind that the beast of a runner could be the kind of running back that does better with less. He can't score 10+ touchdowns if he isn't on the field. Jacobs only played 11 games in 2007, rushing the football 202 times for 1,009 yards and 6 total scores... in 2008, Jacobs played just 13 games and ran the ball 219 times for 1,089 yards and 15 total scores. Like Marion Barber, roughly 220 carries is just about right for Jacobs - It would at least give him a shot at playing more than 12-13 games in 2009, which in the end translates into more touchdown opportunities.
Tavaner: Grab Brandon Jacobs with confidence as your #2 RB but be sure to handcuff him to Bradshaw, Brown, or Ware. That RB2 battle will be one of the more interesting camp battles to watch. The later two (Brown & Ware) are interesting sleeper options in their own right but carry more value in dynasty leagues. In re-drafts, leave Brown and Ware on the wire for now until training camps begin, and roles become more defined.
X: Makes sense now that Derrick Ward is gone, but I still feel like Jacobs is an injury waiting to happen. More carries is a good thing, but I still don't see this guy as an RB1 unless you are in a 14 team league or larger.
According to ESPN.com, Seahawks TE John Carlson stood out during Wednesday's practice. Defensive backs were reportedly bouncing off the tight end after he caught the football and turned down field.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Carlson could be the biggest surprise at the tight end position in 2009. He has tremendous ability and according to the ESPN report, the guy is going to play a lot more on third downs this upcoming season. Top 5-7 tight end numbers are very possible for the Seahawks tight end.
Tavaner: I'm a fan. A top ten TE you can wait on in redrafts as you build depth at other positions. Hasselbeck will love him.
X: I absolutely love Carlson at TE and the best part about this guy is he still flies way under the radar. As I wrote in the recent "Tough Fantasy Questions" article, you can fill out your entire fantasy roster in the early rounds and then pick up Carlson in the later rounds as your starting TE.
According to Drew Rosenhaus's twitter account, Ravens RB Willis McGahee had off-season knee surgery on both knees.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Way to get everyone even more down on the runner, Drew! This only makes me feel even more comfortable with my prediction that Rice will finish as a top 10-12 fantasy running back in 2009.
X: Yeah, this is just piling on at this point. I still believe McGahee could be a productive RB, but he is not in an ideal situation right now. And I'll reiterate that Rice owners need to handcuff Willis as insurance this season.
According to Rich Cimini, of The New York Daily News, NYJ RB Leon Washington strongly hinted he won't show up for training camp if his contract situation isn't taken care of.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
tusken10: Word is that Washington is asking for Maurice Jones-Drew money, which is laughable. Washington is an exciting player but he is not much more than a late round handcuff to either Jones or Greene and would need an injury before he could be a consistent fantasy contributor. However, he has top 20-25 potential in leagues that reward for kickoff and return yards.
North End Dirtdogs: Due to the fines he would incur and his current low salary, Washington might be bluffing to expedite a new agreement. Hopefully, a new deal will get worked out as Washington and rookie Shonn Greene would form a great "thunder and lightning" backfield for the foreseeable future in New York. Even if you are not a Washington owner, this is a situation to watch. If the Jets really think Washington will hold out, then they would probably be less inclined to trade Thomas Jones, thus creating a muddled NYJ backfield.
According to the Chicago Bears' official website, general manager Jerry Angelo had this to say: " I’ve been very pleased with his day-to-day attitude, and obviously it’s reflected with his work ethic and how he’s approached things. He’s rolled up his sleeves and he’s gone to work. He’s certainly not resting on any laurels. He’s come in here to prove himself and establish himself. I think we’re all impressed with that—I’m talking about coaches and players—because that’s the right way to do it. He’s got to earn his stripes here, and by showing up and doing the things that he’s doing every day, he’s doing it the right way."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Let me be among those (if not the first) beating the drum for QB Jay Cutler maintaining his top ten status, as a Bear. We already know about his talent level and the emotions he wears on his sleeve during games. What this tidbit tells me is that he's HIGHLY motivated. Yes, presently his receiving corps is considered a liability, but talented QBs can elevate the play of ordinary receivers. In this case, I believe he will. His ADP (55 mid 5th-round) is just about right and I'm expecting 3,600/26 from him this year.
tusken10: While I agree that Cutler should easily be considered a top 10 talent, I don't see his numbers being anywhere near what he did in Denver. While a good QB can elevate those around him, he still needs that talent to return the favor. His best receivers very well could be Olsen, Clark and Forte. Cutler is also on record as saying that Chicago's offense will go through the running game first. "Cutler doesn't expect the offense's mindset to change. 'We're going to run the ball,' he said. 'I think I've learned the hard way that you've got to run the ball and you've got to stop the run to get anywhere in this league...so that's not going to change.'" The talent is there, no question but his ceiling may be lower because of the system he's in and the current talent around him. I would feel comfortable with him as a #1 QB but don't expect more than 3300 yards and 21 TDs this year, but with obvious upside for you dynasty owners.
According to ESPN, the Vikings front office has notified Bus Cook, the agent for QB Brett Favre, that they are no longer pursuing his services, at least for now. Brett failed to show up for OTAs this week and many believe that led to this decision.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I like Sage Rosenfels and I'm hoping Favre doesn't ruin it for him. Rosey could very well finish as a top 10-12 fantasy quarterback in 2009. He has an arm and a bunch of weapons. He also has Adrian Peterson keeping defenses honest, so I'm excited to see Rosey shock fantasy worlds. The Vikings are going to have a fantastic 2009 season!
Tavaner: I wish I could say we've heard the end of this, but no one would believe me. Any doubt that there was a deadline set by the Vikings? There will be rumors galore should Rosenfels struggle but the blowback from the team should Favre walk in and be handed a job now could prove fatal to any Viking hopes of going deep into the playoffs. At this point the HC is putting his team in jeopardy should this foolishness be rekindled. I wonder what Mangini is thinking?
X: It is almost becoming a joke to report on what Favre will or will not do. The Vikes would be smart to stick to their guns and move on with Sage Rosenfels.
North End Dirtdogs: "Like sands through the hourglass, these are the Days of our Favre." The Favre comeback drama will drag on until July or August, but ultimately I think Favre will indeed sign with MINN. It does make one think how all this drama is, and will, effect a potential Super Bowl caliber team.
According to BaltimoreSun.com, Ravens RB Willis McGahee does not mind backing up second-year rusher Ray Rice. "I don't mind. Work is work. That's either with the first, second or third." Baltimore Sun beat writer Mike Preston also recently wrote that he expects LeRon McClain to keep his short-yardage work
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Even if McClain did maintain his short-yardage duties, Ray Rice is set to breakout in 2009. If he stays healthy, I'm not going to stop projecting top 10-12RB numbers out of Rice this upcoming season.
Tavaner: Willis McGahee is playing the good soldier, an amazingly mature position from a business standpoint. He'd cost too much against the cap this year to cut or trade. He'll likely be looking for a new home next year and is far more attractive if he doesn't create problems for the Ravens. So he's learning the play book this year and biding his time. Should he get a chance, and I believe at some point he will, he'll be extremely motivated to shine. I'd even consider making a buy low offer for him in dynasty's. He won't be 28 till mid-season, and his talent is less in question, than his attitude.
X: What a difference a year makes. At this point Rice is clearly the guy to own, but McGahee still has the talent to put up RB2 numbers if Rice were to get injured. I encourage Rice owners to handcuff with McGahee if they get the chance.
According to bengals.com, WR Chad Johnson has reported to Bengals OTAs.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: Chad is currently going at a WR3 price, so there isn't a ton of risk involved in drafting him. And with a healthy Carson Palmer back for the Bengals, it seems like a no-brainer he will put up much better numbers than his 53/540/4 last season.
Gambler: If that Bengals line can hold up & Palmer doesn't hold a grudge, Chad could be in for a return to relevance. As others have mentioned, he currently holds an extremely low ADP and is a bargain for redrafts.
North End Dirtdogs: This is good news for #85 and the enitre Cincy offense. As Chad works this offseason with a healthy Palmer, the chemistry should return that made Ochocinco a WR1 for the past few seasons. As long as he stays focused, he could be greatly undervalued in 2009 as he is in a contract year and participating in offseason work, unlike last season.
According to the Denver Post, Broncos RB Ryan Torain ran windsprints with the team at the end of camp on Monday. That was his first appearance on the field since ACL surgery ended his season during a week 9 game last year. "I'm just trying to stay positive," Torain said. "I'm loving life right now. I'm just happy to be here." Asked whether he will be ready for training camp in July, he said, "No timetable. The knee feels good, though."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I did like Torain before the 2009 NFL Draft… This is Moreno's team now - Everyone else on the roster just has front row tickets to the show.
X: Torain was a pretty hot commodity last season and he looked like he was on his way until that ACL injury. His road back won't be easy and he now has a new coaching staff and Knowshon Moreno in his way on the depth chart. Hard to say what will happen here, but I think Torain is worth stashing in dynasty leagues since he is still so young. I'd even venture to say he is worthy of handcuffing to Moreno, but with the sheer number of RBs in Denver these days it is hard to know how the depth chart will shake out.
craphonso: It's good to see Torain getting back on the field, but I do not see him being a factor this year. In dynasty leagues if you're still holding onto him from last years rookie drafts, stick with him. I see him as waiver wire fodder in redraft whether you grab Moreno or not.
According to the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat, 49er QB Alex Smith has been impressing his coaches during practices this offseaon. “You see more confidence,” GM Scot McCloughan said, “The players have to see it, too, to be a leader at that position.”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: Alex Smith has been hampered by injuries the last few seasons, and although he has the talent, one has to wonder if he has the "IT" factor needed to be a successful NFL quarterback. In fantasy terms, Smith is nothing more than a flyer in larger dynasty leagues.
tusken10: I was not a big fan of Smith when he came out, but I don't think he ever had a chance in San Fransisco. The previous coaching staff didn't seem 100% committed to him and the surrounding talent was well below average. At this point, I'm not sure he's even worth a late round pick and certainly nothing more than a third QB. He most likely will be a waiver wire pickup this year.
Gambler: I still believe Hill will win that competition. That same GM is the guy that wasted the number one overall pick on Smith. Of course he's going to defend and praise him.
According to the 49er beat writer Matt Maiocco, new 49er offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye intends on using TE Vernon Davis' vertical speed to create mismatch problems for opposing defenses - something not seen the last few years. "We would like to put him in positions where he is a matchup problem for the defense... provided the protection that we have will allow us to do that." Davis saw his reception total drop to 31 last season after catching 52 passes in 2007.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Davis has boat loads of talent, but when will he start using some of it? He is worth owning in medium to large fantasy leagues, but it's going to take some consistent fantasy production before fantasy owners should even consider using Davis as a fantasy starter.
Tavaner: The most telling statement last year was from Martz, I believe, who stated Davis was one of the best blocking tight ends he'd seen. We can see where that led. The last part of the above statement echo's that statement to an extent. I'd have a tough time investing in Davis as my #1 TE in a redraft as no team is going to show too aggressive a game plan against the 49ers until the regular season begins. All that being said, there is something about the HC this year, along with the OC, that makes him a sleeper in my book. With an ADP of 167, end of the 13th round, I might be tempted to take a look at him a round, or more, earlier. Just a hunch.
X: Davis entered the league in 2006 and looked like a sure thing at TE, something which has not come close to materializing. Although this report seems to suggest a simple change in targets will help Davis' stats improve, I'm not sure he has the capacity to be anything more than what we've seen so far. He's not worth your time in redraft leagues and only worth a spot in dynasty leagues if you have no better options and the room to stash a TE3.
According to BuffaloNews.com, Bills WR Steven Johnson, who is entering his second season, is receiving tremendous praise thus far in the off-season. "If you guys could watch some of this tape of the past couple practices of him getting off of the press, it's ridiculous," quarterback Trent Edwards said. "It's making some of the best corners on our team [look bad], getting right by them. He's shifty, he moves well, he comes out of his breaks well and I'm happy he's one of our receivers."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Zach: As I state in my most recent Player Spotlight on Johnson, he is a player to monitor heading into August. If he continues to impress, consider grabbing him, but only in larger dynasty leagues. Hey, people talked about Marques Colston like this once... look how that turned out!
X: If Johnson continues to impress, he is still has to beat out Parrish and Reed and at that point he is still only the third WR on this team behind TO and Evans. That said, his real value may come down the road when TO heads out to pasture - Johnson might then find himself a starter. Definitely a guy to keep and eye on and stash if you have the room on your dynasty squad.
Beat reporter Darin Gantt doesn't anticipate Jonathan Stewart (ankle) practicing before the Panthers convene for training camp.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I'm with Zach on this one, I'm a bit concerned that there could be more to this story. Keep checking back with us on this one.
Zach: This concerns me a little. It's becoming a trend for teams to reveal that players have had surgery months after it occurs. This delay in reporting surgery/injury is killing fantasy worlds and my fear is that there is more to this Jonathan Stewart story. Will news later break that he had surgery? That's pure speculation, but stay tuned.
Tavaner: Even though I'm not a Stewart owner this news concerns me and emphasizes the value of Mike Goodson for any Carolina RB owner. Stewart is a bottom of the 4th pick in 12 team redrafts right now. If he is not ready for the beginning of training camp, his redraft value will take a hit. You can approach it in two ways; grab him at his ADP and pick up Goodson later on, or gamble and see if he falls another round or two. As always, watch your waiver wire in redrafts, there is always an anxious owner ready to drop a stud if he does not produce immediately. Stewart is a talent but he'll have to stay healthy to avoid the "injury risk" label.
North End Dirtdogs: This is off his Twitter account, but it sounds like Gantt has hands on access to the practices. It does make you wonder if the ankle injury is more serious than intially reported. This news shouldn't change Stewart's dynasty/redraft value, but the injury does give Mike Goodson some extra work and he has reportly looked good thus far in OTAs.
According to 49ers.com, second-year WR Josh Morgan has switched from the “X” wide receiver position to the “Z” position. “I’m happy that I’m able to play both spots, because the more positions you know, the more I can play on the field,” Morgan said. Now that Morgan is playing the “Z” position, he’s able to learn even more from veteran Isaac Bruce, who plays the same spot. So far this offseason, Morgan looks like he’s poised for a breakout year. Under the tutelage of Raye, Morgan has not only learned his position but what each player on the offensive side of the ball is responsible for.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Josh Morgan owners should celebrate this news. This simultaneously opens a spot for Michael Crabtree to start as a split end, instead of competing with Morgan. Morgan's move offers insurance for Isaac Bruce during this season and a glimpse of next years starting WR's. Morgan is still a low end WR4/5, but now is the time to grab him from any sleepy owners. If Morgan can get 8 targets a game he moves up to WR3 territory.
X: Morgan is in prime position to cement himself as a starter this season, but I think expectations need to be tempered. He has 1 career start and 20 catches under his belt; even by rookie WR standards, that is not stellar. On top of that the QB position for the niners is not one you can look at with a lot of confidence. Look for Morgan as a late round (bottom 5) pick in your redraft league. Dynasty players should consider Morgan as a WR5/6 and be patient with his development as it may take a season or two for him to blossom.
haimez40: Josh Morgan will be a starter this year. They will find a way to get him on the field. I think Josh Morgan could make the biggest jump up in dynasty rankings going into next year. I will be shocked if Bruce actually starts over Morgan at the Z spot to start the season.
According to PFT, Saints RB Pierre Thomas injured his left wrist during Saturday’s practice. Thomas dislocated the same wrist in Week 15 last season and it required surgery. "It feels a lot better since yesterday. Yesterday as soon as I took that shot, I was in excruciating pain,” Thomas said. “I’m still in the process of getting it better after the surgery, so it’s going to take a while. But it’s getting stronger. Hopefully since he [teammate Sedrick Ellis] did hit it, he tore some of my scar tissue up and it’s going to help me out. Now I just got to have to get the swelling down. I believe as soon as I get that down I’m not going to have any problems.”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: It's just a bruised wrist at this point and the runner made it clear that he is just taking the necessary precautions. He even said he could play this week if the team had a game. Monitor this and keep checking back with us -- Thomas remains a huge breakout candidate heading into August.
Tavaner: This does not affect my view of Thomas at all. Plenty of time to get it healed and he is right, the scar tissue needed to be broken up, better now than later in the season.
According to Nola.com, both Saints WR Marques Colston and RB Reggie Bush fully participated in the team's final minicamp practice on Sunday morning. Saints coach Sean Payton said after practice that there's "no question" that both Colston and Bush will be 100 percent by the start of training camp on July 30.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Colston was said to be in "vintage form" during some plays, which is great news for fantasy owners. Colston, who is recovering from microfracture surgery, apparently is having no issues thus far and the receiver is clearly well on his way to be 100 percent by Week 1.
According to ESPN.com, FA QB Brett Favre has undergone arthroscopic surgery to fix the torn biceps in his throwing arm.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Please retire Brett. You don't need to break their hearts in Viking-land too. Jets fans are still seeing the last lame duck you threw up for grabs. In the clutch, in the play-offs. He's a mid-road QB at best, a not quite high end QB2. Low 20's TDs with as many Ints. He'll win a couple of games for you, keep you competitive in half a dozen others and kill your team in the other half.
North End Dirtdogs: Not that this is a huge surprise, but the Favre drama continues. The surgery doesn't necessarily mean he is defintely coming back to play for the Vikings, but if his rehab goes well it seems #4 could be under center for MINN in week 1.
Jets RB Thomas Jones remains a candidate to be traded this summer, according to the National Football Post's Michael Lombardi.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I find it hard to believe that any team would trade for Jones at the age of 31, especially a team like the Browns that already has an aging starter in Jamal Lewis. Thomas Jones is 30 now, but he turns 31 before the season begins. Is it possible for Thomas Jones to dominate still at 31? Not really. Read our Thirty Year-Old RB article, where we found that only Curtis Martin has ever dominated at the age of 31. Priest Holmes and Emmitt Smith had solid numbers at 31, but Holmes only played eight games and Emmitt was slowing a ton from previous years. I don't see Jones getting traded, but that doesn't mean I don't see Shonn Greene taking over as that New York starter by mid-season!
Tavaner: Last I read, Thomas Jones came into OTA's in great shape, which is a dilemma for the Jets. In shape, unhappy, and too potentially valuable to another team (NE) to let go. Given the NE/NYJ history I expect the Jets to settle for anything, and I do mean ANYTHING, rather than let Jones go as a FA and even allow a team like NE to get a shot at him. That means a team offering a mid to late second day pick could add a valuable RB for cheap.
North End Dirtdogs: It sounds like Jones' former coach Eric Mangini has an interest in trading for the 30-year-old RB. It seems that the NYJ are just trying to get an idea on how good Shonne Green can be in his first season. If he picks up the offense and shows that he is ready to share the load with Leon Washington, then Jones just might be made expendable. Obviously, Washington (pending a new contract) and Green would get a huge bump in fantasy value, while Jones would take a hit as he would most likely be sharing time with Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison if he lands in CLE.
According to ESPN.com, Broncos WR Brandon Marshall's trial for two misdemeanor charges has been pushed back to August.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Eventually stress catches up to everyone, even those who love drama as much as Marshall. If he makes the OTA's and mini-camps Marshall should be solid and consistent, again. Hopefully, he produces more than 6 tds in this offense. If he misses time, in OTA's or in training camp, I'd be leery and look elsewhere in redrafts.
haimez40: This is actually bad news for Marshall owners. Not only do we have to wait to see if he gets suspended, but it also is around the same time he gets in trouble every year. Right before pre-season seems to be the prime time for Marshall and his problems with his old girlfriend.
North End Dirtdogs: For Marshall owners, it looks another few months of waiting. If found guilty, Marshall could face another suspension from the NFL. It sounds like Goddell had this trial in mind when he reduced Marshall's suspension to only one game last summer, as the outcome of this trial could be the other half of his total suspension. For now, let's hope he is focused on his hip surgery recovery and learning the new DEN play book. Stay tuned.
According to Colts.com, Colts WR Pierre Garcon is "making strides" in in organized team activities. “He's coming along,” Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said. “I think you could see in practice today that he can catch your eye. He has the speed, size and strength to be a real fine player. It's just a matter of getting enough experience and getting a better grasp of the system.”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: He has a long way to go, and keep in mind that he is only fighting for consistent playing time in that Colts' third wide receiver role. Still, deep dynasty leaguers should take notice - Garcon has been on our dynasty radar since drafted last season.
According to WWLTV.com, Saints TE Jeremy Shockey was working primarly with the third team in minicamp practices while teammate Billy Miller took snaps with the first team.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: A message from coach Sean Peyton perhaps? He is clearly the best TE on the team and I have little doubt he's starting come September - as long as he's healthy and stays out of trouble. That said, he's more suited to be your backup fantasy TE than your starter.
According to the St. Louis Post Dispatch, Rams RB Steven Jackson is working hard on all aspects of his game. "I'm working on being a complete running back," he said. "I've said that in the past, but this year I'm really getting detailed coaching." Jackson says that he's "definitely stronger now" because of his work with a new strength coach, and "actually understanding the details on (running a pass) route" working with his new position coach Sylvester Croom.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Jackson has had trouble staying healthy in years past, but he appears to be on a mission. That Rams offensive line will be much improved this season and Donnie Avery is going to turn heads in just his second campaign, which will keep defenses honest. Jackson is in my top four overall heading into all leagues and formats.
X: Jackson's production is tied directly to his health - if he plays a full season he can easily put up top 5 numbers.
According to Sal Paolantonio, of ESPN.com, the attorney for unrestricted free-agent WR Plaxico Burress is working to find a negotiated settlement that would allow Burress to play in 2009 either by reaching a plea deal with minimal jail time or postponing a possible trial until after the 2009 season, according to a source.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: Reports a few weeks back suggested Plax had a deal on the table and turned it down. Hard to know what is really going on behind the scenes, but these things normally work in the favor of high-profile players. I agree with the buy-low theory on Plaxico - if you have the luxury of being able to sit on him, you could then turn around and trade him when his value rebounds for upgrades at other positions.
North End Dirtdogs: When Plaxico has his head on straight, he can be a dominant WR on the field and makes any QB throwing to him much better. Just ask Eli. There have been a few teams linked to Plax since his release, including TB, NYJ, and CHI. If you are a Plax owner, hold for now and hope he can work out a deal and end up on a roster this summer. For those who like to gamble, now might be a good time to buy low on the troubled WR.
According to the Indianapolis Star, starting Colts RB Joseph Addai revealed that he had athroscopic knee surgery during the offseason. "Got it cleaned out," he said. "It's feeling good right now."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: It's all about value in fantasy football, so for redraft leaguers out there, use all this doubt about Addai in 2009 to your advantage. Sure, dynasty league owners are pulling their hair out right now, but when a high-risk talent like Addai starts falling in early drafts to the point where you can grab him as your 5th or 6th player taken, high-risk/high-reward turns into low-risk/high-reward. Don't get me wrong, rookie Donald Brown is a must-own for anyone who drafts Addai in upcoming 2009 drafts, and Addai's dynasy value is in real question right now, but don't let Addai's decreased value scare you away in yearly drafts - Just secure both IND runners with 6th and 7-8th round picks and you will end up riding into 2009 with a bargain fantasy RB2. This strategy will help you focus on receivers and a quarterback early on in your '09 draft, if that's the strategy of choice for you.
X: If you are nervous about Addai, this news won't make you feel better. To me, he is still a solid RB2 that you can get at an RB3 price and this news does not change that - unless we get reports down the road that suggest he is not progressing on schedule.
Gambler: I'm beating this dead horse to death again. Stay far away from Joe Addai this year. Donald Brown looks to be the much more attractive RB in that backfield. Addai is a mediocre talent at best and continually banged up. I wouldn't draft him before the 6th round.
According to Rotoworld, Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco didn't workout at all during the 2008 off-season and the receiver blames last year's shoulder and ankle injuries on that fact. "I didn’t lift one weight, I didn’t run one route, I didn’t excercise," said Ochocinco.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Chad is reportedly going out his way to change his image and he insists that he is in top physical condition. Well, I'm not sure I can buy into all that just yet. I was high on Chad earlier this off-season, but I see him as a solid bargain grab investment at best. My advice is to grab him as a fantasy WR3-4 and hope for more. Drafting him as a fantasy WR2 would be a huge risk - If he falls to bargain value, take advantage! If you have to reach in order to land him this season, take a pass!
Tavaner: With a redraft ADP of 59 Chad offers fantastic value for those owners willing to take a (small) risk for a WR1. The above report is nothing new. It's manufactured, imo. Everyone knew this last year and it was expected that Chad might start out slowly. What was unexpected was his QB going down, and the backup being unable to get him the ball. Doubters will point to T.J.H. not being there. It wasn't T.J.'s underneath routes that opened up Chad. His skills have not diminished. The talent level at QB is back to normal. He's motivated. What's not to like?
According to BaltimoreRavens.com, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has a lot of confidence in RB Ray Rice moving forward. “Not that he wasn’t a tackle-breaker last year - he was a tackle-to-tackle runner at Rutgers, that was what he did - but he’s come a long way,” Harbaugh said. “Now, people see him as a third-down back because of the success he had last year, but I don’t think we have any question that he can be an every-down back.”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Rice has been running with the first-team as of late and should be in for a huge 2009. If you're in a dynasty league, keep trying to attack Rice via trade - His value is only going to climb as we head toward August. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Rice ends up being a very strong RB2 right out of the gate in 2009. He is by far one of my biggest mid-round breakout candidates this season.
According to DallasCowboys.com, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has high hopes for Felix Jones in 2009. "My expectations for Felix are to really have his touches to the ball upped significantly," he said about his running back. "Certainly, if you take into account that injury situation this year, he'll be a major touch-factor in the offense. He will be."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Jones could have a big season this upcoming year, but that doesn't mean that Marion Barber can't still put up top 12-14RB numbers in '09. Barber needs to be fresh in order to be that abusive rusher that he is. If he gets overworked, he will likely breakdown. It's either he rushes for roughly 900-1,000 yards with 12 or more scores, or he gets more carries early on and never even makes it to 900 and 10... that's the kind of back Barber is, so getting Felix involved in that rushing attack is actually a good thing for all you Barber owners out there. As for Felix, expect a nice little season out of 200 pound back, but expect his fantasy totals to be a bit inconsistent at times.
Tavaner: Hope you haven't been sleeping on Felix, or concerned about the 3 headed running attack in Dallas. He's going to get his touches (12-15) and easily produce flex worthy numbers, a great RB3 if you have that luxury. His current ADP is in the mid-7th round, he'll easily outproduce that draft spot and most RBs in his position. He'll have to stay healthy.
North End Dirtdogs: I've read that DAL is incorporating their own version of the Wildcat package called the "Razorback" with Felix as the centerpiece. This should be another way that Felix will get more touches this upcoming season.
In a recent radio interview on WWL radio in New Orleans, Saints QB Drew Brees had this to say about Saints RB Pierre Thomas: "Without a doubt, Pierre Thomas is the total package," In the interview, Brees also called Thomas is the team's number one back.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Thomas could have a huge season in 2009, but as Brees said in the interview, Pierre has to stay healthy. If he does, Thomas could shock fantasy worlds and be one of the biggest fantasy steals at year's end. Double-digit touchdowns is possible for the PT Cruiser on 15-16 starts.
Tavaner: Instead of singing his praises, again, here is a paraphrased version of comments he made last year; *I learned from watching Lance. He worked hard and prepared himself so that he could take advantage of opportunity ... I've approached this situation the same way.* He's continued that approach through the off-season by adding 20 lbs and continuing to work hard. Get him now while there are still some doubters out there. His current ADP varies from late 4th (45) to mid-5th (56). He'll be ppr gold, easily capable of 45 receptions to go with his 1100+ total yards and double digit td's.
North End Dirtdogs: Bulked up, pissed off, and playing with a chip on his shoulder...I think PT is in for a big year. Reports say he took the Wells smokescreen personally and is out to prove he is the #1 guy in NO. Reggie is not going anywhere and will still get his catches and returns, but I personally think PT is the RB to own in this backfield. Being in a contract year is also a little more motivation.
According to Bengals.com, Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is impressed with the quickness and NFL athleticism of rookie RB Bernard Scott.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Scott is a beast. He ran for 2,165 yards and 39 touchdowns in college last year and had 1,892 yards and 27 touchdowns during his junior season. He even had 292 yards rushing and 7TDs in Abilene Christian's '08 Division II playoff win over West Texas A&M. Impressed yet? How about five arrests in four years? The runner throws down big numbers in everything that he does. The good news, when it comes to his troubles, is that all five of Scott's arrests have been either expunged or dismissed and he's coming off a fantastic season where he won the Division II Heisman. Given where this kid can be grabbed in 2009 redraft leagues, and given that only Cedric Benson stands in his way, he is all upside. He won't go in the first-round of 2009 rookie fantasy drafts, but I'll be honest… I'd reach for him in the late first-round if I thought someone else was going to snag him.
tusken10: I've done several keeper/dynasty drafts already this year and Scott has been drafted higher in each one. The Bernard Scott bandwagon seems to be gaining momentum and he could easily be a late first round pick in any rookie draft as the summer moves along. As Smitty mentioned, he only has Cedric Benson to beat out and the Bengals look to be a much better team this year and beyond. If he can keep himself out of trouble, which seems to be asking a lot, he could be a big time steal.
According to reports, Bears RB Matt Forte only has a hamstring strain. The team reportedly does not consider the injury serious.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: This is great news for fantasy owners, as a popping sound can often mean that there is an ACL tear. If anything more develops, we will absolutely let you know. Sleep easy Forte owners!
Tavaner: Let's hope it is fully healed by the start of the season. If it flares up again, Forte owners could be in for a l o n g season. If there is even a mention of it at the time of your redraft, I'd avoid him altogether, or accept the fact you'll be looking at our breaking news a few times a day for a while.
According to Philly.com, a source close to the Eagles is claiming the surgery RB Brian Westbrook will undergo is more serious than they are letting on. "I'm just concerned that it is being underplayed," the source said. "It's a lot more than a little spur and it's much more than the knee arthroscopy he had (in February)." In contrast, Westbrook's agent, Todd France, described the procedure as "minor", but the true nature of the injury won't be known until doctors give Westbrook a recovery timetable post-surgery. Right now, team sources are saying he will be ready for Week 1.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: If this is accurate, and Westy's surgery is more intense than initially reported, McCoy might start going in the 2-3 range in upcoming fantasy rookie drafts. With each day that goes by, McCoy's dynasty value increases. Now we just have to figure out where, and when, to move both Westy and McCoy in both our redraft and dynasty 2009 fantasy football rankings.
X: We could be witnessing the beginning of the end for Westy, but he has shown to be a tough guy in the past. If you own him in your dynasty league, McCoy is a must-have.
Gambler: I was concerned before this, now I'm outright selling. Westbrook is a gamer and will do all he can to get back on the field, but father time has finally caught the shifty back. Do not expect a consistent season from Westy and draft accordingly.
According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Browns' QBs Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson will see their competition for the starting job go well into the preseason. "I want to go through the whole process, evaluate each phase, see it against other opponents." said new coach Eric Mangini "The big (criteria) for me is huddle presence and the ability to run the offense." Asked whether this would lead to a job share during the season, Mangini said, "I would anticipate having a starter and moving forward with that starter. But I wouldn't rule out anything."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I think Quinn might be able to get the job done over in Cleveland, at least he will be able to get Edwards his targets. That said, I still stand by my comments from last year, that Derek Anderson is a seriously talented quarterback. I am pulling for Anderson and I hope he gets another shot to impress. To me, Edwards and those Cleveland receivers have more value with Anderson under center, but that's me.
X: This is really not a surprise, especially considering both bring considerable talent to the table. My gut feeling is that Quinn will win this job, even if he does not do so right away. That said, I wouldn't consider either a safe QB2 in redraft leagues.
According to ChicagoTribune.com, after hearing a pop in his left leg, Bears RB Matt Forte limped off the field after Wednesday's practice. Forte reportedly had an MRI this morning - He didn't not practice today.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: A pop is never good. If the pop was in his knee, we could be talking about an ACL tear. If it was in a muscle near his knee, this could be a lot less severe. Stay tuned - Hopefully the runner has at most a muscle tear, or a strain. Forte said via his Twitter account that "I'm good!!" Hopefully Forte is right.
X: Early reports suggest it is minor... hold your breath Forte owners.
According to Chris Mortensen's Twitter account, Bears QB Jay Cutler has made a tremendous difference already to the Bears receiving corp. He even hinted that WR Devin Hester "might be everything & more that Eddie Royal was."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I'm actually not a huge fan of Hester from a fantasy wide receiver perspective. The guy has insane talent and is extremely valuable to that Bears squad, but my money is on one of Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett or Juaquin Iglesias emerging as Cutler's go-to guy. Sure, Hester might be roster worthy in 2009 fantasy leagues, but my gut tells me he will be the third receiver on the team, which won't translate into anything more than a WR5+ type in fantasy worlds. I'm certainly going to monitor Hester's preseason play and I will certainly let all of you know if my opinion changes.
haimez40: I believe Hester is due for a breakout campaign also. I consider him a nice bye week fill in with upside. I don't expect consistency, but he will put up some huge numbers in some games.
tusken10: Hester isn't getting much attention this off season despite the serious upgrade at QB, but he is primed for his best season as a pro by far. I don't see Eddie Royal numbers, but he has breakout candidate written all over him. The Bears will still be a run first team, but I believe that Hester would make a surprise WR3 with upside this year with 70+ receptions, 900-1000 yds and 6 TDS.
According to Mike Lombardi of the National Football Post, rookie RB LeSean McCoy should be getting "every opportunity to prove" he can handle the Eagles' starting tailback job with Brian Westbrook out until at least training camp.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I keep saying that Wesbtrook's injury situation could end up being a good thing for the crafty fantasy owner, as it makes Westy a bargain and having the combo of Westbrook/McCoy could prove to produce top 5-7 overall fantasy numbers in 2009... the problem is, McCoy's draft value could continue to rise to the point where he becomes high-risk/high-reward all by himself. We will keep you posted on his ADP as the weeks and months move along. For now, the Westy/McCoy combo looks like a solid investment - We will let you know if that changes.
Tavaner: With a similar skillset as Westbrook, LeSean McCoy has a tremendous opportunity to cement his role in the Eagle offense as early as this year. If he can pass block he'll get even more playing time during the season. For me, his pass protection is the key, he has the skills. Imagine a defense facing Westbrook and McCoy in the same backfield, one in motion, on 3rd downs. With an ADP in redrafts at round 10 now (12 teams), I'd expect to see a jump into the mid-rounds soon.
North End Dirtdogs: The Philadelphia RB situation kind of reminds me of St. Louis a few years ago when Marshall Faulk was nearing the end and Steven Jackson was drafted as his eventual replacement. Faulk remained the starter when healthy but Jackson played a lot and you could see the switch coming. To me, Westbrook and McCoy seem to be in a similar situation. McCoy may have cemented himself as at least the #4 rookie RB taken in dynasty drafts.
According to PhiladelphiaEagles.com, the Eagles announced on Wednesday night that RB Brian Westbrook will in fact have ankle surgery this Friday. The procedure will be performed by Dr. Mark Meyerson.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The team's first game is on September 13, so the runner has a grip of time to get healthy. That said, it doesn't look like Westy will play in any preseason games. As I've said a lot lately, I firmly believe Westy will shine at times in 2009, but he will likely miss a handful of games given that he is entering 2009 at the age of 30. His '09 ADP is dropping fast, but this could be good news, as that Westy/McCoy combo could end up cranking out top 5-7 fantasy numbers at season's end.
According to CSN Philly, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook has a right high-ankle sprain that may require surgery to clean it out. Pro Football Talk is also reporting on this and they suggest that Westbrook could be out until the regular season. Running backs LeSean McCoy and Lorenzo Booker will share first-team backfield snaps until Westrbook returns to action.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: If you haven't read our 30 Year-Old Running Back article, you better check it out. Westbrook might shine in waves this season, but he is a strong candidate to miss a grip of action given his age. Very few runners dominate at the age of 30, and given Westbrook's injury history, I don't believe he is going to play even 12 games. All that said, the combo of Westbrook and McCoy could produce top 5-7 fantasy numbers in 2009, so use the ADPs to your advantage come August, especially if Westy falls far.
Gambler: I've been a huge Westbrook fan for many years, but time seems to have caught up with the guy. Temper your expectations going forward with him.
North End Dirtdogs: Its tough to see the elite fall, but all RBs have a short life in the NFL and it seems Westbrook is nearing his. Those owners who moved him this offseason, like myself, are feeling pretty lucky. Otherwise remaining Westbrook owners have to ride out any production from him and hope for a resurgent second half of the season if he does miss some regular season time.
According to a report on TampaBay.com, Buccaneers RB coach Steve Logan commented on the roles of RBs Ernest Graham and Derrick Ward by saying, "I think Earnest, everybody, the fans and coaches know what Earnest is and what he can do. I think Derrick is going to give us a good change of pace from Earnest. Earnest has a lot of power and is very quick in short spaces. I think Derrick has a little more speed, for lack of a better word, and might give us a little bit more plays outside the tackles. I see a nice complement between those two."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Tampa has a solid offensive line, so this news could actually be a good thing for the crafty fantasy owner. If most everyone views this as a sharing situation, both runners could become bargain grabs entering August drafts, so take advantage if the price is right and hope for the best.
X: Regardless of who the split favors, it's a split and that's not good news for fantasy owners. Neither was more than a RB3 anyway, but if this report holds true, their values may fall even more.
tusken10: I agree, not good news for Ward despite the hefty contract he signed in the offseason. This won't become any clearer until the season is underway, if at all. I would view both of them as a low RB3 or high RB4.
According to ESPN, Broncos WR Brandon Marshall is "not out of the woods" just yet when it comes to a possible suspension. The receiver is scheduled to stand trial in Atlanta next week on two counts of misdemeanor battery, charges from back in March of 2008. "The pending case will be subject to review when appropriate," league spokesman Greg Aiello told ESPN on Tuesday. "The notification [Marshall] received from our office applied only to the March 1st incident."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The Denver Post is now suggesting that the NFL will re-review Marshall under its conduct policy if he is convicted, or even if he pleas guilty or no contest to these charges. It's tough to say what the future holds for the very talented receiver.
X: I think he escapes any suspension regardless of the outcome since Goodell and the NFL knew about this when he was suspended last season. From what I read, the real problem here is that his next infraction, no matter how minor, will likely get him 4-8 games - maybe more if it is really serious. He's on a short leash and that risk definitely mutes his upside from this point on.
According to ESPN's John Clayton, Lions QB Matthew Stafford has wowed the coaching staff since the Lions' off season programs began. Says Clayton in his column, "From what has been seen in Stafford's first month with the team, it's inevitable he will be the starter." He also indicates that head coach Jim Schwartz has been impressed with Stafford's release and how well he is picking up the offense. Stafford is currently battling Daunte Culpepper for the starting job.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: Stafford has a high ceiling even though he plays for the Lions. Keep an eye on whoever wins this job - either Stafford or Culpepper is worth a late round shot in redraft leagues, especially considering their main target is Calvin Johnson. In dynasty leagues, Stafford is a mid to late first round pick.
According to WMAR-TV, Vince Young is looking for a legitimate chance to play or he wants to be traded or released by the Titans.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: Note to Vince: you are in no position to demand anything, but don't let that stop you. To me, Young is barely worth rostering - even in deeper dynasty leagues.
haimez40: Vince to me has no chance to be traded unless he agrees to a new contract. The Titans hold the cards here, but he could hold value on another team next year when his contract goes up drastically and he gets cut. At this point he is only a luxury bench player in dynasty formats. He has the talent, but has a mental hurdle he can't seem to get over. Making it "rain" at Nelly concerts isn't encouraging news in the maturity department.
According to the Baltimore Sun, Ravens RB Willis McGahee was back at practice working primarily with the 2nd team. He had been limited in previous mandatory minicamps due to offseason arthroscopic knee surgery, but head coach Jim Harbaugh seemed unwilling to comment on his current health saying, "I don't know, I have no idea where he's at. It's the first day he's been here in a week and a half. I can't gauge it." Second year RB Ray Rice has been working with the first team most of this offseason.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: As I keep saying, Ray Rice has breakout written all over him. Dynasty leaguers better attack him via trade right now before his value goes through the roof.
X: Ouch! Harbaugh's comments speak volumes about his feelings on McGahee and they aren't good. Seems that Ray Rice has a firm hold of the #1 spot right now and I don't expect that to change. If you haven't bought low on Rice already, you are running out of time.
haimez40: I expect this story to evolve into trade rumors. Ray Rice's value is on steady incline.
According to KDVR FOX 31, Broncos WR Brandon Marshall has said he was contacted by the NFL and no suspension will be coming.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
X: Wow, hot on the heals of an earlier news story saying the NFL was waiting on the outcome of his court case comes this news. His ranking stays unchanged for me - just inside my top 10. With or without a suspension, this kid always seems to be in trouble.
haimez40: Expect Marshall's value to go up and down all offseason. I don't think we have seen the end to his troubles off the field. A big sign of change will be no incidents during mini camps.
tusken10: Good news for Marshall's redraft value! The talent is there but with so much uncertainty in Denver coupled with his personal issues, his hip surgery and possible contract dispute it's hard to rank him any higher than one of the last of the #1 WRs in any format.
According to AP reports, Cardinals WR Steve Breaston continues to get lots of practice time with the first team offense while teammate Anquan Boldin sits out because of a contract dispute. "I've just got more opportunities now," Breaston said. "Just with Q not being here - and it's trouble him not being here - but it's good for me getting more reps." Breaston caught 77 passes for 1,006 yards last season.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: I'm a big fan of Breaston, regardless of Boldin. He's a legit WR3/4 will all the passes that fly around with even bigger upside if you get return yards (top 12 here). Look for him mid-round 7 in both dynasty and redrafts. One thing you can depend on is that Fitz and/or Boldin will miss a few games and he'll be there to produce for you.
X: With the amount of passes that go around in that Cardinals offense, Breaston will get his share even if Boldin stays. If Boldin does get traded, Breaston instantly becomes a WR2 in my book.
haimez40: Breaston is going to be a fine WR this year, but this news should not change anyone's rankings. Only Boldin getting traded can do that.
tusken10: I personally would temper my expectations for the upcoming season, as Breaston has a few factors working against him. First is Boldin still being in a Cardinals' uniform - 'nuff said. Second, by drafting Chris Wells the Cardinals are hoping to run more and pass less which would probably would leave Breaston as the odd man out. And lastly, what will affect Breaston's value (especially his long term value) the most is his QB. Warner will be 38 when the season starts and there is no other QB on the roster that can run that offense to it's full potential.
Gambler: Breaston is still the third WR on the team and that won't likely change. While it's good for Breaston to get extra reps, don't move him up your rankings too much.
According to the Denver Post, the NFL is waiting on a decision to suspend Broncos WR Brandon Marshall until his pending misdemeanor battery case is resolved in court. Marshall continues to deny the charges.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: Marshall is going at the 2/3 turn right now in twelve team leagues. Suspension or not that is fantastic value in re-drafts. While the NFL will let this play out in court, if found innocent he won't sit at all. As for Marshall the person, hope he gets over the need for drama in his life.
X: A lot of Marshall owners were hoping he had already escaped missing time because nothing was heard from the NFL front office. Seems they were simply waiting. My ranking of Marshall has moved down, but I still see him as a top 10 dynasty WR simply because of his talent - without this off-the-field stuff, he could easily have been top 3.
According to reports, Chiefs RB Larry Johnson returned to voluntary practice yesterday.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Johnson is a tough player to rank at this point in the off-season. It was once thought that the runner could end up getting released this off-season, but last month Chiefs coach Todd Haley praised Larry Johnson's practice play and even said that he was "very encouraged." His value could rise in my book as the off-season moves along, but for now he is a low-end RB2, at best, heading into '09.
Tavaner: Why this is news is beyond me. If I had his contract I'd honor every little detail as well. What it means for me is sleeper potential though, like almost get excited sleeper potential. Yes, we all know about the passing offense but consider the zone blocking scheme that will probably be employed; one cut and go. L.J. is also going to see something he hasn't seen for three years, space. Know of any team that will crowd the line to stop L.J. with Cassel at the head of a passing offense? Me neither. I believe redraft owners are going to have a solid RB2 on their hands with L.J. this year. Those in ppr can probably count on 35 receptions or more, nothing like a little screen to slow down an aggressive pass rush. With an ADP of 79/mid- round 6 he offers great value for a patient owner or one looking for a solid RB3 with upside. Dynasty owners needing some depth or looking for a reasonable RB2/3 can probably buy low right now.
craphonso: I have Larry Johnson as a RB #3 in dynasty leagues. He should get the majority of the RB workload and goal line carries in KC. He wasn't involved in the passing game however last year. Jamaal Charles now has a year of experience under his belt. I don't see how Charles doesn't become even more involved in his 2nd year thus taking some additional value away from LJ.
haimez40: LJ biggest obstacles last year was the suspension and poor use in the offense by the coaching staff. He averaged 4.5 ypc and will be a steal in drafts this season, because he will get carries. He is a borderline #2RB and a very solid #3. Charles to me is no threat to steal a large number of carries.
According to the Washington Post, Redskins WR Malcolm Kelly has been running routes for more than a month now, testing a knee that had microfracture surgery performed on it over the winter. Finally able to get onto the field was a relief to Kelly and afterward he relayed everything felt fine and the knee reacted well to the stresses placed on it during practice.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I'm not expecting much out of Kelly in 2009. He only ran a 4.7 forty when healthy, he only has three NFL catches to his name and is coming off of microfracture surgery. That's what you call a recipe for not being able to separate at the NFL level. Until Colt Brennan gets into that Redskins starting line-up, I'm not getting a good feeling about any of those Washington receivers this year.
X: Kelly has some definite sleeper value this season as does teammate Devin Thomas - both are in their second year looking to make an impact. Either is a guy to take a chance on, although I prefer Kelly as he seems to have a better work ethic.
According to Drew Rosenhaus via his Twitter account, Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco is on a mission in 2009 and has "truly dedicated himself this offseason." He also stated that Ochocinco "will be tougher then ever to cover this year."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Chad is in a good situation this year, but it's tough to tell what kind of attitude he is going to bring to the game this season (despite what Rosenhaus says in his tweets).
Zach: You have to love Rosenhaus and his tweets! I'm not too sure what he means, though, as Chad hasn't appeared at any voluntary workouts. This is just Rosenhaus being Rosenhaus. Chad could have a decent season this year, though, but I'm not digging his dynasty value anymore.
Tavaner: Chad had an off year last year with his QB injured and the replacement QB unable to get him the ball, for me that is all it was. All the other hoopla is media driven, imo. Look for him at the end of the 4th, beginning of the 5th round and silently thank all the owners for letting him drop to you. The ONLY hesitation I'd have is the health of Palmer, if he's good, Chad is WR1 value, at WR2 redraft prices.
According to BaltimoreSun.com, Ravens RB Ray Rice has added some noticeable bulk in the chest area as well as his lower body.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I will continue to beat a dead horse on this issue -- Ray Rice is one of my biggest breakout running backs entering 2009. He can be had in the middle rounds, due to his somewhat cloudy situation in Baltimore right now, but this kid has a grip of talent and might really turn some heads in 2009. Nothing is for sure with that Ravens backfield, but you can grab Rice at a low-risk slot, which is why he has "steal" written all over him this upcoming season.
Zach: I also like Ray Rice this year. It will be interesting to see how that changes if his ADP rises closer to August. As Smitty said, he is such an attractive fantasy option this year because of where you can snag him, but if that changes it is possible he goes from low-risk/high-reward to high-risk/high-reward.
According to Los Angeles Times, Patriots QB Tom Brady is exceeding expectations with his ACL recovery. "With regard to his recovery of strength, I've never seen anything quite like it," said Dr. Neal ElAttrache, an orthopedic surgeon specializing in sports medicine at the Kerlan-Jobe Clinic in Los Angeles. "With an average person, it would have taken probably twice as long to get range of motion and strength back."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Brady should be a bargain grab this season, as he is still very capable of throwing for 40TDs again in 2009. Is that crazy talk? Well, last time I checked Randy Moss is still on the roster over in New England -- If Brady keeps falling into the third-round, like I've seen in early drafts, he is going to be the biggest steal in 2009 drafts.
Zach: Brady will be a steal this year in redraft leagues. He is also in my top 2QBs for dynasty formats moving forward. Some may say that taking a quarterback in the first- or second-round is fantasy suicide, but Brady is well worth a late second-rounder in my book because he can finish as the No. 1 overall fantasy scorer in all leagues. It's all about outperforming draft positions and Brady can still extremely outperform a second-round draft slot!
X: Nothing is ever certain with ACL injuries, but I have little doubt Brady will return to form this season. Hard to believe a guy like Brady can be a value player, but he really is - let others nab Brees and Manning (among others) with high picks and wait on Brady a round or two later.
According to SI.com, 49ers RB Frank Gore was very likely inspired in May minicamps when he saw the new offensive scheme being implemented - one which mirrors the offense he ran in on his way to a monster campaign in 2006. During that season, he put up career highs in rushing (1,695 yards), touchdowns (8) and yards-per-carry (5.4). "It's about the same, a lot of power counters, going at them, don't care what they have in front of us; they just have to stop us," Gore said. "My type of running style is that I like to have my shoulders square. A lot of runs and a lot of the running plays are going straight downhill, just pick your hole and go."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Gore is the forgotten man right now. He just turned 26 last month and is in my personal top five overall in both redraft and dynasty formats. Gore is extremely underrated entering 2009, especially in PPR formats. I envision Gore throwing down 1,800 ru/rec yards, 50 receptions and 10 total scores in '09.
Zach: I also like Gore this year. I won't be taking him in the top 3-4 like Smitty will, but you won't see him slip past me if I'm in the five spot. He has way too much upside, and as stated above, he is only 26! He is a huge buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues right now.
X: Frank Gore is often overlooked, but he is more than capable of monster numbers this season and it's looking like he could be the steal of the first round in 2009. He also comes a lot cheaper than he should in dynasty leagues, so don't hesitate to make a move on him if the price is right.
tusken10: This should be music to the ears of all Gore owners - A system that plays to his strengths, a head coach dedicated to pounding the ball, and no other back on the roster that is a threat to steal carries. All signs are pointing to Gore having a great rebound season and a return to being one of the top fantasy performers, especially in PPR leagues. The only downside to Gore is that he has a tough time avoiding injuries and he has never had double-digit touchdowns in any pro season.
According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Vikings RB Adrian Peterson says he's lowered his body fat, added six pounds of muscle and now weighs 216. Peterson had previously talked of bulking up to 230 pounds for the season.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I'm with Gambler on this one, I like AP playing at that 216-220 range. Added weight wouldn't be the end of the world, but I say why change up what is working... Peterson is EASILY my number one ranked running back this season in all leagues and formats. As I've said before, it wouldn't shock me at all if Peterson rushed for 18-20 touchdowns this upcoming season.
Tavaner: For all the talk about his added weight I chuckled when I read he was still at his playing weight. This guy is driven to excellence and remains my #1 RB, regardless of format.
Gambler: This is the news I was waiting for. I've been afraid Peterson would be a step slower at 230 this year. He safely moves back to my #2 RB overall behind Jones-Drew.
According to the Sporting News, RB Edgerrin James blames his lackluster production in 2008 on the Cardinals' commitment to the running game, not on any physical downturns. "Of course I've still got it, I was in a bad situation. Just look at my track record. I averaged 4.5 yards a game the last five, six games. Trust me, there's nothing wrong with me. It was a passing team. You're not gonna find a top two or three passing team with a top running game." James is currently a free agent with no known suitors.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: While Edge still might have some gas left in the tank, he will only succeed in the perfect situation. He could start in a place like New England, but it's going to take an environment like that to make Edge even roster worthy in 2009 fantasy leagues. New Orleans is thought to be a possible landing spot, but he will be third in line for carries on that roster, so he won't be useful there. Stay tuned!
X: Edge was one of the great fantasy backs, but sadly his time has come and gone. At best, he will find himself in a similar situation as a backup runner and has little fantasy value unless an injury propels him into a bigger role.
According to rotoworld, Steelers LB Lawrence Timmons becomes the Steelers' uncontested starting "Buck" inside linebacker following Larry Foote's release. Timmons hinted at his enormous IDP upside with 65 stops, five sacks, a pick, and a forced fumble despite only playing on passing downs last year. Highly explosive, he's now setup to threaten for top-ten linebacker numbers.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: I hope you IDPers are not sleeping on this one!!! HUGE upside. Just take a look at the numbers. He's been groomed, he knows the system and it's his time to shine. No matter your IDP scoring, here is a future stud (m/o) you can pick up later in a draft while you scoop up those pesky WRs and RBs we need for depth. He's on few owners radar, with an ADP of 215/round 17. How does 100+total tackles, 6 sacks, 7 pds, and a handful of other scoring goodies sound? Look for him around the 12th, or between the end of LB1's, beginning of the LB2 run.
According to the St. Petersburg Times, the starting job in Tampa has already come down to a contest between QB Byron Leftwich and QB Luke McCown, with rookie QB Josh Freeman a distant third. Coach Raheem Morris summed it up by saying, "We're charting it. We're looking at it, and it's tight. It's exactly what we said we wanted. We wanted competition, and we've got it. If they're going to (create) tough decisions for us, that's great. I don't want anybody to give it to them. I don't want anybody to win by default."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: I'm not a big believer in either McCown or Leftwich this upcoming season, but Freeman could be a decent quarterback someday.
Tavaner: Tampa Bay faces a tough run schedule from the looks of it. While not a determining factor in drafting it suggests that whomever ends up the starting QB in Tampa will have a shot at surprising this year. There is always a QB somewhere that seems to come out of nowhere - Tampa seems a like spot for this to occur, because McCown has the arm and he's my choice to start for that team. If you are sitting late in a redraft, suffer an injury at QB, or have a spot open in deeper leagues, you might want to look at McCown a bit closer.
X: Both of these guys are journeyman quarterbacks looking to revive their careers in Tampa. Regardless of who wins the job, neither makes for anything more than a QB3 in redraft leagues. In dynasty, Josh Freeman is who you want, although he could take a few years to develop.
According to StarTribune.com, Vikings quarterbacks Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson are in a heated competition for the team's starting gig. Childress said that both quarterbacks had "bright moments" this weekend and it is reportedly tough to tell which one has the advantage at this point.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Don't believe for a second that Rosenfels isn't a better quarterback. Jackson has had his chance and failed miserably. He isn't a pure passer and can't feed Bernard Berrian the way Rosenfels can. I am actually a big believer in Rosey - I think he can be a solid low-end QB1 this year!
Tavaner: People continue to sleep on Rosenfels. His value takes a hit due to Favre's flirtation with the Vikings but if that scenario does not play out Rosey will make a nice late round QB2, capable of putting up numbers that allow you to stay competitive when he's needed. The Vikings passing schedule looks very friendly - on paper.
X: I have little doubt Rosenfels was brought in to start and it would be a complete shock if Jackson got in the way of that.
According to The National Football Post, several sources within the NFL have suggested that the Rams will likely pursue QB Michael Vick should he get reinstated by the league.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: It's tough to predict how this is going to play out. In the deepest dynasty leagues, it might not be a bad idea to grab Vick if you have a spot to burn. Definitely do not drop a solid contributor to your squad, but Vick is so talented physically it wouldn't be a shock if he started some games backing up the oft-injured Bulger. We will let you know when more develops!
Tavaner: I'm a skeptic when it comes to Vick contributing to any team this year. The Rams are the ideal team to temper that skepticism though. The trouble is, once he does sign with a team, his draft slot will rise. Pick him up for that end of the roster spot - the one you don't mind cutting as soon as the "next" emerging player has a good week.
X: I'm not sold on Vick being reinstated this year and even if he is, I'm not sure how much he can be expected to contribute to an NFL team so soon. At this point, his dynasty value is about zero in my book.
Gambler: While I'm not exactly high on Vick, I couldn't possibly be any lower on Mark Bulger. It's one place you know Vick would get his touches. He's still someone you can grab real late in drafts that may pay off big for you.
According to reports, Ravens RB LeRon McClain apparently looks roughly 20 pounds over his usual playing weight.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: This is just further proof that McClain will be headed back to fullback this upcoming season. Don't say you didn't hear it here, as I've been beating a dead horse all off-season -- Ray Rice has breakout written all over him! He has to be one of my favorite buy-low candidates right now in all dynasty/keeper formats.
According to Fanhouse, LB Pisa Tinoisamoa has signed a one year deal with the Chicago Bears. Tinoisamoa represents an upgrade at the SLB position, though it may be a two down job according to the article. "If Tinoisamoa does what the Bears expect on the first two downs, they'll be able to keep their safeties back — instead of creeping one up into the box for run support."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Tavaner: I included that last quote for all you IDP'ers out there, if you depend on tackles for DB scoring. Tinoisamoa is a strong tackler who will upgrade the Chicago D. He's a borderline LB3/4 in 12 team leagues.
According to StarTribune report, Vikings coach Eric Bieniemy is expecting RB Adrian Peterson to surpass his lead-leading rushing totals from 2009. "I thought he made a tremendous jump from [his rookie season], but also I think he will improve again this year," Bieniemy said. The coach also revealed that "All Day" has become more focused on football and less so on outside interests, saying "I think this year, he's limited his priorities more so of not doing that as much and basically more concentrating on himself and getting himself prepared mentally and physically for the season."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: As long as he stays on the field, the sky is the limit for Peterson. On a healthy season, I wouldn't even count out 18-20 rushing touchdowns.
X: Peterson is already the top dog in this game after only two short seasons, the scary part is that he has lots of room to get better. A 2,000 yard season is not only not out of the question, but nearly guaranteed.
Gambler: The only thing that concerns me with Peterson is his weight gain this year. I would have liked to see him stay where he was. If he doesn't lose any speed or elusiveness, breaking last years total is well within reach.
According to a Bengals.com report, WR Chad Ochocinco is at 195 lbs, up 20 lbs from camp last season, and is running 4.5 40-yard dashes in his workout sessions with mentor Chad Collins. Collins is also confident that Chad has the passion it takes to play and thinks the often disgruntled receiver has come to grips with the limitations of his 31-year-old body. "To go from one of the top five receivers in the league to 65 in the league hurt him," Collins said. "He felt that, and he wants to get back." Whether he can regain that form is up for debate, but there is little doubt how Collins feels, "A lot of it is the mental part of it. But I think he's getting ready to have a really good year."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: It's all about value when it comes to Chad. By looking at early mocks, the receiver can be grabbed very late, possibly as a fantasy WR3. This screams bargain because there is very little risk at his current purchase price. Even dynasty leaguers should trade for him while his value is low!
X: After one bad season, Chad is a forgotten man and can likely be had on the cheap. He comes with plenty of risk, but at the right price the reward he can potentially bring is worth it. With Carson Palmer healthy again, I think Chad could be poised for another big season.
According to ESPN, former Cowboys QB Troy Aikman claimed that Dallas' trade for WR Roy Williams would be "one of the biggest busts in the history of the league" if Williams didn't produce. Former Cowboys RB Emmitt Smith also appears critical of Williams, as he recently hinted that Dallas no longer has explosiveness in their passing attack now that Owens is in Buffalo. "I don't know why those guys started thinking I can't play," said Williams. "…But I guess I'll just have to show them what I can do."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: With Owens in Buffalo, Williams should see a grip of targets in 2009, although it is tough to say what he will do with those targets… If healthy, I have a good feeling that Williams will produce top 20 fantasy WR numbers. Will he stay healthy, though?
Tavaner: Roy-boy is going to deliver this year. He isn't T.O but he is the #1WR on a prolific offensive team. With a current ADP of 44 he is going to out-produce that draft spot. Need a WR that can give you 75/1000/9? Roy is your man, and you can wait on him in re-draft. His value in dynasty is a low as it will get before training camps begin. See what it might take to pry him away from a doubtful owner.
X: Show me Roy, show me. We are now entering season 6 for the "elite" Roy Williams and we have yet to see anything close to WR1 numbers from him. Despite that fact, many in the fantasy world are still willing to overpay for him - don't be one of them.
Gambler: Line me up behind Aikman and Smith. Dallas overpaid for Williams and will soon regret shipping T.O. off.
According to Pro Football Talk, Bills WR Terrell Owens is consistently making highlight-worthy catches during Bills practice. Owens is reportedly displaying an extra gear and during Friday practice the receiver accelerated on a fly pattern to pull in an almost overthrown pass by Trent Edwards.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Owens, 35, might surprise some people in 2009. That said, keep in mind that Marvin Harrison was elite at 34 (95/1,366/12), but missed 11 games and pulled in just 247 yards at 35 (2007). If anyone can play at an elite level at 35, it's Owens, but it could be one of those "elite seasons" in games played, but with only 11 or so games played.
X: Isn't this how Owens always starts out with a new team? I'm pretty confident Owens will be on his best behavior this season and put up some WR1 numbers in the process - playing for a new contract brings out the best in him.
According to the Buffalo News, RB Marshawn Lynch has bulked up to between 225-230 pounds. He still feels good about his speed, “I haven't lost a step…" He hopes the extra weight will help him maintain his playing weight through the season.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Lynch formally appealed his three-game suspension earlier this month for violating the league's personal conduct policy. While player appeals can sometimes lead to lesser suspension, keep in mind that Lynch is a repeated offender and may not catch a break. When starting, Lynch is a top 10-12 fantasy back in my book.
Tavaner: For me, Marshawn Lynch is still a stud.
According to Pro Football Weekly, Patriots RB Laurence Maroney was seen returning kickoffs during OTAs this week, something he has not done since his 2006 rookie campaign. According to the report, this is a role Maroney could excel in considering his combination of speed and power.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Maroney is in an awful situation in New England. I wouldn't drop him just yet in keeper formats, but it's tough to imagine him having value in New England this year. Why the Patriots won't give him another crack at the starting gig is beyond me.
X: This only furthers speculation that Maroney will not be the featured back in New England this season, although it is clear the Patriots don't need one guy in the backfield to be successful on offense. That said, Maroney's value cannot really get much lower and I would say he is still worth holding in deeper dynasty leagues.
According to the StarTribune, Vikings WR Percy Harvin was being used at various offensive postions in practice this week, including quarterback. Vikings offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell indicates that the Vikings have upwards of 30 plays designed specifically to get Harvin the ball, saying “We’re looking at things we do, we’re looking at things other teams have done and trying to get the ball to our playmakers.” Harvin was a first round pick for the Vikings in this year's NFL draft.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: With every day that passes, Harvin is starting to look more and more attractive from a fantasy perspective. The problem with these "slash" type players is that coaches never follow through and use them consistently. Harvin has all of the tools needed to become a successful version of Reggie Bush -- That Vikings coaching staff just needs commit to using him.
X: I've been talking up Harvin since the draft finished and this only adds to my belief that this kid will be special. I currently have him a hair below WR Michael Crabtree in my dynasty WR rankings. If he is a player you are targeting in your dynasty draft, get yourself positioned into the earlier part of round 1, say the 5-7 range, especially in PPR leagues.
tusken10: I'm not as high (no pun intended) on Harvin as others are. Putting the character and health issues aside, I wonder about the long term value of these types of 'slash' players as well. Lack of consistency and position focus can hurt a player's productivity and value, and that is difficult to rely on as a fantasy owner. Is he a RB, is he a WR, is he a QB? Will he ever excel in one position? Would you feel comfortable inserting him in your lineup not knowing what you'll get from week to week? I see him becoming a good flex player but nothing that you can rely on from week to week.
According to the Denver Post, Broncos QB Chris Simms took more first team reps in the camp session open to the media on Thursday. Many now believe Simms has a good shot to win the starting job in Denver over QB Kyle Orton.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: To be honest, I'm not sure what to make of Orton just yet now that he is in Denver. I think he could surprise, but it's not that hard to imagine Simms stealing away the job either. No one should be planning on starting either QB in 2009 -- Not yet at least.
Tavaner: I feel whomever wins this QB battle is going to have a LOT of sleeper value. I'd give the nod to Orton at this time, in spite of this report. I don't see how McDaniels can sit the guy they got in return for Cutler. Orton is a sleeper QB for me, a low-end QB1 in twelve team leagues.
X: Look, Orton is a good QB, but not a great one, so it should be no surprise that he is getting stiff competition from Simms already. At this point, Orton is not a good choice for a starting fantasy QB, so look in another direction.
According to reports, Jets rookie RB Shonn Greene (hamstring) returned to Jets practice on Thursday.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Greene was suffering from a mild hamstring injury, but clearly the injury wasn't a big deal. Greene could very well lead all running backs in rushing in 2009 and could be a top 20 overall pick in 2010 fantasy drafts. No player is a guarantee, especially because of injuries, but Greene has huge upside as of this moment.
According to reports, the Bucs might have interest in free agent WR Marvin Harrison.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Harrison, who will be 37 when the 2009 fantasy season begins, probably won't help many fantasy teams moving forward. If in the right spot, he might be worth owning in the deepest of leagues, but he is now the kind of guy you won't likely start even during a string of bye weeks.
X: Harrison could very well retire this season, so don't spend a high pick hoping for a return to glory. At best, Harrison is still a bench player and he has absolutely no dynasty value at this point.
According to Bob Papa of Sirius Satellite Radio, free-agent WR Plaxico Burress has turned down a plea deal against the advice of his lawyers. "This is what I've been told and what I've heard," Papa said on Sirius NFL Radio's "Morning Drive" program. "They worked out something where they had it down to about a three-month jail term with actually only two months served and about 1,500 hours of community service. And I think his lawyers felt that they had a pretty good deal. He doesn't want to go to jail at all. He shot down the deal - just like he shot down the new contract the Giants offered him to try to get his money back. He does not want to go to jail at all." Burress is currently facing weapons charges which carry a mandatory minimum of 3 1/2 years of jail time if he is convicted.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Fantasy owners shouldn't count on Burress playing in '09. I wouldn't recommend dynasty owners to cut him, as he will surely get a second chance in this league, but prepare to be without Burress this upcoming fantasy season and just hope for the best.
According to Miami Herald writer Armando Salguero, Dolphins coach Tony Sparano says that Ronnie Brown's conditioning has been "outstanding" this off-season. Brown, who suffered a torn ACL back in 2007, now has a full season of playing behind him.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Here is the deal… Brown has huge upside this year, especially given that he is falling into the third-round in some early 2009 mock drafts. In our most recently posted 2009 Staff Fantasy Football Mock Draft, I selected Brown in the second-round. Many have already called the pick out, suggesting that I took him too high. Well, before tearing his ACL at mid-season back in 2007, Brown was second only to Adrian Peterson. He was on pace for 2,265 ru/rec yards, nine 100-yard rushing performances and nine scores. The nine touchdowns wasn't fantastic, but those on-pace yardage totals were insane. Brown was insane! Brown only had 916 rushing yards rushing and 10TDs on 16 starts during his first season back from ACL surgery, but he was heavily involved in that new-look Dolphins attack and I have a feeling Brown is going to turn heads in 2009. I realize some backs don't always bounce-back from ACL tears, but Brown really looked great at times in that Wildcat offense last season. I say reach a bit for Brown this year if you have to, but definitely steal him away from other owners in your league if he falls to you in the third-round!
Zach: While I'm not as big of a fan of Brown this year as Smitty, I do think a lot of people are going to get him at a bargain value this season. He really did look good at times last year despite the overall poor numbers. I was actually shocked when I saw that he had 10 scores last year to be honest. Brown is a third-round steal for me, but I still might not take him in the second like Smitty would.
Tavaner: This should just about balance things out. I wish nothing but the best for Ronnie Brown the person, and pro football player. But I'm not a fantasy fan of Brown at all. Last year he had phenomenal production in games 3 & 5. In the twelve games afterward he broke 100 yards once with 70 & 67 yards in games 14/15 being his highs. He scored 1 td after week 10. I'd let someone else grab him in the 3rd round of a draft. He's a solid 4th rounder in a twelve team league for me.
According to Patriots.com, Patriots QB Tom Brady (ACL) had this to say when asked if he felt 100 percent healthy yet: "I feel as good as I could possibly feel. I don’t think about it. It doesn’t bother me doing anything. It’s feeling really good and it’s about as good as I can say. I’m real happy with where I’m at and I come out to these workouts happy to participate in them. That was something that was a big goal for me to be able to do."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: We firmly believe that Tom Brady could throw for 35+ scores in 2009. Why not? Randy Moss still has at least one elite year left in the tank. Since Brady will likely be the third or fourth quarterback taken on draft day, and because he will probably fall into the third- to fourth-round in most August drafts, the New England quarterback could be a huge steal this season when all is said and done.
Zach: I also like Brady in '09. Brady doesn't need scrambling ability and the last time I checked both Randy Moss and Wes Welker are still in New England. I'm expecting 35-40TDs out of Brady this upcoming season, with 12+ going to Moss.
Tavaner: The ACL injury to Brady may have been a boon to his career. In recent interviews his competitive fire's seem to have been rekindled and I'm on board with Smitty and Zach - 30+ tds to go along with 4000 passing yards. I expect him to have modest numbers in the first four games of his return, so keep an eye out for that owner who might be willing to move him when he doesn't have 12 td's after 4 games. You might be able to steal him for a reduced price.
According to IBABuzz.com, Raiders WR Chaz Schilens was the team's "best" and "most consistent" wide receiver on the field during the Raiders mandatory minicamp. suggests the latter. Schilens was the best and most consistent receiver on the field.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Schilens, who is a monster at 6-4, runs a 4.4 forty and has a 43-inch vertical. He is currently running with the first-team. Schilens should probably be grabbed in all medium-to-large dynasty leagues before it’s too late. Like so many upside players, the odds are against him, especially with JaMarcus Russell under center, but we say grab him now and decide if you want to hang onto him later.
According to ESPN, Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin has reportedly fired his agent Drew Rosenhaus.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Boldin apparently wants a new set of eyes on the task of getting him a trade or a new deal in Arizona. We don't see the Cardinals trading Boldin, or we at least do not see the Cardinals getting enough for the Pro Bowl receiver. We ultimately see the Cardinals and Boldin coming to terms on a new deal. It wouldn't shock us at all if Boldin also went back to Rosenhaus, or if this news was premature, but as of now it looks like Boldin will have a new agent shortly.
According to ESPN.com, free agent WR Matt Jones has reportedly been notified that he will not be suspended for violating a court-mandated drug program back in March. Jones only has has to pay a $50,000 fine. When Jones' agent, Dave Butz, was asked about the perception that his client has been a bust thus far in his NFL career, Butz had this to say: "Well, he caught 65 passes in 12 games last year for the Jaguars and he was their No. 1 receiver. If he wasn't hurt one game and didn't have the three-game suspension, he may have caught 80 to 90 balls."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: If this is accurate and Jones won’t face an NFL suspension in 2009, he should find a home quickly. In the right spot, Jones is capable of being a decent fantasy WR3 or WR4. We will keep you posted on his possible landing spots.
Tavaner: I view Jones similarly to Smitty. His talent isn't in question, his decision making is. With a talented QB he could develop into a WR2 by the last half of the year. Like everyone else, it's situation, situation, situation.
According to ESPN.com's Chris Mortensen, Saints TE Jeremy Shockey was taken to the hospital for dehydration. Shockey was attending a swimming pool party with several other NFL players in Las Vegas when this occurred. Shockey was treated and was discharged from the hospital.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: He is reportedly doing fine now, so fantasy owners can relax a bit. If more information becomes avalable on this, and if there is more to the story than this, we will surely let you know.
Tavaner: Shockey has fallen fast and hard. Dehydration? Ya, from drinking too much booze in the sun. If I'm desperate I grab him, otherwise, for me he's a borderline TE2 with upside.
According to NationalFootballPost.com's Michael Lombardi, Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno should be the team's number one running back by the start of the season. Lombardi anticipates that J.J. Arrington could be released shortly.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: This is no surprise, as the Broncos Moreno No. 12 overall. Moreno is going to be an elite talent in the NFL and it will all start this season. Hopefully the Broncos don't feed him 20+ carries per game right out of the gate, as that could lead to injury, or at least a slow finish to the 2009 fantasy season. Instead, the team should give Moreno roughly 12-15 carries per contest and by Week 8 or so, Moreno will be ready to close out the year like a beast. If all goes well and he finishes his rookie season strong, Moreno could very well be a top 8 overall pick entering his second NFL season. The same goes for Chris Wells of the Cardinals.
According to TampaBay.com, Bucs rookie WR Sammie Stroughter has everyone buzzing. "The guy has great feet. He's caught every ball that's touched his hands," Clayton said. "He's a natural hand-catcher. He snatches it. He's a smart guy who's caught onto the offense really well." Stroughter was productive in college with two 1,000-yard seasons. Bucs S Sabby Piscitelli, who used to go up against Stroughter at Oregon State, had this to say about the rookie: "I don't want to overhype anyone. But this kid can definitely contribute and help this team win," Piscitelli said. "That's just my opinion. He definitely brings something to the table that some don't. It's something you can't explain."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The seventh-round pick out of Oregon State is only 5-9, 189 pounds, but he has been lining up at slot with the first-team. He has reportedly been picking things up quickly and has not been intimidated when going up against veterans. No rookies are locks, especially receivers, but each and every season it seems a few studs emerge and they end up being the unexpected players grabbed in later rounds. Don't expect too much, but don't let someone else grab this kid in larger dynasty leagues. We have picked him up in both of our expert dynasty leagues.
According to Mike Triplett, of The Times-Picayune, Saints WR Marques Colston has microfracture surgery back in January of this year to repair a small hole that he had worn in his kneecap. Triplett predicts that Colston should be ready to roll by training camp.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: If accurate, this is alarming news -- Earlier reports suggested that Colston just had a scope back in January, but microfracture? It's tough to predict how this will affect Colston's long-term fantasy value. Colston is only 25, so is he young enough to bounce-back from such a procedure? Or, should fantasy owners fear more knee problems to follow? Which perspective is the right perspective? Well, no one knows this early in the off-season, but this is definitely alarming news and Colston's health needs to be monitored. The good news is that Colston is already on the field running, which suggests that he has a strong shot at being 100 percent by Week 1... unfortunately, though, we now have some long-term concerns with this news. Stay tuned.
According to Nola.com, Saints RB Reggie Bush is about 75 percent healed from his December microfracture procedure, which was performed on his left knee by orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews. Bush has missed 10 games during the past two years due to repeated issues with that oft-injured left knee. "I'm feeling really good; I'm about 75 percent," Bush said. "The coaches are pleased with my rehab and the way it's going. I'm pleased. I feel like I'm ahead of schedule. I'm pretty much doing everything right now (in offseason workouts)."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Bush is expected very limited when organized training activities begin on Tuesday. Bush expects to be a full-go during training camp, but every injured runner optimistically predicts a full recovery after a tremendously complex surgery. Will Bush be 100 percent? After microfracture? Probably not, but if he can start his 2009 season slowly, he should be a full-go by mid-season. His 2009 health will likely depend on how much he rushes that knee along. Pierre Thomas owners want Bush healthy, as the two play completely different roles in that Saints offense and a healthy Bush lining up on the outside is going to give Thomas the kind of success that Deuce McAllister had during Bush's rookie season in 2006.
According to PhiladelphiaEagles.com, Eagles TE Brent Celek is the unquestioned starter at tight end in 2009.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Celek grabbed the starting gig for the Eagles late in the 2008 season and finished with 27 catches for 318 yards, one hundred-yard performance and one touchdown. Celek did the real damage during the 2008 playoffs, where he pulled in 19 balls for 151 yards and three touchdowns. In the NFC title game, Celek grabbed 10 passes for 83 yards and a pair of touchdowns. If you want to invest cheaply at the tight end position in 2009, and if you're looking for guy to grab now in deeper dynasty leagues, Celek is your man!
According to Rotoworld, ESPN's Chris Mortensen is suggesting that the chances of Brett Favre playing for the Vikings in 2009 are "better than 50-50." These are the odds Mortensen reportedly gave if Favre in fact follows through with a late-week meeting with head coach Brad Childress.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Favre's torn biceps are a concern to many following the situation, not to mention Favre is not going to want to make a decision quickly. If Favre is forced to have surgery, he could miss OTAs, but really all of this seems a bit premature. We will keep you posted when more info rolls in.
According to NJ.com, the Jets "could hardly contain themselves" when RB Shonn Greene was still on the board after day one of the 2009 NFL Draft. According to NJ.com, that night after rounds one and two, and into Sunday morning, the organization determined by a unanimous vote that they had to do whatever needed to be done to land Greene. Jets running back coach Anthony Lynn had Greene (1,850 yards and 20 TDs) rated as his top running back prospect from this 2009 running back class. Jets coach Rex Ryan reportedly praised Greene's vision and compared him Curtis Martin. "This is a special talent," Ryan said. "We want to run the football and this guy gives us that kind of 'ground and pound' that we're looking for."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Check out our recent Player Spotlights on Greene and also check out our newest set of 2009 Rookie Running Back Rankings. Greene sits at the No. 3 spot and we actually just boldly pulled off a move to acquire Greene in our 2009 Dynasty Expert League. We traded Joseph Addai, who we still feel can have a very solid 2009, for the pick that landed us Greene. Greene is such a beast and could very well be this year's version of Chris Johnson. No, he plays nothing like Johnson and the two backs have a completely different frame and way of playing the game -- What we mean is that Greene could be the biggest surprise and steal in 2009 fantasy football rookie drafts. He couldn't be in a more ideal situation for the long-term -- Check out our Rookie Rankings article for more on this.
The Eagles have selected Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin No. 19 overall in the 2009 NFL Draft.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: This is a great spot for Maclin, who could be in the most ideal situation out of all three of the first three rookie WRs taken in this 2009 NFL Draft. Darrius Heyward-Bey is in Oakland, which is an awful fantasy environment if you ask us, and Michael Crabtree is in San Francisco, which is solid for the long-term... Maclin is going to be immediately inserted into a solid situation, where DeSean Jackson is going to command defensive attention on every snap. Nice move for the Eagles organization and a nice landing spot for future Maclin owners.
The Denver Broncos have selected Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno No. 11 overall in the 2009 NFL Draft.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Wow. What a bold move by Denver. They had a lot of other needs and addressed the running back position in a handful of ways this off-season, so it's strange they would throw more money at the position. That said, we love Moreno and we believe the rusher is ultimately in a good situation and is surrounded by mediocre talent. Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan could certainly steal some early 2009 touches from Moreno, and the rookie may not start out of the gate, but Denver isn't a bad long-term landing spot at all. The great part for Moreno fantasy owners is that Buckhalter and LaMont will now be cheap to acquire.
The 49ers have selected Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Oakland made a huge mistake passing on Michael Crabtree and going with Darrius Heyward-Bey, but we wouldn't have it any other way. Crabtree has the monster fantasy appeal and he avoided possible disaster landing in Oakland, so this is great news for all who are planning on drafting the future NFL stud. This is great news for the 49ers organization and this move will help Frank Gore a ton, as Crabtree is going to command defensive attention.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have selected Virginia OT Eugene Monroe.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Amazing news for MJD owners - Steven Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew owners have to be happy thus far in the 2009 NFL Draft. Both have both just been handed offensive line upgrades.
The Oakland Raiders have just selected Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey with the No. 7 overall pick.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: What a surprise, as Michael Crabtree was on the board. We liked Heyward-Bey, but it's tough to be excited about him in Oakland (at least for 2009). Fantasy worlds have to be excited that Crabtree did not land in Oakland.
The 2009 NFL Draft Results so far: 1. Lions - Matt Stafford (QB Georgia), 2. Rams - Jason Smith (OT Baylor), 3. Chiefs - Tyson Jackson (DE LSU), 4. Seahawks - Aaron Curry (LB Wake Forest), 5. Jets - Mark Sanchez (QB USC), 6. Bengals - Andre Smith (OT Alabama).
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Again, what a move by the Jets! The Raiders are now on the clock and Michael Crabtree is available.. please don't, Oakland! Please.
The New York Jets have traded up in the 2009 NFL Draft to select USC QB Mark Sanchez. The Browns received DE Kenyon Coleman, QB Brett Ratliff, S Abram Elam and the 17th and 57th overall picks in this 2009 NFL Draft. The Jets received No. 5 overall, where they then selected Sanchez.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: What a move for the Jets and we think Sanchez is going to thrive in New York. Sanchez is the real deal and what a great situation for him!
With the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions selected Georgia QB Matthew Stafford. The St. Louis Rams selected Baylor OT Jason Smith with the No. 2 overall selection. The Kansas City Chiefs selected LSU DE Tyson Jackson with the No. 3 overall pick.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Calvin Johnson owners have to be happy with the long-term promise Stafford brings to the table, but the real winners here so far are Steven Jackson owners. With the addition of Jason Brown this off-season and now with this offensive move, that St. Louis offensive line is already transformed - Jackson has top two overall fantasy upside in 2009.
According to reports, Drew Rosenhaus, who is the agent for Anquan Boldin, stated on ESPN on Saturday that he expects Boldin to be traded this weekend. "By the end of the day, Anquan will probably be with another team," said Rosenhaus.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: We're not saying that Rosenhaus isn't money, and he can certainly ink deals like no other agent in the NFL, but everything he says is to help promote his client, so it's tough read into this. We will keep you posted on the Boldin situation as the news rolls in. Don't forget to follow our 2009 NFL Draft coverage on the homepage. We will post results as they happen in the first-round.
According to JSOnline.com, in a poll consisting of 15 NFL personnel, Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno ranked No. 1 out of all the running backs in this incoming 2009 class. Each participating in the poll was asked to rate the top five backs and a first-place vote was worth five points, a second worth four and so on. Moreno edged Chris Wells 67-64. Donald Brown finished third with 37 points, LeSean McCoy finished with 32, Shonn Greene with 19 and Andre Brown with four.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: We've been saying for months now that Moreno might just be the next top five fantasy football running back. For more on this topic, view Moreno's recently added Player Spotlight!
According to reports, the Jaguars have signed WR Torry Holt to a three-year deal worth $20 million.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: According to the reports, there is no signing bonus but the first season is fully guaranteed. While there were better places to land from a fantasy perspective, this is a great football move for the Jaguars. Holt could have another top 20-type season left in the tank, so don't count the guy out if you're in the middle rounds of your upcoming July-August drafts - Holt will make a solid WR investment entering 2009.
According to Rotoworld.com, ESPN's Sal Paolantonio is reporting that the Eagles are set on drafting Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno and the organization might be willing to trade up to get him.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The Eagles hold the No. 21 pick, so Moreno might not fall. Teams ahead of the Eagles who might consider drafting Moreno include: New Orleans (No. 14), Houston (15), San Diego (16), the Jets (17). While this report could end up being accurate, April is the time of smoke screens and usually when a report like this surfaces, another report comes out a day later suggesting the opposite. Westbrook, as we state in our recent Spotlight, is very undervalued so far this off-season and fantasy owners need to take advantage of this heading into August. Even if the team drafts Moreno or Wells, Westy is looking like a steal heading into 2009 redraft leagues.
According to JSOnline.com, eighteen scouts were asked to rank the 2009 rookie wide receiver class on a scale from one-to-five, with a first-place vote worth five points, a second-place vote worth four points, and so on. Michael Crabtree led the group with 16 first-place votes and 86 points and Jeremy Maclin finished second with 62 points. Percy Harvin was third with 50 points, Darrius Heyward-Bey finished with 36 points, Hakeem Nicks finished with 15 points and Kenny Britt finished with 13 points.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The scouts reportedly thought that Heyward-Bey had the highest "bust" potential, but we honestly think that this tag belongs to Harvin. According to reports, Florida WR Percy Harvin tested positive for marijuana at February's Scouting Combine and he has been slipping on draft boards for over a week now. As for Maclin, he has a grip of potential and could end up being a solid NFL receiver very soon. His landing spot will determine a lot, though.
According to ProFootballTalk, questions are swirling around NFL circles right now about WR Anquan Boldin possibly having a chronic hip condition that could shorten his career.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Boldin missed time back in 2007 with a hip injury and has had just two 16-game seasons in six NFL campaigns. In fact, he has missed eight games over the past two seasons, which is half of an NFL season. We're not too sure what to make of this new "chronic hip" information, but Boldin does have an aggressive style of play and we wouldn't be all that shocked if he did have a shorter NFL career (at least at an elite level). Whether or not that will directly relate to his hip we do not know, but we will be sure to let you know when more information surfaces on this topic. As for 2009, fantasy owners should expect roughly top 10-12 fantasy numbers in non-PPR formats - In PPR leagues, slot Boldin in that 9-10 range. This is all assuming Boldin is in AZ in 2009... if he is elsewhere, he could move down a handful of spots depending on the offense he plays in.
According to ESPN, the Jaguars and free agent WR Torry Holt are reportedly close to getting a deal done, but nothing has yet been finalized, sources tell ESPN's Chris Mortensen.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Holt knows that he needs to take advantage of any solid offers that come along, as teams will soon start turning to the upcoming 2009 NFL Draft in order to fill wide receiver needs. Holt might have a decent year left in the tank, but he is clearly not the receiver he once was. Stay tuned.
According to Nola.com, Saints WR Lance Moore underwent surgery on Monday to repair a dislocated shoulder and a torn labrum. The receiver suffered the injuries while lifting weights during team workouts over a week ago. Dr. James Andrews performed the surgery. Moore is expected to miss the team's mini-camp for rookies and veterans June 5-7, but he is expected to be ready for the start of training camp in late July. When asked about Moore's surgery and status, Saints coach Sean Payton text messaged this response Thursday to The Times-Picayune: "Yes . . . Andrews on Monday . . . left shoulder . . . miss minicamp . . . ready for training camp."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: This isn't good news, no matter what Payton says. Everyone involved is obviously going to have an optimistic attitude about such a situation, but fantasy owners will want to monitor Moore's progress this off-season before they heavily invest in his services come August. He could bounce-back 100 percent, we're not saying that this is impossible, but our guess is that he won't be quite 100 percent come July. Stay tuned.
Plain Dealer Columnist Terry Pluto reportedly expects Browns WR Braylon Edwards to get traded to the Giants.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Given that Edwards has one year left and given all of his drops in 2008, the Browns probably won't hesitate to move the receiver if the price is right. That doesn't mean it won't workout perfectly for the Giants. Edwards is an elite receiver, and if in the right situation he has top five fantasy wide receiver upside. There are a lot of conflicting reports floating around on this situation. Some sources suggest that a deal will eventually happen because Edwards doesn't even want to be in Cleveland. Other sources suggest that Edwards' contract demands are too high. Our guess is that Edwards will settle on something reasonable and a deal will eventually get done before this month's 2009 NFL Draft. We will keep you posted.
According to PFT, a Giants-Browns trade that would send WR Braylon Edwards packing is "unlikely" to go down. There are several reports floating around that suggest that a deal could happen before the 2009 NFL Draft, but clearly there are now conflicting reports.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Some of this could be posturing and it could be to either get a deal done or just set the stage for a future trade involving Edwards - The NFL Draft can do that! April is a time for false alarms and major trade/draft posturing. According to the reports talked about by PFT, a deal might not get done until the Browns lower their asking price and Edwards lowers his contractual expectations. We will keep you posted. Edwards owners should be hoping a Browns-Giants deal gets done.
According to YahooSports.com, Browns WR Braylon Edwards is expected to be traded to the Giants before the NFL draft on April 25-26, this coming from a pair of sources with knowledge of the situation and negotiations. “The Giants are going to have to up the offer a bit, but [the Browns] are willing to move him,” said one of two sources with knowledge of the talks between the teams.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: This would be a great move for the Giants and this move would certainly help Edwards owners. The Browns offensive attack could be a bit limited in 2009, and that is if Edwards stays in a Browns uniform - Without Edwards, that Browns attack will crumble, but Edwards should get back to top 5-10WR form in New York.
According to StLouisRams.com, the Rams will likely be a run-heavy offense in 2009. The team is expected to make running back a priority in this year's upcoming NFL Draft, as the team needs a solid back-up and change of pace for starter Steven Jackson.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: If you're a Jackson owner, don't freak out about the Rams seeking a back-up rusher. Coach Steve Spagnuolo and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur will most likely try and get back to a run-first offense, so there will be plenty of carries to go around in 2009. In fact, if Jackson can stay healthy, we wouldn't be shocked at all if he led the league in either carries or rushing yards (or both). Jackson is inside our top 5 overall in all leagues and formats entering '09.
According to NY.com, restricted free agent WR Miles Austin visited the Jets on Friday contrary to an earlier report. The Jets did not sign Austin to an offer sheet, but the Friday meeting reportedly went well and the organization told Austin that an offer will be on the way in the coming days.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: If the Jets do in fact make an offer and the Cowboys do not match the offer within the seven days, Dallas would receive a second-round pick from the Jets as compensation. Dallas has extended a one-year deal to Austin worth $1.54 million. The restricted free agent signing period for the NFL ends on April 17th. We will keep you posted.
According to ESPN.com, Chiefs RB Larry Johnson, who recently lost salary guarantees as a result of a lost grievance hearing, has been working with a personal trainer this off-season. Despite losing contract guarantees, Johnson seems committed to the team and the upcoming NFL season.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: L.J. is obviously attending the Chiefs' off-season program in order to win over new coach Todd Haley and general manager Scott Pioli. We're not saying that L.J. doesn't honestly want to play with the Chiefs in 2009, but it's obvious that L.J. knows that his upcoming salary, which is no longer guaranteed if the Chiefs now elect to cut the runner, is more than L.J. would get if he was a free agent in search of a new deal. It almost feels like things will either go extremely well for L.J. in 2009 or extremely bad. It almost feels like there will be no in between -- Stay tuned.
According to DenverPost.com writer Mike Klis, if 2009 NFL season started today, and assuming every Broncos rusher was healthy, Correll Buckhalter would likely get the team's first snap, J.J. Arrington would come in on passing downs and LaMont Jordan would be the team's short yardage back.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Honestly, we don't see how anyone can predict this situation at this point in the off-season. This sounds crazy, but the running back situation in Denver was easier to predict when Mike Shanahan was coaching. This is current situation is a fantasy disaster. So what is our advice at this stage in the off-season? Our Advice: Stay far away from this entire situation in 2009, unless of course you're buying extremely low, or drafting extremely late. If you ask us, the top late grab out of all the Denver rushers is Ryan Torain. He needs to prove that he can enter the upcoming season healthy and ready to rumble, but he is our eventual dark horse this year. If the price is right, Buckhalter might be valuable early on this season.
The Rams have acquired WR Laurent Robinson from the Falcons in exchange for draft pick swaps in the fifth- and sixth- rounds of this year's upcoming 2009 NFL Draft.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Robinson might actually compete for a starting spot across Donnie Avery this season. Make no mistake, Avery is the Rams' No. 1 receiver heading into 2009 and beyond, but Robinson might be skilled enough to beat out both Keenan Burton and Derek Stanley for the team's WR2 spot.
According to Rotoworld.com, the NFLPA announced on Monday that the Chiefs have won their grievance against RB Larry Johnson for breach of contract. Kansas City is no longer obligated to pay L.J. his previously guaranteed money of $3.75 million.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: There was talk that the Chiefs would release Johnson if they won this grievance, but the current buzz suggests mix reactions on that topic. Fantasy owners need to be worried if L.J. stays, though, as there could be a ton of friction between the runner and the organization. The best option for dynasty and keeper league owners is if Johnson gets released and signs elsewhere to start. Stay tuned.
According to Cleveland.com, the possibility of a trade that would send Browns QB Brady Quinn to Denver still exists.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The current speculation is that the Broncos may try and move up from the No. 12 pick overall using their two current first-round draft picks (No. 12 and No. 18) - This would help them land Mark Sanchez of Southern California. The other option for the Browns could be trading the No. 18 overall selection to the Browns for Quinn (who was taken 22nd in 2007). Stay tuned.
According to ESPN, the Giants have released Plaxico Burress.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Burress, who is facing weapons charges and possible jail time, has hit bottom. It looks like the Giants have had enough - Fantasy owners have as well. Look for the Giants draft a receiver, trade for a receiver or sign a guy like Torry Holt. Burress could salvage his career at some point, but because he could be facing possible jail time and some sort of NFL suspension, it's safe to say counting on him playing in 2009 is a stretch.
According to ESPN.com, Titans coach Jeff Fisher expects RB Chris Johnson to be more involved in the Titans' offense in 2009. Fisher said this on the matter: "We all have responsibilities to utilize players' talents and abilities. I thought we did a good job with Chris last year. We didn't get as much done with him as we wanted because it was his first year and he was learning. We're going to expand on what we did with him. Any time you get someone with his ability, you want to create mismatches and move him around. I think you will see that happen with him [Harvin] depending on where he goes."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: As a rookie, Johnson rushed the football 251 times for 1,228 yards (4.9 avg.) and nine touchdowns. He also pulled in 43 receptions for 260 yards and one receiving touchdown. Johnson's 1,488 and 10 is a monster rookie campaign and fantasy owners should expect an even better line in 2009. If relatively healthy for most of this upcoming fantasy season, Johnson should have no problem exceeding 1,600 total yards and racking up at least 12 total scores. He should total at least 55 receptions, a stat that will start to turn Johnson into a PPR stud. Our newest Player Spotlight on Chris Johnson talks about his increasing trade value - Check it out!
According to KansasCity.com, Chiefs RB Larry Johnson has a grievance hearing with the organization on Wednesday. The Chiefs claim that Johnson's one-game suspension last season for violating the league's personal-conduct policy was a breach of contract and that frees them from having to pay the runner $3.75 million of guaranteed money.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: According to KansasCity.com, one source close to the situation is saying that if the Chiefs win the grievance, they would likely release the rusher. Even if Johnson wins his grievance and stays in Kansas City in 2009, L.J. owners have to be worried. It's clear that the organization has lost faith in the running back and even if L.J. is not released, one has to think that the Chiefs might immediately implement a RBBC approach this upcoming year (and that is if L.J. isn't suspended due to his recent legal issues).
According to KansasCity.com, Chiefs RB Larry Johnson pleaded guilty today to two counts of disturbing the peace. These two counts were two separate situations last year, which involved women at Kansas City night clubs.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Johnson was handed two years of probation and if the Chiefs running back completes the probation without further incident, the guilty plea will be removed from his public record. Johnson could possibly get handed an NFL suspension as well, which would certainly alter his 2009 fantasy value. Why? Well, an L.J. suspension opens the door a bit for Jamaal Charles. Is Charles a full-time back? Probably not, but a heavy dose of Charles early on could create a RBBC in K.C. to start the year.
According to Nola.com, Cowboys Owner Jerry Jones continues to talk about WR Miles Austin. Jones stated that one of the main reasons he ended up releasing WR Terrell Owens was because he expects Austin to develop.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: We like Austin a lot from a fantasy perspective - Make sure you grab the youngster off the waiver wire if for some reason he is available in your league! He could end up putting up extremely solid fantasy WR3 numbers in his fourth NFL season.
According to NFL.com, the entire Rams offense will be built around RB Steven Jackson in 2009. “There isn’t any secret — our best player on the team is Steven Jackson,” Rams executive vice president Billy Devaney said. “We’re going to build our offense around Steven Jackson. There isn’t any secret about that. … First and foremost, we’re going to try to run the ball and try to establish ourselves as a strong running team.”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: As you will read in Steven Jackson's most recent Player Spotlight, the Rams have made some blocking improvements already, signing former Browns center Jason Brown... Actually, Brown signed a deal that makes him the league’s highest-paid center. The Rams also signed FB Mike Karney. Jackson is a top 3-5 fantasy running back in 2009. For more on Jackson, and where we rank him in dynasty formats, check out his most recent Player Spotlight under our Player Spotlights section!
According to PressDemocrat.com, the 49ers expect second-year WR Josh Morgan to emerge as a "top-flight" receiver in 2009.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Morgan is a talented receiver and he should be owned in all dynasty and keeper leagues. He isn't a lock to be a "top-flight" receiver in this league, but he is worth the risk and the upside is there! Check out our most recent Player Spotlight on Josh Morgan.
According to ESPN.com, Joey Galloway has signed a one-year deal with the New England Patriots.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Galloway, 37, won't be a big factor in the fantasy department in 2009, but he will likely help Randy Moss get open. Galloway's speed can only help that offense.
According to Pro Football Talk, at his Pro Day today, Ohio State stud RB Chris Wells ran speedy times reportedly between 4.34 and 4.46. The runner did this in front of 29 NFL teams.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Clearly we don't have official times just yet, but that's extremely impressive. If Wells did post a time under 4.40, he could be the first back taken on draft day! Some call this running back class weak in 2009, but we feel that this class could produce at least two top 10 fantasy running backs of the future (Moreno and Wells being the leading two candidates).
According to YahooSports.com, Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers have agreed on a restructured deal that will have Tomlinson staying in San Diego in 2009. The runner approved the deal on Tuesday night. Some of Tomlinson's 2009 salary is now turned into a "signing bonus" and he will receive the full $6.725M. The runner's 2010-2011 salaries have been reduced, but can be reached by way of incentives.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Tomlinson will surrender some snaps to Sproles in 2009, but don't let LT2 pass you buy in the second-round in 2009 redraft leagues. That could change as the off-season moves along, but for now, LT2 looks like a steal heading into August. Is he a top 5 overall pick still? No! Does he still have top 10RB upside? Absolutely.
According to Pro Football Talk, when Saints QB Drew Brees was asked whether or not LaDainian Tomlinson should accept a contract reduction, Brees had this to say: “I don’t think he should accept less money from the Chargers at this point,” Brees said, “because look at his track record . . . . Many people could say he had a decline this year, but I disagree with that. He was banged up for the majority of the year, and I think that’s just part of the game at times. Brees also added: “I mean the guy hasn’t missed one start his entire NFL career, so if you’re going to sit here and tell me he’s, you know, not a durable guy, then you’re crazy. Like I said I think he’s still got a lot of motivation. I think he’s got a lot of fight and fire left in him. And you know he can still be a very productive player. So I don’t see any reason why he should be taking a pay cut at this point.”
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The interesting part was when Brees started talking about the two reuniting in New Orleans. “I mean, come on, it’s an easy question,” Brees said. “I’d love to have him in New Orleans. I’d love to be his teammate again. I think L.T.’s got a lot of great years left in him so we’ll see what happens.” Brees also said: “For me, I’m just waiting for the opportunity if he is available to come and snatch him.” According to Rotoworld, the National Football Post reported last week that the Saints would have a "high level of interest" if Tomlinson for some reason became available.
According to NFL.com, WR Terrell Owens has signed a one-year deal with the Bills worth $6.5 million.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: A press conference is scheduled for 6:15 p.m. ET at Bills headquarters. Great move for Buffalo - Many teams could look foolish passing on this opportunity. There were better landing spots for Owens' owners, but Owens could easily put together one more top 12 fantasy WR season in Buffalo this upcoming season.
According to FoxSports, multiple sources are reporting that free agent WR Terrell Owens is meeting with Bills officials today at Bills headquarters. According to one source, Buffalo will be offering a one-year contract.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Owens would have more fantasy value with a big-time quarterback, but this wouldn't be the worst scenario. We will keep you posted.
According to numerous reports, the Cowboys have released Terrell Owens.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Owens' roster bonus was not due until June, but clearly the Cowboys just wanted to move in another direction. Some teams will avoid him, but don't expect Owens to be without a home for very long. In the right spot, Owens could still put together one more top 10 fantasy WR season. Roy Williams value just exploded and Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton both get bumps in the fantasy value department as well. Austin has a lot of talent - Make sure he isn't a free agent in any of your deeper leagues.
According to Cleveland.com, two rumors are circling around the Cleveland area suggesting that the organization is considering trading QB Brady Quinn and Shaun Rogers for Denver QB Jay Cutler and a third-round draft choice. Another rumor has the Browns sending Braylon Edwards to the Giants for pass rusher Mathias Kiwanuka.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: We doubt that Edwards gets traded - The Browns would have no receiving weapons left. The Cutler deal seems a bit more realistic, but Denver would be crazy to downgrade their passing attack in hopes that Quinn can someday soon reach Cutler's level of play. If we had to guess, both of these rumors will turn out to be just that - rumors. Stay tuned, though, in case we're wrong! Culter is awfully mad at the Broncos organization.
According to ESPN.com, Broncos WR Brandon Marshall was arrested booked into the Atlanta City Jail on Sunday on a disorderly conduct charge.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Marshall was reportedly involved in a fight of some kind - Marshall posted a $300 bond and was reportedly released. This is Marshall's fourth arrest since March of 2006. This is not good news for Marshall owners. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell can suspend Marshall even without a conviction, so the Broncos receiver could very well be suspended for a handful of games in 2009. Stay tuned for more on this one, as we still have a whole lot of confirming and fact finding to do before we starting making concrete predictions!
According to reports, incoming rookie WR Michael Crabtree will undergo foot surgery on Wednesday rather than wait until after his pro day.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Smart move by Crabtree, we're just wondering what took him so long to realize he doesn't need to run the forty in order to go inside the top 10 overall in April's 2009 NFL Draft. Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Roddy White didn't run the forty.... and even if Crabtree ran it and ran slow, Anquan Boldin actually ran a 4.72 at the 2003 combine. When you are an elite talent like Crabtree, the forty doesn't mean much if you ask us. Crabtree will likely be out 6-10 weeks but should be ready by May. Great move and teams are more concerned about him being healthy come training camp vs. running a forty that doesn't mean much.
According to reports, the 49ers have signed WR Brandon Jones to a five-year deal worth $16.5 million - $5.4 million is guaranteed.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: If you're in a deep dynasty league, you may want to grab Jones. We like Jones a lot and this deal almost guarantees him a starting spot. That 49ers offense will be constructed around Frank Gore, one reason we love Gore this year, but Jones could be a nice WR5 or WR6 in 2009. Don't drop anyone solid for the receiver, but just consider picking him up if you're in need at the position.
According to numerous reports, the Buccaneers have acquired TE Kellen Winslow from the Browns in exchange for undisclosed draft selections.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The picks are thought to be a second-round pick and another later pick, but that information has yet to be confirmed. This move doesn't really help Winlsow owners, as we feel the Browns have a better quarterback situation than Tampa, but Winslow still had top 5-7TE upside heading into 2009. Some might have him ranked higher, others lower, but that's where we have him currently slotted.
According to Projo.com, free agent RB Fred Taylor, who has visited with both the Patriots and Bills recently, is believed to soon sign with New England. Bill Belichick has had great things to say about Taylor in the past, so this move makes sense. "Fred Taylor, you just can't say enough about him. He's a great runner. He's a strong, powerful guy. [He's] very nifty in the open field, excellent blitz pick up, one of the better blockers that we've seen in the league from his position. He's a complete player [and] does a great job," Belichick said.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Taylor might only have one solid season left, but New England is the perfect landing spot for such a back. That offense will set things up nicely for the 33-year old runner. Don't draft Taylor as a RB2 or anything, but he should do relatively well in a Patriots uniform - Stay tuned for an official signing.
According to Rotoworld, ESPN's John Clayton is reporting that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has decided to keep WR Terrell Owens heading into 2009.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The organization was thinking of trading, or cutting, Owens this off-season, but clearly Jones realizes how valuable the stud is. Smart move if you ask us. Owens, 35, should have one more elite season left in him. He could have two solid years left, but because so many fantasy owners out there see Owens as a potential bust for this upcoming season, make sure you put Owens on your bargain list come August. Last year Owens finished with 69 receptions, 1,052 yards and 10 scores - Not a bad season at all. Expect similar numbers in 2009.
According to Rotoworld, incoming rookie WR Michael Crabtree told the NFL Network set on Tuesday that he is considering having told the at the Combine that he's considering having foot surgery soon, rather than later after running at his March 26 Pro Day.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: We feel that Crabtree is going to go inside the top ten no matter what, so putting the surgery off will only set him back in 2009. Larry Fitzgerald didn't run the forty during the 2004 combine and Anquan Boldin ran a 4.72 at the 2003 combine. The forty doesn't tell all and Crabtree doesn't need to run it to get drafted inside that top 10!
According to ESPN.com's John Clayton, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Tennessee are all thought to be possible landing spots for free agent Marvin Harrison.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Given that Harrison has clearly lost a step, the Eagles would be the best fit if you ask us. At his age, , he is going to need a good QB to toss him the rock. Chicago would make sense too given their receivers. Even if signed as a team's WR3 in 2009, Harrison might not even have fantasy WR3 potential in this upcoming fantasy season.
According to HoustonTexans.com, the Texans are expected to trade quarterback Sage Rosenfels to the Vikings in exchange for a draft pick in this upcoming 2009 NFL Draft.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: There is no official announcement on this just yet, but you can be sure that we will keep you posted. Rosenfels is a very good quarterback if you ask us, so this move would be HUGE for the Vikes!
According to a Seattle Times blog, WR Michael Crabtree will have surgery on his fractured foot, but after he runs at his Texas Tech Pro Day. "I come here today involving my injury report," Crabtree said. "It's an old injury I've been having. I've never had any pain in it. I will run my 40 and after I do that, I'm going to do surgery. But I'm looking forward to going to the next level. So that's it."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: This isn't the best decision if you ask us, unless he runs an unbelievable forty time during his Pro Day. If he waits until late March to have the surgery, he will likely be out up until training camp. Still, when all is said and done, Crabtree is without a doubt our number one ranked incoming rookie receiver. If all goes well with his surgery and recovery, even with him waiting until after March 26th to have the surgery, Crabtree has elite fantasy WR written all over him.
According to DallasNews.com, incoming rookie WR Michael Crabtree, who has a stress fracture in his foot, does not plan to have foot surgery after all. "I don't know where that report came from," Crabtree said. "It [stress fracture] has been there for about a year and it's never caused me any pain. I can play with it the rest of my life. It won't stop me from running. I'm going to run."
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: If Crabtree had the surgery, he would only be sidelined for 10 weeks. This just got a bit more interesting and controversial. Get on our Fantasy Football Forums and join in the debate... will this hurt Crabtree's draft stock? Is the receiver making a mistake by not having the surgery?
According to NFL.com, incoming rookie WR Michael Crabtree has a slight stress fracture in his left foot and the receiver may require surgery in order to insert a screw in the foot. The injury/surgery is expected to sideline Crabtree for at least 10 weeks, which jeopardizes his ability to perform at his NFL pro day. According to reports, doctors believe that if Crabtree takes the necessary precautions, the receiver will be recovered in time for training camp.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: The good news is that Crabtree is not the first player to battle through this injury, as Cowboys WR Terrell Owens had a fracture before having a screw inserted into his foot. More relevant is the case of Jonathan Stewart just last year. Stewart actually opted for the same surgery that Crabtree will soon undergo and the Panthers still drafted drafted him No. 13 overall. It's tough to say what will happen with this situation as we enter the 2009 NFL Draft. Obviously Crabtree's progress heading into April will have a lot to do with whether or not teams trust the receiver's foot. Crabtree could still go in the top five overall on draft day, or he could slip a bit to an even better passing team. It's tough to evaluate this situation this early. For now, Crabtree is still our No. 1 receiver from this 2009 draft class.
According to reports, incoming rookie RB Knowshon Moreno weighed in at 217 pounds at the Combine Friday, which is roughly ten pounds of weight gain.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Moreno is No. 8 overall on our 2009 Dynasty Player Rankings. Those rankings are a staff average, Smitty here at FFX has him higher than that. View the recently added Knowshon Moreno Player Spotlight that Smitty just added to the Site! With Moreno hitting the weights and gaining that additional ten pounds, the former Bulldog might be the next elite NFL stud at the running back position. Congrats to anyone with the No. 1 overall rookie pick in 2009 fantasy football leagues - This is the guy to take and remember that you heard top 8-10 overall dynasty rankings projections here!
According to WGRZ.com, Bills RB Marshawn Lynch will be charged with misdemeanor gun possession following his arrest in Culver City last week.
FFX Fantasy Takes:
Smitty: Lynch is actually being charged with three misdemeanors, but that is a good thing for Lynch because he should avoid jail time. Lynch may have caught a break on the legal end of things, but an NFL suspension is very likely. How many games? We don't know yet. Stay tuned, but Lynch has probably secured a lot of his dynasty value (for now) and now the runner just faces some possible missed time in this upcoming 2009. This news really helps those that still want to unload Lynch, as one is sure to have a good shot at acquiring either Joseph Addai or Ronnie Brown for the Bills running back. With this news, you may be able to get one of those runners and some!
The opinions expressed in the Breaking News items are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Fantasy Football Xtreme, SportsNotion, LLC, or any of its subsidiaries. Sports Notion, LLC and its owners, employees, writers, and contributors make no claim to the reliability of any information posted on this site and are not responsible for the content provided by any external links or sources linked to our site.
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